Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 12 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Russian Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, commander of RuAF's left bank Dnipro forces, has ordered the re-creation of the "White Guard."

Assault units made up of 100% officers.🤯

Red Army history in 2023 🧵
1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
Per Andrii Kovalov, Spokesman for the Gen Staff of the AFU:

"These are some kind of attack battalions, modelled on the White Guard units of the 1920s. The main criteria for officers in assault units are the inability to command subordinates, personal indiscipline...

2/
...and poor motivation."

So, let me give you the bizarre BLUF:

RuAF has a huge officer shortage in the junior and field ranks in an army that has never had an non-commissioned officer corps.

And it is now concentrating the few it has left into meat assault units?

3/
The _worst_ few 'failing' junior and field grade officers at commanding troops.

In so many words, these new White Guards of Russian Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky are a 'failed officer' penal unit.

4/
This seems to go hand in hand with the the Russian revival of SMERSH, the Red Army counter-intelligence.

Via Wikipedia:

"Joseph Stalin coined the name "СМЕРШ" (SMERSH) as a portmanteau of the Russian-language phrase Смерть шпиoнам (Smert’ shpiónam, "Death to spies")...

5/
...Originally focused on combating German spies infiltrating the Soviet military, the organization quickly expanded its mandate: to find and eliminate any subversive elements—hence Stalin's inclusive name for it.[6]"

6/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMERSH
Given the realities of Prigozhin's Wagner mutiny showing large numbers of the Russian Army as supporters of any mutiny that ends the war.

We can expect any Russian officer that isn't a ruthless yes man in feeding his men into the meat grinder will wind up in the meat grinder
7/ Image
Given what SMERSH did in WW2, you can also expect any RuAF officer who is any good and has a significant following of competent officers will also be made a "White Guard" if they are seen as a potential Prigozhin style mutiny threat.

8/
This survival threat to individual RuAF officers means at the very least we will be seeing higher RuAF casualties in December 2023 than the horror show that November 2023 was.

What RuAF officers are learning now is personal survival, not winning.
9/9 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 12
This Ukrainian FPV strike video underlines a lesson from WW2 that medium caliber autocannons have to be covered by high cyclic rate heavy machine guns to deal with close in air threats.

Which today spell FPV drones.

1/
The US Army in WW2 used first water cooled .50 caliber single mounts to cover it's 90mm heavy and 40mm autocannon.

Then switched to quad .50 caliber Maxon mounts which lasted into the Vietnam War.

2/

Ukrainians, before this latest Russo-Ukrainian War kicked off, had begun attaching DShKM and ZU-23-2 sections to S-300 and Buk M1 batteries and restarted ZU-23 23mm dual anti-aircraft cannon (2А13) production in 2020.


3/ mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 12
Isn't it interesting that the Houthi strike is exactly where their cellphone coverage of the Bab al-Mandab is most extensive?

Where they could ping and geo-locate merchant mariner's cellphones?

A lack of Western Cell Phone Security🧵
1/
Image
I mentioned this in a previous thread for a lot of reasons.

Reasons starting in 1999 when the Serbs put a observer with a cell phone outside Aviano Air Base, Italy during Operation Allied Force, leading to a loss of an F-117.

2/

Reasons relating to Hezbollah's 2006 doxing Israeli IDF forces in Northern Israel because the IDF didn't take cell phones away from deploying troops.

3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Leba…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 11
This was my Nov 2021 prediction on the 82nd Airborne's light squad vehicle truck in the world of drones.

1/5
This is what the previous post refers to as a "New light & agile 9-passenger infantry squad vehicle."

2/5
This is the 2023 drone reality that the 82nd Airborne's now very obsolete and overpriced infantry squad vehicles face.

A platform that is too light and underpowered to carry a useful jammer plus a squad at the same time.

And the UAZ had doors.🙄

3/5

Read 6 tweets
Dec 11
This is the sound of the way modern wars are fought. And this has been true since 2020 for everywhere...

...except inside the minds of the Big/Expensive/Few weapons lobbies in the West.

1/3
For which see this from the 2020 Azeri-Armenian War.

2/3
And more importantly hear this from 2020.

The December the 6th 1941 Battleship Admirals have their heirs in the 21st century.

This is four years and counting of Big/Expensive/Few reality denial. And it will continue until reality arrives _FOR THEM_
3/3

Read 4 tweets
Dec 11
This is another thread on RuAF losses in Nov 2023 covering ground force losses.

The clip below has the average daily losses and median losses for the month for soldiers lost, tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery, MLRS rocket launchers & trucks.

1/

Image
RuAF Cumulative Nov 2023 losses were as follows:

27950 - Troops KIA
340 - Tanks destroyed
536 - ACV " "
682 -Artillery " "
66 - MLRS " "
771 - Trucks " "

3/
Other X accounts have done the combat vehicle fleet percentages to death and far better than I can match.

I'm going to focus on the truck piece here.

4/

Read 10 tweets
Dec 10
It is time for another Russian casualty thread. This thread's objective are as follows:

1. Statistical analysis of Ukrainian reporting of Nov 2023 RuAF casualties.

2. A historical comparison of RuAF Nov 2023 casualties per 1000 to a pair of US Army campaigns in WW1 & WW2

1/ Image
I ran an SPC control chart for the Nov 2023 data set.

The Upper Control Limit is 1,501
The Mean is 932.
The Lower Control Limit is 362.

There are no 'out of control signals' in the chart.

2/ Image
Bottom line up front:

1. Ukraine used a consistent counting methodology that was unchanged in the November 2023 reporting period.

2. The Ukrainian methodology of counting of Russians casualties reflects Russian battlefield efforts as reported in _Russian_ Social Media.

3/
Read 20 tweets

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