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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Dec 10 • 6 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A lot of different accounts have posted this video, but most have missed the logistical point.

This Russian mobik is eating snow because his logistics can't deliver potable water to the front lines.

There are good reasons for this.

RuAF Logistics🧵
1/
Ukrainian FPV drone reasons for this.

Even Russian ground resupply drones can't get through Ukrainian FPV drone interdiction.

There are larger operational implications in this.

2/
Implications that the Russians are telegraphing in desperately adding fortifications around Mariupol.

Fortifications are an economy of force effort in the defense.

So...Russian manpower shortage is one implications.

3/
 ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/379…
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The bigger implications are where the fortifications are being built.

Fortifications at Mariupol telegraph Russia is not only afraid it cannot maintain its forward lines in the Tokmak sector.

Russia is also fearful it cannot build them in the future at Mariupol.
4/
Avdiivk has shown that in the age of Ukrainian FPV drones, Russia has to build major fortifications far ahead of time...

...because it won't have the battlefield logistics to do so if it waits.

5/5 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 9
The Houthi have more than just maritime radio with which to contact merchant ships.

Yemeni cellphone coverage overlaps the straits, so any sailor with an active cellphone can be pinged, tracked or contacted.

There are drone guidance implications in this fact.

Drone Tech🧵
1/
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David Axe had a very interesting piece recently on the Russians using Ukraine's 4G network for navigation of it's Shahed-136 drones.

The Russians taped a cellphone with a Ukrainian SIM card into the navigation system.

2/
 forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
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Such a cellphone connection allows mid-course update to switch course or targets and a GPS jamming proof location updates using the local cellphone towers.

This makes obsolete most currently deployed drone electronic warfare equipment because it side-steps all currently...

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 29
Between satellite radar interference tracking (SRIT) and software predicting radar line-of-sight visibility, most radars are horribly vulnerable in the age of drones.

You have to tactically relocate radars several times a day because of SRIT.

However,
1/2
...after 2 weeks, the radar location operational patterns & terrain analysis related to what the radar is protecting lets drones have a huge advantage in killing radars without their own gun based point defenses.

And gun based air defense is so manpower expensive

2/
...only conscript militaries can realistically afford them.

And as the 80K6M kill shows, it wasn't a high enough priority even for a conscript army.

The idea a high pay professional Western military can afford crewing enough "cheap" anti-drone guns is...marginal.🙄

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 28
I caught a lot of h--l because I said the 2022 RuAF were less prepared for trench foot and frostbite than the Winter 1944 US Army because of corruption

I remember all the accounts last year saying RuAF was better in winter protecting their troops because...they were Russians?
1/
The hidden picture above of one such Russian casualty in 2023 reflects the poor footwear the Russian military procurement system provides to its troops & the lack of NCO's in it's units.

(H/T @secretsqrl123)
2/
Image
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Russian Mobiks are far worse at field discipline than the Russian contract troops of 2022 & the 2022 Russian troops sucked at executing good foot hygiene because of their looting based logistics.

Russian mobik "operational losses" going forward in 2023 are going to be huge.

3/
Read 23 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 26
What you are seeing here in these Black Sea storm are wind fields causing a mass casualty event with Russian VKS rotary wing aircraft in Crimea, S. Ukraine & S. Russia.⬇️

Any rotary wing craft w/o a hanger & unable to fly out before the storm will be heavily

Storm damage🧵
1/
...damaged.

The historical example here is the 1989 Mother's Day Microburst that destroyed the US Army helicopter fleet at Fort Hood.

A microburst disabled 2/3 of all the AH-64A Apaches in the world with that one weather event.
2/
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Plus one hundred other US Army helicopters were damaged as well.

The winds in this Black Sea storm are 26 meters/sec, or lightly under 65 miles an hour sustained winds.

3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 25
Just...no.

The issue with precision guided artillery projectiles like the laser guided Copperhead & current Excalibur is they cost 2 or 3 times what a non-tube artillery guided projectile cost.

Copperhead was $60K in late 1980's money while a Paveway II kit was $15K

Drone🧵
1/ Image
A GPS guided Excalibur is around $73K a round versus $21K for a JDAM kit plus the price of the bomb of between $4K & $16K in 2020 money.

Ukrainian long range FPV drones are running $1K to $5K depending on the sensor.

And these cost ratios are only the tip of the cost iceberg
2/ Image
The Big/Few/Expensive crowd on X are ignoring the issue of installed base costs.

There are very, very, few trained artillerymen world wide compared to the number of people skilled with drones.

Training skilled artillerymen costs militaries far more than drafting a
3/
Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 19
Oh boy, the manifold RuAF artillery supply chain logistical failures shown in the @secretsqrl123 post & the telegram video.😱

It is time for us all to visit "The Myth of the Russian Artillery Ammocopia: North Korean edition."

1/
 t.me/warhistoryalco…

Image
Let's start with the fact we are looking a North Korean D-20 152mm howitzer with dry rotted to nothing wheels, using North Korean 152mm ammo.

This underlines four things true in every war:
1. There are never enough artillery shells
2. There are never enough tires
3. There

2/ Image
(3. con't)...are never enough barrel liners.
4. There is never enough productive capability for new guns barrels.

And one thing that is true in this war that no one noticed for 80 years. The lack of mechanized logistics in the form of pallets & forklifts in the Russian Army.

3/
Read 20 tweets

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