Thread by @Mij_Europe

Guess who’s coming to dinner. President @EmmanuelMacron has invited the turbulent, pro-Russian Hungarian PM @PM_ViktorOrban to the @Elysee tomorrow evening to try to dissuade him from wrecking a crucial EU summit on Ukraine in Brussels next week 1/

Macron has a long record of trying – & mostly failing – to charm authoritarian & populist leaders from Putin & President Xi to @realDonaldTrump & @BorisJohnson. Despite opposed views on most European subjects, Macron has maintained a polite, working relationship with Orban 2/

He will try to warn him of the dangers – for Europe and for Hungary - of wrecking a summit which is supposed to make two important decisions in favour of Ukraine. His hopes are slim but at least Orban agreed to come to a “working dinner” at the Elysée Palace 3/

Orban sent a letter to Council President @CharlesMichel this week asking him to remove Ukr items from summit agenda - both €50bn aid to Ukraine till 2027 and a formal decision to open lengthy membership talks with Kyiv. Both require the unanimous approval of all 27 EU states 4/

Bxl is withholding €bn in payments due to Hungary until it fulfils 27 reforms related to judicial & press freedom & democratic rights. Macron hopes to persuade Orban his interests will be best served by seeking a deal on this issue not provoking head-on confrontation with EU 5/

French officials concede that Orban’s position has shifted in recent weeks from “transactional to outright provocative”.  He met with Putin in October and he has plastered Hungary with posters attacking the @EU_Commission President @vonderleyen 6/

What does Orban want? Although some v limited progress has been made on the EU’s problems with his authoritarian rule, the Hungarian Prime Minister has doubled down on his support for Putin and Russia. He says the EU should no longer back Ukraine’s war effort but “seek peace” 7/

Senior French officials are willing to gift Orban the “strategic debate” on Ukraine he is seeking. They argue it's anyway imp the EU “renews” its consensus & that its strategy should be continuously discussed, not least given battlefield developments & risk of Trump Presidency 8/

However, senior French officials believe, this debate should be held in a context where there is no doubt about European support for Ukraine: at the December European Council, the EU should first reconfirm this support for Ukraine, and only then, discuss its strategy 9/

Orban's other demands - accelerating accession path for W Balkans (esp Bos/Her), replacing VdL, securing a top job for next Hungarian Commissioner & having ALL EU €bn released - are simply undeliverable. That's why mood in Bxl regarding a deal for Kyiv in Dec are so gloomy 10/

Bxl fear Orban is blocking Ukr today in hope of doing a deal under 🇭🇺 presidency of EU in 2nd half of next yr: this'll allow Orban to look statesman-like at home & link deal for Ukr to his offensive interests. After EU elections, EU may be more willing to bend to his demands 11/

French officials fear Orban has been emboldened by stalemate in the war, doubts about continuing US aid for Ukraine & success of the pro-Putin Far Right in Dutch elections. They say Macron will try to steer him back to a more “transactional” approach. The lesser of two evils ENDS