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Sean T at RCP Profile picture
@SeanTrende
Dec 11 • 7 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
So I finally had the time to sit down and look at the questions below the headline in that WSJ poll and, um . . . wow.

s.wsj.net/public/resourc…
Trump has double digit leads on being able to best handle the economy, inflation, crime, securing the border, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli conflict. Biden has a double digit lead on abortion rights. Everything else is single digits which sounds good except . . . 1/
things like healthcare policy and social security are *supposed* to be double digit Democratic leads. But what really catches my eye are the personal attribute questions. 3/
Mentally up for the job of president? Trump + 16. Physical stamina to be president? Trump + 34. Cares about people like you? Biden +1 (traditional D strength). 4/
On core Democratic themes, like protecting Democracy, Biden leads by ONE. OK he's up 11 on "respects Democracy," but how the the fact Biden is only up 10 on "is honest" and only down 7 on "is corrupt" doesn't bode well for those themes. 5/
What *really* got me, though, was on page 20, when they asked if a president's policies helped or hurt. With Trump it was 49-37 helped. With Biden it is 23-53 HURT. 6/
I get it's early, and there will be trials and news cycles and whatnot. But good lord, Biden really is in a heap of trouble. Things really can change in the next 11 months, but that's the point: To win, things will have to change. 7/7

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More from @SeanTrende

Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Aug 9
Today is my son Judson's 16th Birthday. Sixteen years ago, I thought about how on today we'd drive together to the DMV, get his driver's license, and how proud I'd be of him for passing, and frankly myself for teaching him how to drive, the way my Dad taught me and his him. 1/
That's not how today is going. Judd was diagnosed with autism at age 2.5. At the time, his doctor said he just had a "touch" of autism. I viewed it as a roadbump. To the extent I'm smart, it isn't in a traditional way, it's in a "think way outside the box" way. 2/
(today I recognize that ability to make weird connections no one else does as my own form of autism-ish behavior, which I've been able to redirect in a positive way, but anyway). I knew I could fix this, the way I'd been able to fix almost every other problem I'd encountered. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Jun 10
I continue to hold to the position that we should not prosecute former presidents or candidates for the presidency except in extreme circumstances. I thought the NY indictment fell far short of that threshold. This one is different.
Basically, it is true the president shouldn't be above the law. If Trump had actually shot someone on Fifth Avenue, yes, he should have been prosecuted. If they had found hookers buried in the basement of Trump Tower -- which would not have surprised me -- indict.
At the same time, prosecutors exercise considerable discretion in which crimes to pursue and to not pursue. And if there are people who wouldn't be prosecuted for the crime the President/candidates should more-or-less automatically be in that bin.
Read 9 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Jun 9
So I think people are being a bit cavalier in the takes on the AL decision being Roberts and Kavanaugh afraid of running afoul of public opinion with the VRA. Justices really do cast sincere votes from time-to-time, and this case wasn't as cut-and-dried as some thought. 1/
In particular, the notion that stare decisis is much stronger in statutory cases than constitutional ones is real, and long-standing. Where there isn't a central constitutional argument, it isn't surprising that these justices might look askance at modifying Gingles. 2/
In particular, note that Justice Kavanaugh, in his concurring opinion, states "hey, if you make an argument that the effects test is flat-out constitutional, and frame it the same way that Shelby County was (things have changed in the South) I am all ears." 3/
Read 10 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
May 16
I went ahead and clicked on one of those "AI generated these iconic movie stars from descriptions" things from Facebook, and some of them aren't so bad. Lara Croft has an eye infection, but otherwise is believable. Others, however . . . Image
I might even identify "AI Wednesday" without being told who it is! But . . . Image
Elle Woods apparently can't afford a dentist (a common problem I find in AI generated people for some reason) Image
Read 10 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022
Now that the ballots are mostly counted, my take on what happened
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/…
I think it's important to realize that, in a system based on districts that elect one member, votes don't always translate directly to seats for a party. In fact, there are years where the relationship of votes and seats is outright inverted (1976, 1988, 1998, 2004).
Based on where it looks like Rs will land in the popular vote, you'd expect them to gain about 20-25 seats. I think this that this is what most analysts would have predicted if told the GOP would win the popular vote by 3-4 points. It just doesn't always work out that way.
Read 5 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022
On the uncontested House races, it is obviously proper to try to estimate vote totals for those seats. It's weird that people are suddenly super keyed in on this known-for-decades-but-always-ignore-issue, but whatevs. There are 10R uncontested and 2D. BUT . . . 1/
there are also 6 races in CA where Rs didn't make the runoff. This meant that you get vote totals out of here for 12 D candidates and no R candidates. Finally, of those 10R races, 2 of the states (FL and LA) count no votes at all, meaning it actually hurts R vote totals. 2/
I suspect that when you add this all together it probably makes some difference, especially given differential turnout in R/D districts, but in the context of a 100M vote election I suspect it is close to a wash this time. 3/3
Read 7 tweets

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