In today's #vatniksoup, I'll introduce an American political scientist, John Mearsheimer. He's best-known for his theory of offensive realism, for his pandering to authoritarian regimes, and for ignoring sovereignty of independent countries.
1/22
Mearsheimer is famous for his theory of offensive realism. The theory assumes that "great powers" such as the US, the CCP and (for some weird reason) Russia are being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system.
2/22
His lecture "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer" has been viewed over 29 million times on YouTube, and its often the cornerstone of any anti-US and anti-NATO argument in the context of Ukraine, including those originating from the Kremlin.
3/22
Let's do a short review about Mearsheimer's theory: he suggests that Russia had no other choice but to invade Ukraine as the West was provoking them with the constant eastward NATO expansion. This view is based on the ideas of "Realpolitik" and "great power politics".
4/22
"Realpolitik" is a system where politics is stripped off from any moral or ideological considerations and which focuses more on the practical side of things. "Great power politics" means that the big players like the US, and the CCP decide what happens to smaller...
5/22
...countries that are considered to be a part of their "spheres of influence". This strips these smaller countries from their agency and sovereignty, and it's up to the big players to decide what their faiths are.
6/22
According to Mearsheimer, the US should actually stop any aid to Ukraine and form an alliance with Putin, so that they together can beat another great power, the CCP. So, if it were up to John, the US really shouldn't interfere with Putin's genocidal war in Ukraine.
7/22
Few days after Russia launched their full-scale invasion in Ukraine, he stated that Putin "understands that he cannot conquer Ukraine and integrate it into a greater Russia or into a reincarnation of the former Soviet Union" and that "Putin is much too smart for that".
8/22
Of course we now know that this was exactly what Putin planned to do, and this plan had been started already back in early 2010s. Putin's plans were laid out clearly in his 2021 essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians".
9/22
In a later interview and after Putin had annexed four more Ukrainian Oblasts, Mearsheimer still agreed with his previous statement, saying that all Putin wants is these four Oblasts (although he had previously said he wants just two) as well as "regime change" in Kyiv.
10/22
He also absurdly claimed that Putin's "response to events there [in Ukraine] has been defensive, not offensive." Soon after this, Putin gave a speech in which he compared himself to conqueror Peter the Great and did not say one word about NATO or its expansion.
11/22
Of course, his claim that Russia is a "great nation" is also disputable. It's a declining power with huge demographic problem and the country basically acts only as a Mafia-run gas station that completely disregards democracy and human rights.
12/22
Mearsheimer's view of "realism" is also inherently unrealistic - it completely disregards internal politics and leaves no room for decision-makers. In his world, it doesn't matter if Russia is run by Stalin, Gorbachev or Putin, or Germany is run by Merkel or Hitler.
13/22
Incidentally, Mearsheimer's never passed any judgment on the most horrific war crimes, including the abduction of Ukrainian children, that Russia has conducted in their genocidal war. For some weird reason, he has done this in the case of Israel: in his 2007 book,...
14/22
..."The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy", Mearsheimer refers to a "moral dimension" in the US's enabling of Israeli "crimes perpetrated against the Palestinians." So, according to him, it's okay for Russia to be genocidal, but not for the US.
15/22
But most of all, Mearsheimer doesn't understand Russia. At its core, Russia is an imperialist, revisionist, expansionist and aggressive state. Waging small wars along its borders has been a tool of domestic control in "Russkiy Mir" since the time of the Tsars.
16/22
In addition, he has no clue about Ukraine - a sovereign country that had suffered greatly under the Soviet Union, its people only wanted to become closer to Western democracies and distance themselves from the corruption and oligarchy brought in by the Soviet leadership.
17/22
Like so many Eastern European country before them, Ukraine wanted protection against genocidal imperialistic power that is Russia. Neither EU or NATO forces anyone to join them: it's a voluntary process, whereas joining the Russian "sphere of influence" often isn't.
18/22
In Jun 2022, Mearsheimer gave a lecture in which he stated that "Putin does not have a history of lying to other leaders," neatly forgetting Putin's lies that Russia will not invade Ukraine, that Russia had no role in the downshooting of MH17, that the Kremlin had...
19/22
...nothing to do with the poisoning of Navalnyi, and that the Russian army does not strike at civilian facilities. There's of course hundreds, if not thousands, of more lies, these just being the most blatant ones.
20/22
Due to his stance on Ukraine, Mearsheimer has been invited to many influential gatherings. He's part of Moscow-based Valdai Club which incidentally also funded his work. He's also met with Hungary's Orbán, but really, REALLY doesn't want to talk about this meeting at all.
21/22
During a Valdai event, Mearsheimer stated that "I'm much more comfortable in Moscow than Washington!"
I wonder if it's all the money he's getting from there?
22/22
I have paused personal donations for now, please support @U24_gov_ua by donating to the #HopakChallenge and sending me the receipt:
In today’s Wumao Soup, I’ll introduce how and where the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) online propaganda and influence operations work. Due to China’s massive population and advances in AI, CCP-aligned online content has become increasingly visible.
1/20
Like Russia’s troll farms, China has its own troll army: the “50 Cent Party” or “Wumao” refers to state-linked online commentators who are reportedly paid ¥0.50 per post to steer discussions away from criticism and amplify CCP narratives on social media.
2/20
Back in 2017, a research paper estimated that the Wumao produced almost 500 million fabricated comments annually to distract readers and shift topics. In that sense, Wumao operates very similarly to the Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” model:
In today’s Vatnik Soup and the “Degenerate Russia” series, I’ll show you the brutal reality of Russian war crimes, in particular the horrific tortures and sexual abuses of children, women and men.
Buckle up, this one is not for the faint-hearted.
1/24
For over a decade now and as part of their “firehose of falsehood” propaganda strategy, Russia has been spreading false narratives targeted at right-wing/conservative audiences, portraying russia as a bastion of Christian, traditional,family values.
In the previous “degenerate Russia” series we discussed Russia’s insanely high divorce rates, rampant domestic violence, high murder rates, thriving neo-Nazi culture, corruption of the Orthodox Church, and their massive demographic problem:
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explore how Russia is working with Iran, and how the recent Israel–US strikes on Iran could affect the war in Ukraine. Iran has been one of Russia’s key allies in their genocidal war, but in reality the partnership is deeply one-sided.
1/21
Historically, Russia/USSR has been involved in numerous wars in the Middle East, invading Afghanistan for nearly a decade and desperately trying to keep Syria’s authoritarian leader, al-Assad, in power before his eventual downfall.
2/21
While initially supportive of Israel, the Soviet Union quickly pivoted to backing its enemies, fueling antisemitism, terrorism, and chaos in an already tense region. At times, this meant near-open war, like when Soviet Air Force MiG-21s were shot down by Israel over Egypt.
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll re-introduce a Latvian politician and former MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka. She’s best-known for her history in the Communist Party of Latvia, for her pro-Russian politics in the country, and her connections to Russian intelligence.
1/22
Based on Ždanoka’s speeches and social media posts, she has a deep hatred towards the people of Latvia. The reason for this can only be speculated, but part of it could be due to her paternal family being killed by the Latvian Auxiliary Police,…
2/22
…a paramilitary force supported by the Nazis, during the early 1940s. Ždanoka became politically active in the late 80s. She was one of the leaders of Interfront, a political party that supported Latvia remaining part of the USSR.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce the main themes of Russian disinformation on TikTok. Each day, there are thousands of new videos promoting pro-Kremlin narratives and propaganda.
It’s worth noting that Russians can only access European TikTok via VPN.
1/10
There is currently a massive TikTok campaign aimed at promoting a positive image of Russia. The videos typically feature relatively attractive young women and focus on themes of nationalism and cultural heritage.
2/10
Ironically, many of these videos from Moscow or St. Petersburg are deceptively edited to portray Ukraine in a false light — claiming there is no war and that international aid is being funneled to corrupt elites.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about Finland and how pro-Kremlin propagandists have become more active in the Finnish political space since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. For the first time since 2022, they’ve gained some political power in Finland.
1/16
Russia’s political strategy in countries with Russian-speaking minorities (such as Finland and the Baltics) is typically quite similar: it seeks to rally these minorities around issues like language and minority rights, and then frames the situation as oppression.
2/16
At the same time, Russian speakers are extremely wary and skeptical of local media, and instead tend to follow Russian domestic outlets like Russia-1 and NTV, thereby reinforcing an almost impenetrable information bubble.