On Newsnight I was asked what I thought the biggest mistake Johnson's government made during the acute phase of the pandemic.
I only got to give one answer, but if I'd had time I would have said: 1. Johnson missed 5 COBRA meetings. Didn’t chair his first one until early March.
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Missing those COBRA meetings meant he was not up-to-date with the latest information he required.
2. SAGE warned against physical contact in early March – next day Johnson was boasting about shaking hands with patients (including covid patients) in hospital.
A huge error.
3. The Johnson government locked down too late in March of 2020. Even a week early would have saved tens of thousands of lives. huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lockdown…
4. Discharging patients from hospital to care homes without negative covid tests resulting in huge numbers of deaths in care homes.
There was no protective ring.
5. Throughout Johnson claimed to be “following the science” and yet he overruled his advisers and sought separate advice of fringe scientists in September 2020 when SAGE was suggesting a circuit breaker.
6. Later in 2020 Johnson tried to “Save Christmas” in the face of mounting evidence that we should have been taking action and then he had to impose to impose lockdown anyway.
7. He didn't learn from experience.
How did daily deaths in January 2021 exceed those in April 2020?
We knew what needed to be done, we knew we had a vaccine coming, indeed we were delivering it already and still that wasn’t enough for the government to take the action.
8. In January 2021 our kids went back to school for one day.
Mixing with each other after the Christmas break and reseeding the infection.
It wasn’t like the government didn’t have two weeks of school holidays of make a plan.
9. The government said "keeping schools open" was their "top priority" and yet they didn't do anything to reduce transmission in schools to ensure they could stay open. No ventilation no filtration.
Why did pubs open before schools in summer 2020?
10. Hosting parties in number 10.
Breaking their own lockdown rules.
How did they expect others to comply when they couldn't even do it themselves?
There are many, many more.
No government can be expected to get everything right, but we had a right to expect them not to get all of these things wrong.
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The Government’s CSA during the acute phase of the pandemic, Sir Patrick Vallance, gave evidence at the #CovidInquiry last week
Most of the news that filtered out was focussed on political failures like Eat out to Help out - but should we have been focussing more on science...
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The headline-grabbing story was probably Vallance's testimony that SAGE was not consulted about the now infamous ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme.
2/25 bylinetimes.com/2023/11/23/eat…
Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, corroborated his testimony in his own appearance later in the week, revealing that “there was no consultation. Neither Patrick nor I can recall it and I think we would have done”.
3/25
I went outside to top up the chicken feed yesterday afternoon.
We’re usually pretty careful about putting the lid on the food bin, but I figured it had been left off by accident.
I was about to reach in and grab the scoop, but I looked in the bin first…
And this is what I saw.
I freaked out. At first glance it looked like the food had grown mouldy, having been exposed to the rain, but when I looked more carefully I could see it was moving almost imperceptibly.
A short thread on covid hospitalisations in the UK.
TL;DR Admissions continue to increases across England and but it’s a mixed picture in Scotland.
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1/11
Hospital admissions have now increased for the past three weeks -- increased by 12% week on week this week (was 25% increase last week).
The number of occupied beds have increased for the past two weeks – increased by 14% week on week this week (was 23% increase last week).
A short thread on covid hospitalisations in England.
TL;DR - Although hospital admissions have been very low over the summer, they have risen significantly in the last few weeks. 1/6
Hospital admissions in England increased substantially this week - up 30% week on week. 2/6
Similarly, occupied beds in England have risen by about 15%. 3/6
There was something strange about the recent Women's World Cup in Australia.
If you were paying close attention, you might have spotted it.
Many of the international squads had players who were born on the same day of the year – they shared birthdays.
What was going on?
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In maths there is a counterintuitive phenomenon known as "the birthday problem".
The problem is usually phrased along these lines: "How many people do you need to have at a gathering before the probability of at least two people sharing a birthday rises above 50%?"
Typically, when people are first posed this problem, they plump for a number like 180, which is roughly half the days in the year.
This is because we tend to put ourselves in the room and think about the probability of someone else matching our own birthday...
It finally happened.
After 3 and a half years of avoiding it I finally got covid for the first time...
... and it was awful.
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I haven't been very active on here for a while because I've been feeling so crappy.
Even relatively simple tasks (that I would previously have taken for granted) like reading have seemed like a lot of effort.
At its peak I was running a high fever, vomiting throughout the night and feeling delirious.
Fortunately that phase didn't last more than 24 hours, but it was pretty grim.