Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 11 10 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The West has a blind spot and needs to realize Russia's transformation. It's no longer just a nation with unlimited numbers of bodies for cannon fodder; it's now adept with advanced drones, from Shaheds to Lancets, and AI-driven tech for warfare 1/
I hope Zelensky during his visit to the US will be able to explain this to the Washington establishment. The world must see beyond just supporting Ukraine. Russia is honing high tech skills in the Ukraine conflict, outpacing NATO in both human and technological warfare. 2/
If Russia isn't quickly checked, it will grow stronger, gaining an unprecedented bargaining edge over NATO. If Russia's technological development persist, future talks won't just be about Ukraine's borders but about limiting NATO's presence in Eastern Europe. 3/
Russia now mass-produces Lancet attack drones, along with Orlans and Mavics, in gigafactories far from the frontline. Soon, Shaheds will join the lineup. These drones are resistant to electronic suppression. By contrast, Russia successfully surpasses their Western counterparts 4/
At this moment, Russia has no incentive to stop and negotiate. It will continue to produce drones and destroy western equipment in Ukraine, until there is not much left 5/
The issue is not any more about providing Ukraine with a good western weapons in large quantities, but about developing and strengthening Western capabilities in drone, robotic, and AI warfare. NATO is lagging behind and people are not seeing this. 6/
There is an arrogant assumption that Russia will never be a match to NATO so there is nothing to worry about. It is not true as the history has shown time and again. Russia now has the opportunity to innovate, together with China and Iran, and test on the battlefield in Ukraine7/
NATO doesn't exploit this opportunity. Russian is significantly improving its defense industrial base. NATO doesn't. NATO is hoping that its existing military advantage in technology and training will last. But hope is not a strategy. Instead, NATO must innovate and test 8/
NATO should also be serious about constraining the technological development of Russian defense sector. This means sabotaging and bombing factories, enforcing the sanctions, especially on technological goods, in earnest, and disrupting all technological supply chains 9/
But politicians in the West and perhaps some commanders don't appreciate the newly emerging technological capabilities of Russia. This may be a serious if not fatal mistake. The war in Ukraine should be understood in its broader significance and become a priority for NATO 10X

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 13
Is it easy to die in a war in Ukraine?

A couple of months ago I was in a frontline village. Getting there was simple, just a couple of check points, manned by 3-5 people. The last check point was just before the village - it said you are entering the frontline zone. 1/
There were fields around the village and Russians were several miles beyond those fields. It was not an active combat zone, but there was occasional fighting, shelling, sabotage groups.

When I was in the village I heard artillery shooting; I was told those were the Russians. 2/
What really hit me was the gradual shift from Kyiv to the frontline, just a few hours' drive. It all seemed so normal, no clear border or contact line. Ukrainian units scattered around, and further on, enemy units 3/
Read 11 tweets
Dec 13
At 3am tonight I woke up because of explosions outside my window. There were many and loud. The siren went off after the explosions and seemed unusually long. That scared me.

My wife got up and looked at the window. I was afraid for her. It was too late to go to shelter 1/
In the morning we learned that the explosions were across the city on the other side of the Dnipro river.

Russians attacked Kyiv with 10 missiles and 10 drones. The authorities say that all were intercepted but it really didn’t feel that way at night 2/


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53 people were wounded, almost 40 hospitalized. Most suffered broken glass cuts, some were burned, others in shock. Many children and elderly. Fortunately, no deaths are reported yet. 3/
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Read 11 tweets
Dec 12
The West allows Russia to get stronger because it doesn't enforce the sanctions.

Guess who's the top supplier of "high-priority battlefield items" to Russia? Intel.

This is shown in the forthcoming @KSE_Institute report and the world must know about this so it can act 1/
The report also shows that Intel is followed by Huawei, Analog Devices, AMD, Texas Instruments, and IBM 2/
KSE Institute report: Russian imports of microelectronics, wireless and satellite navigation systems and other critical parts subject to sanctions have recovered to near pre-war levels with a monthly run rate of $900 million in the first nine months of this year 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 12
Another clear indication of Russia's improving technological capabilities in warfare.

Today Ukraine is facing a significant, ongoing cyber attack. Our largest telecom provider has been down since this morning 1/ Image
Other services, including our university websites, are under continuous assault. This marks the first major successful attack since withstanding initial Russian offensives at the war's start 2/
There are other worrying signals. For the last several weeks, starting with the initial attack of 75 drones on Kyiv, Russia has been attacking major cities daily with drones and missiles, trying to exhaust the air defense and damage critical infrastructure 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 10
For work, I have driven from Kyiv to a city on the border with Russia

The road was ice covered with snow, heavy trucks in both directions

I hit something and my tire got flat. Where do you get it fixed? There is no BMW service in frontline cities and villages1/
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I arrived in the evening and I was too tired to take care of the car. There was still some pressure in the tire when I parked, but by the morning it was 100% flat

I had no spare because I drive without it, crazy, right? No! 2/
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The space in the trunk is used for other more valuable and potentially life saving items such as extra gas, shovels, extra gasoline tanks, tools, blankets

There is always a tire shop in a village nearby, no matter where you stop. These shops are pretty authentic, though 3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 6
The U.S. politics used to be the example for me. But nowadays … CNN reports that a briefing on Ukraine devolved into shouting

One of them was disrespectful and started screaming at one of the generals …why they didn’t go to the border - Schumer


1/edition.cnn.com/2023/12/05/pol…
"I did not let Chuck Schumer get away with lying that Republicans have ‘injected border security into a debate about the supplemental bill." - Sen. Tom Cotton 2/
"It was more dramatic because you’ve got an entire political party that appears ... willing to flush support for Ukraine and Israel down the drain because they’d rather have a wide-open border than support for Ukraine and Israel.” - Sen. Kevin Cramer 3/
Read 9 tweets

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