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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Dec 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID-19 Tracker, Dec 4, 2023
The U.S. surge is worsening faster than anticipated.

Today:
🔹1.2 million daily infections
🔹1 in 38 infectious (2.6%)

In 4 weeks (New Year's Day):
🔹1.8 million daily infections
🔹1 in 26 infectious (3.9%)

1/
 CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR December 4, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 865 New Daily Cases 1,258,000 % of Population Infectious 2.63% (1 in 38 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 63,000 to 252,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR January 1, 2024 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 1,284 (49% higher) New Daily Cases 1,869,000 % of Population Infectious 3.91% (1 in 26 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 93,000 to 374,000
You'll note the diverging forecasts. Biobot #wastewater levels increased more than anticipated this week, and they updated last week's numbers upward too.

The cheetah forecast (yellow) assumes this week's levels will also get revised upward like last week's. The turtle model (green) ignores this week's data as an aberration. The real-time forecast (purple), which assumes all real-time estimates are accurate, is barely visible behind the red line. The red line is the composite average of all 3 forecasts.

You'll notice the blue line (wastewater levels) and red line (forecast) overlap marginally. Biobot reports levels for Nov 29, and we carry them forward in the forecasting model through Dec 4 (today). Transmission is accelerating so much, usually this 5 day lag isn't even visible graphically.

2/
 Zooming in on the forecast. See prior tweet for more detail.
This table shows how additional social contacts increase risk today (Dec 4).

🔥10 people (daycare, team meeting) = about a 1 in 4 chance someone has infectious COVID

🔥🔥30 people (large K-12 class) = over a 50% chance someone has infectious COVID

3/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 2.6% 2 5.2% 3 7.7% 4 10.1% 5 12.5% 6 14.8% 7 17.0% 8 19.2% 9 21.3% 10 23.4% 15 33.0% 20 41.3% 25 48.7% 30 55.1% 35 60.7% 40 65.6% 50 73.6% 75 86.5% 100 93.1% 150 98.2% 200 99.5% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
This table shows how socializing on Christmas will drive the worst of the winter surge. Estimates are revised upward today (Dec 4).

⭐️Large fam gathering (20 people) = over a 50% chance someone's infectious

⭐️⭐️Large restaurant/flight = near-certain someone's infectious

4/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.5% 2 6.8% 3 10.1% 4 13.2% 5 16.2% 6 19.2% 7 22.0% 8 24.7% 9 27.3% 10 29.8% 15 41.2% 20 50.8% 25 58.8% 30 65.5% 35 71.1% 40 75.8% 50 83.0% 75 93.0% 100 97.1% 150 99.5% 200 99.9% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
This table shows the risk of socializing on New Year's Day. Finger crossed, the surge should peak around then.

Not a great time to party. 🎉🎉

5/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.9% 2 7.7% 3 11.3% 4 14.7% 5 18.1% 6 21.3% 7 24.4% 8 27.3% 9 30.2% 10 32.9% 15 45.0% 20 55.0% 25 63.1% 30 69.8% 35 75.2% 40 79.7% 50 86.4% 75 95.0% 100 98.1% 150 99.7% 200 >99.9% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
Zooming out to the full pandemic shows the harm of the 8th U.S. Covid wave.

🔹More daily infections than 89% of the pandemic
🔹>25x more actual than reported cases
🔹>60,000 #LongCovid cases/day eventually resulting from these infections
🔹Winter peak like last year

6/ There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 88.9% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR December 4, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 865 New Daily Cases 1,258,000 % of Population Infectious 2.63% (1 in 38 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 63,000 to 252,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR December 4, 2023 New Weekly Cases 8,800,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 440,000 to 1,761,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF December 4, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 214,388,450 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,719,000 to 42,878,000
Here's the full PMC Dashboard for Dec 4 to Jan 1.

You can read the full report here:

Thank you for your continued questions, suggestions, gratitude, and sharing across other platforms. Please offer any success stories to encourage others.

7/ pmc19.com/data/
There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 88.9% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR December 4, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 865 New Daily Cases 1,258,000 % of Population Infectious 2.63% (1 in 38 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 63,000 to 252,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR December 4, 2023 New Weekly Cases 8,800,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 440,000 to 1,761,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF December 4, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 214,388,450 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,719,000 to 42,878,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR Janua...

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 15
PMC COVID Update, Dec 15, 2025 (U.S.)

In the latest CDC data, 15 states have moderate to very high transmission.
🔹1 in 63 estimated actively infectious nationally, rising fastest in the Midwest & Northeast
🔹Very High: Indiana
🔹High: Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut

🧵1/9 Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates of 1 in 63 actively infectious and >700,000 new daily infections, based on wastewater derived estimates using models noted in the Technical Appendix at the website listed in the image.
PMC estimates 1 in 26 people in Indiana are infectious and 1 in 39 in Connecticut.

MI, MS, and AR may have higher levels than shown due to poor reporting.

States AL to MS shown.

🧵2/9 Alabama Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) Arkansas Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) California Very Low 1 in 382 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low* 1 in 230 (0.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 39 (2.6%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 222 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 131 (0.8%) Florida Very Low 1 in 320 (0.3%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 275 (0.4%) Guam Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 670 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Illinois Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Indiana Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Iowa Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Kentucky Mode...
PMC estimates 1 in 39 are infectious in both Nebraska and Vermont (coincidence, not typo).

Very few NY sites are reporting to the CDC, so use the NYS website there instead.

States MO to WY shown.

🧵3/9 Missouri Low 1 in 80 (1.2%) Montana Very Low 1 in 135 (0.7%) Nebraska High 1 in 39 (2.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 225 (0.4%) New Hampshire Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 200 (0.5%) New Mexico Low 1 in 75 (1.3%) New York Moderate* 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 226 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 85 (1.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oregon Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 55 (1.8%) Rhode Island Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 215 (0.5%) South Dakota Low 1 in 86 (1.2%) Tennessee Moderate 1 in 60 (1.7%) ...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 8
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
1/9
🔥🔥🔥Very High: Arizona (Yuma)
🔥🔥High: Indiana and Vermont
🔥Moderate: Nebraska and Alabama

Data only go through late November, and levels often increase following Thanksgiving. Heat map and PMC estimates of transmission (1 in 102 actively infectious).
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
2/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Arizona is Very High, but sites were only online in the Yuma area. Indiana remains high.

MI and MS have considerable uncertainty.

DC is exceptionally low. Alabama Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very High* 1 in 18 (5.7%) Arkansas Very Low* 1 in 138 (0.7%) California Very Low 1 in 574 (0.2%) Colorado Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Connecticut Low 1 in 91 (1.1%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 307 (0.3%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 5,777 (0.0%) Florida Very Low 1 in 494 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 180 (0.6%) Guam Very Low 1 in 289 (0.3%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 704 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 121 (0.8%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) Indiana High 1 in 30 (3.3%) Iowa Low 1 in 83 (1.2%) Kansas Low 1 in 105 (1.0%) Kentucky Very L...
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
3/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Vermont remains High. Tennessee has fallen rapidly from a quick surge.

Data quality are low in NY. Missouri Very Low 1 in 176 (0.6%) Montana Very Low 1 in 136 (0.7%) Nebraska Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 372 (0.3%) New Hampshire Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 217 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) New York Very Low* 1 in 260 (0.4%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 233 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 101 (1.0%) Ohio Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 150 (0.7%) Pennsylvania Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 187 (0.5%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 144 (0.7%) South Dakota Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) Tennessee Very Low...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 23
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10

With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.

We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections. Heat map: Indiana and Arkansas with "moderate" transmission. All others, "low" or "very low" (CDC categories).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10

State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.

Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?

Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting). Alabama Very Low 1 in 153 (0.7%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 272 (0.4%) Arizona Low 1 in 63 (1.6%) Arkansas Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) California Very Low 1 in 365 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low 1 in 137 (0.7%) Connecticut Low 1 in 103 (1.0%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 262 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 418 (0.2%) Florida Very Low 1 in 408 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 292 (0.3%) Guam Very Low 1 in 887 (0.1%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Indiana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Iowa Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Kansas Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Ke...
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10

State-level estimates (continued).

Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission. Missouri Very Low 1 in 202 (0.5%) Montana Very Low* 1 in 114 (0.9%) Nebraska Low 1 in 95 (1.1%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 228 (0.4%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 192 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 151 (0.7%) New York Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Dakota Very Low* 1 in 116 (0.9%) Ohio Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 194 (0.5%) Pennsylvania Very Low 1 in 111 (0.9%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 167 (0.6%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) South Dakota Very Low 1 in 127 (0.8%) Tennes...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 8
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵

🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon. Year over year graph, emphasizing that levels commonly rise in mid November
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵

The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.

There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month. Close up of the most recent 3 months of data, including the forecast.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵

We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.

Do a DIY fit test if you've been putting it off. Graph of the 11 waves
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 3
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
1 of 9 🧵

The relative "lull" in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to go much lower.

✨1 in 209 people are estimated actively infectious, likely the lowest levels of 2025 nationwide.

Get boosted. Stock up on masks, tests, & filters. Year-over-year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
2 of 9 🧵

No data presently suggest the rise of a winter wave any earlier than "usual."

If following historical trends, transmission will pick up Nov 15-29. Last year's rise was atypically late. Forecasted transmission
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
3 of 9 🧵

Expect rising misinformation/disinformation as transmission heats up:
🔹Abuse of community notes, particularly surrounding wastewater methodology
🔹Paid bot army attacks, especially about boosters & masks
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 28
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.

We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.

1/9 🧵 year over year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.

Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.

2/9 🧵 Graph of recent transmission and current forecast
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.

Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.

3/9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic
Read 9 tweets

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