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Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
@_CatintheHat
Dec 11, 2023 • 26 tweets • 13 min read • Read on X
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LONG COVID, a 🧵

Long Covid prevalence is no longer tracked in the UK so it’s useful to see data from other countries.

A new study from Canada was published this week which led with the shocking statistic that:

📍1 in 9 Canadian adults have experienced long-Covid symptoms…
Image
Of the 1 in 9 Canadian adults who have experienced Long Covid since the start of the pandemic:

📍80% experienced symptoms for at least 6 months or more;

📍58% are still continuing to experience long-term symptoms as of June 2023, ie. they have never recovered. Image
But perhaps the most interesting thing in this report is this chart which looks at the impact of cumulative infections.

The risk of developing Long Covid symptoms is:

📍15% after 1 infection

📍25% after 2 infections

📍38% after 3+ infections - that’s 1 in every 2.6 people! Image
Let’s just take a moment to appreciate that statistic.

📍38% of Canadian adults reporting 3 or more Covid infections had experienced Long Covid symptoms.

These figures make it quite clear that the more infections people have, the higher the risk is. Image
You might wonder what this looks like if you extrapolate it out further.

Well, @DavidSteadson has developed a model for just that.

This chart shows the cumulative probability of developing Long Covid at different estimates of risk for each additional new infection… Image
Plugging the figures for the risk of Long Covid from 1st, 2nd & 3rd infection from the Canadian survey into David’s model, it’s incredible how well the data fits the curve.

Worryingly, this model estimates that, after 10 infections, you have an ~80% chance of having Long Covid.
Image
To anyone who’s been paying attention to the scientific research, these numbers will come as no big surprise.

The CDC estimate that ~1 in 5 adults now have a health condition that may be related to their previous Covid infection.

That’s 20% of us! Image
Here in the UK, Long Covid stopped being officially tracked in March.

At that time, ONS estimated that nearly 2 MILLION people were suffering from Long Covid - that’s nearly 3% of the entire population!

Of these, around 700k developed Long Covid since the Omicron era began. Image
We also know that Covid can cause significant long-term sequelae which may not always be linked back to a previous infection.

For example, a recent study by the BHF found that people who caught Covid were 5x more likely to die from heart disease in the 18 months after infection. British Heart Foundation There have been more excess deaths involving cardiovascular conditions than any other disease groups in this analysis - a total of 96,540 since February 2020, the analysis of data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) finds. There are also concerns of a potential rise in heart problems linked to Covid-19. A study from January this year found that people with and without pre-existing heart conditions who caught Covid-19 before the vaccine roll-out were 40 per cent more likely to develop cardiovascular disease, and five times more likely to d...
And, as this BBC article acknowledges, it’s very likely that at least some of the deaths which were (or will be) hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection will *not* end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-64…
@bbc.co.uk Lasting effect of pandemic Some of the excess may be people whose deaths were hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection. A number of studies have found people are more likely to have heart problems and strokes in the weeks and months after catching Covid, and some of these may not end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered. As well as the impact on the heart of the virus itself, some of this may be contributed to by the fact many people didn't come in for screenings and non-urgent treatment during the peak of the pandemic, storing up trouble for the fu...
The CDC even added an update to their guidance for certifying ‘Deaths due to Covid’, making it clear that clinicians should bear in mind that Covid “can have lasting effects on nearly every organ of the body for weeks, months & potentially years after infection.” Image
But for many, death is not the biggest risk.

Long-term chronic illness is.

Since the start of the pandemic, we’ve seen a huge rise in the number of people dropping out of the workforce altogether due to long term sickness, reaching an all-time high of 2.6 million as of July. Image
According to a discussion paper recently published by the Institute for Public Health Research, long-term sickness absence is now a ‘serious fiscal threat’ in the U.K.

They have called for urgent action to tackle this ‘tide of sickness’ head-on.

ippr.org/files/2023-09/…
“People are spending more years in sickness than ever before. It's a structural force affecting rich democracies around the world, but one that is especially powerful in the UK. Not only is it constraining the quality of modern life, but sickness has also become a serious fiscal threat. The number of people out of the labour market due to sickness is now at an all-time high. There is no road to prosperity for this nation without tackling the tide of sickness head-on.” Reforming Health & Social Care Discussion Paper, September 2023, Institute for Public Policy Research
And, as the Canadian study at the top of this thread showed, it’s clear that the risk of developing Long Covid increases with each successive reinfection.

Just because you’ve had Covid before and were fine, it doesn’t mean you’ll be fine next time…

nature.com/articles/s4159…
Image
We also know that Long Covid can strike anyone, even those who only had mild symptoms during the ‘acute’ phase.

In fact, studies have shown that 90% of people suffering from Long Covid initially experienced only mild illness with COVID-19.

fortune.com/2023/01/05/ori…
Image
There are so many studies now… all coming to the same conclusion:

That Covid causes multi-organ damage which persists long after the acute phase.

Covid is not, and will never be, ‘just a cold’.

nature.com/articles/s4157…
Image
Covid’s effect on the brain is particularly concerning.

In the thread 🧵 below, I’ve compiled a number of scientific studies from around the world, all of which examine the long-term impact of Covid infection on the brain.

None of it is good.
I could keep posting studies like this all day long, but instead I’ll direct you to this link where @JessicaLexicus has collated a list of 171 sources explaining the long-term harm that Covid can cause to your vital organs

It’s well worth taking a look.

raindrop.io/JW_Lists/resea…
Despite all this evidence, most people are blissfully unaware of the risks of repeated Covid infections.

Meanwhile, scientists are sounding the alarm, warning that ‘the oncoming burden of Long Covid is so large as to be unfathomable’.

What will it take to get people to listen?
Image
Sadly, the media and government have done a truly appalling job of raising awareness of the risk of Long Covid.

It appears they are following the “don’t look up” strategy and we’re currently stuck in the “sit tight & assess” phase…
But there are a few exceptions… a few brave politicians who have been prepared to speak out about this.

Just last week, the German Health Minister made a very powerful speech discussing the long-term harms of Covid.

I’ve written up part of his speech from the video below 👇🏻
Prof. Karl Lauterbach, Health Minister, Germany 4 December 2023 “First of all, long Covid is a disease that stays with us and that we cannot yet cure. And we are seeing an increasing number of cases as the waves of infection continue to affect us. Secondly, Covid is not a cold - with a cold, you don't usually see any long-term effects. You don't see any changes in the blood vessels. You don't usually see an autoimmune disease developing. You also don't usually see neurological inflammation - these are all things that we see with long Covid. Therefore, one should not assume that Covid infe...
And then, of course, there’s the formidable @CassyOConnor_ (MP for Clark, Tasmania until her resignation in July 2023) who gave an absolute masterclass in holding politicians to account back in June, asking the critical questions to confront the elephant in the room…
Image
There are also a few brave journalists bold enough to speak the truth about Long Covid, journalists like @GeorgeMonbiot.

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Image
@GeorgeMonbiot When are people going to wake up & realise the enormous implications of getting repeatedly infected with Covid multiple times a year?

We could be doing so much more to reduce the spread of Covid in schools, hospitals, workplaces.

But first, we need the tide of opinion to turn.
I don’t know when the tipping point will come… but it had better come soon.

Already the economic impact of Long Covid in the UK alone is estimated to be £534 BILLION (see thread 🧵below ).

And it’s only going to keep getting worse unless something is done about it…
Apologies, minor typo in this tweet.

I should have written “Institute for Public 𝙋𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙮 Research”, not “Institute for Public 𝙃𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙩𝙝 Research”.

Oh, for an edit button!!

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More from @_CatintheHat

Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Dec 11
[10 Dec 2024] Opening Remarks from @DrTedros at WHO media briefing:

“We cannot talk about COVID in the past tense.

“It’s still with us, it still causes acute disease and Long COVID, and it still kills.

“The world might want to forget about COVID-19, but we cannot afford to.”
Link to the full transcript of the WHO Director-General's (@DrTedros) opening remarks at the media briefing on 10 December 2024 can be found here:

who.int/director-gener…
@DrTedros During this press briefing, Dr Tedros also announced that the WHO had released a series of UPDATED policy briefs outlining essential actions that policy-makers should implement to work towards comprehensive COVID-19 prevention & control.

who.int/emergencies/di…Image
Read 10 tweets
Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Dec 4
It was announced this week that SIR CHRIS WORMALD has been named as the new Cabinet Secretary & Head of the Civil Service, one of the most powerful jobs in government.

I thought I’d take a look back at what we learned about him from his recent Covid Inquiry appearances…

🧵
In her Closing Statement at the end of module 3, the Counsel for Covid Bereaved Families for Justice UK gave a scathing appraisal of Sir Chris Wormald’s evidence, describing it as:

“…an object lesson in obfuscation, a word salad – so many, many words, so very little substance”.
And she’s absolutely right. His testimony was decidedly unimpressive.

Most of his answers were evasive, repetitive & waffly, with very little substance.

For example, in this clip he is asked about the stop order on FFP3 masks in June 2020, but fails to give a straight answer.
Read 14 tweets
Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Nov 28
💚 The Green Party have published a new policy calling for urgent action to tackle the ongoing waves of Covid which are causing so much harm to the nation’s health & economy.

Huge thanks to everyone involved in making this happen.

@AdrianRamsay @carla_denyer @ZackPolanski
The Green Party are absolutely right.

We cannot continue to ignore Covid.

Covid has not gone away, nor has it settled into a seasonal pattern.

The endless waves continue to batter the nation throughout the year - and even in the dips, remains at a relatively high level. Image
Last Winter, the government briefly reinstated their ‘gold standard’ ONS Covid Infection Survey…

The data revealed that, at the peak of last Winter’s wave (Dec 2023), 1 in 24 people across England were infected with Covid.

Sadly, the survey has not been reinstated this winter. Image
Read 20 tweets
Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Nov 24
COVID INQUIRY: X Megathread 🧵

As module 3 of the @covidinquiryuk draws to a close, I’ve been looking back at what we’ve learned about how it all went so wrong with infection control guidance for hospitals.

This is a long thread, so please grab a cuppa & make yourself comfy… Image
One thing that really stands out from the Inquiry testimonies is just how many professional bodies repeatedly raised the alarm about the inadequate infection control guidance in hospitals…

…and how their concerns were disregarded at every stage, with profound consequences.
The lady taking the stand in the clip above is Rosemary Gallagher, IPC Lead at the Royal College of Nursing.

She explains how, in November 2020, the government had just released a video to the public highlighting how coronavirus lingers in the air…

gov.uk/government/new…Image
Read 84 tweets
Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Nov 22
COVID INQUIRY CONTRADICTIONS

🔎Did supply of PPE influence the IPC guidance?

Matt Hancock testified that the Covid infection control guidance *had* factored in the available supply of PPE, rather than being based purely on what was required to adequately protect NHS staff…

🧵
A similar account had previously been given by Laura Imrie, a member of the IPC Cell (the group responsible for writing the guidance).

She explained how lack of supply & the need for fit testing meant they weren’t in a position to be able to recommend wider use of FFP3 masks.
However, we heard a very different story from Dr Lisa Ritchie, who chaired the IPC Cell.

She wrote in her witness statement:

“The supply of PPE did *not* influence the IPC advice provided by the UK IPC Cell.”

When asked under oath about this, she confirmed:

“That is correct.”
Read 6 tweets
Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Nov 18
A Canadian teen is currently critically ill with H5N1 bird flu.

The really concerning thing about this case is that sequencing has revealed several NEW mutations which improve the virus's ability to bind to human receptors & increases its potential to spread between humans…

🧵
You can read a more technical summary of the specific mutations in the H5N1 sequence in the thread below from @HNimanFC.

Lots of interesting (and concerning) comments on the thread also. Image
And also in the thread below posted by @SCOTTeHENSLEY ⬇️

bsky.app/profile/scotte…

Screengrabs below for those who aren’t on the other place. x.com/jbloom_lab/sta…Image
Read 13 tweets

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