Thread by @MassDara

For those in town making choices on security assistance to Ukraine, if you need more reasons, then I have a warning to share with you about the Kremlin. I feel that I have a duty to warn. /1

The Kremlin is starting to gloat that it is beating us – the west. If they feel like they can win by outlasting the political will of the United States and Europe about Ukraine, they will become much worse in the years to come, cocky and partially reconstituted. /2

It is my job to look at different futures being rebuilt on the horizon. And I tell you that a bruised , vengeful, and overconfident Russia is one of them that I see on the path we are on, unless choices are made now. /3

Why? Every time the Russians think that they have “won” in a conflict under Putin -- Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Syria 2015 – they learn something about us – and they become overconfident in their abilities and in a few years they try bigger and bolder operations. /4

If the Kremlin concludes they can outlast Ukraine and Western support, they will tell themselves they overcame or defeated US and NATO intelligence, planning, weapons, tactics, will, and defense production. It would be an inaccurate but dangerous conclusion for them to arrive at.

If Russia were to conclude that their repetitive brute force methods and DIB can overcome western aid to Ukraine and outlast NATO political will and types of support- the outcome would be very dangerous, and it must not be allowed to happen. It could upend deterrence./6

Prior to 2022, the Russians believed they had several economic, political, and military disadvantages vis-à-vis NATO. If they snatch a type of victory in Ukraine by exhausting and outlasting Ukraine and the West, I believe they will downgrade their assessments about NATO power./7

The most important reason to continue to fund security assistance to Ukraine is for Ukraine. They want to live free from Kremlin subjugation and brutality. They fight hard, they do not ask anyone to fight for them. Look what they've done already to the Russian army./8

Have a look at these demands from the Russian MFA. They want the west to give up, and for Ukraine to give up and live in subjugation. It is not subtle. /9

https://x.com/martinkragh1/status/1733613937952690422?s=46

(The immediate response that came to mind was Gen. McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas letter: “N U T S!” ) /10
warontherocks.com/2022/12/nuts-m…

It is appropriate to talk about strategy for 2024 and matching ends, ways, and means - that is a good idea and it's time to do it. Open door offer to talk. But stopping aid now would mean giving up on Ukrainian soldiers in the field./11

It is in our interests to continue supporting Ukraine for many reasons. Inaction at a critical time could lead once again to a vicious, regenerating, and overconfident Kremlin in the years ahead and would be a political and military catastrophe for all. /end