tern Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023 185 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Ten things that governments have learnt ready for the next pandemic:
102
They won't even miss them
103
They certainly won't go out of their way to help them out
104
Invisible people are invisible, you don't need to worry about them
105
Tired people aren't very good at advocating for themselves and they have no power, so you can ignore them
106
You can always claim that you're waiting for more evidence, even if you already have more than enough evidence
107
You will never believe what people will put down to not getting sick for three months four years ago
108
People are desperate to believe that everything is normal
109
It's very easy to lie about airborne transmission
110
Invisible things confuse people
111
People, including, astonishingly, many immunologists, don't know how the immune system works
112
Most people don't know how pathogens work
113
Most people don't understand that all pathogens are microbes, but not all microbes are pathogens
114
People don't know the difference between a pathogen being respiratory and a pathogen being airborne
115
People don't know the difference between anything, they are just desperate to think everything is fine
116
The pandemic is over when you say it's over
117
If you're going to have parties that break the rules, hide them better, but actually, if you control the police, you won't get properly punished anyway, so just go for it
118
Compare your country to a country that is doing worse
119a
There is always a country doing worse than you.
If this month it's Spain, compare yourself to Spain.
If this month it's Venezuela, compare yourself to Venezuela.
119b
Note for other countries, from someone in the UK:
You're probably always safe comparing yourself to the UK.
We have been, objectively, absolutely consistently awful at handling every step of the current pandemic.
120
Use the pandemic to punish your political opponents
120a
If one of your political opponents does something you don't like, like for example they give financial support to people who need it, use the mitigations systems to punish them politically or practically or just any old way.
121
Accuse your political opponents of wanting to do either ridiculous things or sensible things
121a
If you accuse your opponent of wanting to do sensible things, it will make it sound like doing sensible things is bad
121b
If you accuse your opponent of wanting to do ridiculous things, it will make them sound ridiculous
121c
It's all about how you say it
121d
And it doesn't even matter if your opponent does or doesn't want to do those things, just making it an accusation destabilises them
122
No one knows what vulnerable means
123
No one knows who is vulnerable
122a, 123a
Use these to your advantage.
You can make everyone feel vulnerable when you need to, and you can make everyone feel safe when you need to.
122b, 123b
And we've already established that many people don't care about other people, and they want to think they're invulnerable, so most of your work here is already done for you
124
Make up a new security agency, like a health security agency.
It doesn't have to actually secure people's health, but it can make people think you care.
125
Use your made up health security agency to pump out whatever information you choose, good, bad, malicious, beneficial, just do what you want
126
Newspapers love press releases
126a
The journalists especially love them, it means they don't have to do any work.
They can dial in 600 words that have already been written for them.
No effort thinking, no effort investigating, they can just get straight back to Call of Duty or the pub.
127
Weaponise 'peer review'
127a
If someone has a theory, use 'peer review' to either destroy it or promote as you see fit.
128
Use the delay between research being conducted and research being released to say things like 'baffling', 'mysterious', 'unproven', and 'no link'.
129
Then when the research is published, ignore it, or point at something else, like Christmas trees.
130
Say that you can't make decisions because you need better data
131
Hide the data
132
Then when the data is found, misinterpret the data
133
Tell people that it's all about their personal choices
134
Tell people that you've given them all the data (even if you haven't) and that it's now up to them to choose what to do
135
People are like mushrooms, they flourish when you keep them in the dark and feed them bullshit
136
Don't worry, people won't notice that pressure on healthcare always peaks when the pandemic waves peak
137
Don't worry, people won't notice that ambulance demand is always highest when cases are highest
138
Don't worry, almost no one will connect the high levels of disability caused by the pandemic
139
People will absolutely not notice small fractions quadrupling
140a
For example if one year 1 in 1000 people develop a health condition, only 8 people will notice if the next year 4 in 1000 develop that condition
140b
And absolutely no one will notice if 100 conditions that previously affected 1 in 10,000 people now affect 10 in 10,000
140c
Especially not the doctors treating them
140d
In fact, some of the doctors will even get more excited to find that they have the opportunity to be perplexed by a rare condition in person.
It's a bit like they've just found a rare and exquisite type of butterfly that they never thought they'd see.
141
If someone makes up a phrase that normalises the pandemic, pick it up and run with it.
141a
Learn to live with Covid
We've all got to get it
Vax and relax
Mild
Herd immunity
Eat out to help out
Clap for healthcare heroes
Immunity debt
Immunity gap
Blah
141b
It doesn't need to mean anything.
In fact, it helps if it doesn't mean anything.
If you say these phrases often enough they will simply break the critical thinking element of the brain.
142
Lie whenever you want to
143
People may be less likely to do things that reduce risk if they think they can't eliminate the risk altogether, because people can't understand the difference between low and very low risk
144
People will be placated by being allowed to do things they used to do before the pandemic
145
You will be astonished what people are willing to ignore
146
You will be astonished what people will be willing to believe rather than be afraid
147
Always use the least scary statistics.
If cases are low, cite cases.
If deaths are low, cite deaths.
148
Mention deaths being low, but don't mention disabilities being low
149
Actually don't mention disabilities at all
150
Don't mention long term effects
151
Make sure you give people an excuse for thinking that their children, family, and elderly and vulnerable loved ones will be ok
152
Use phrases like 'ring of steel around care homes'
153
Say 'kids are more likely to be hit by a bus than catch this disease'
154
Just make up anything you want that comes into your head that people can use to justify feeding their families to the pandemic
155
Billionaires and foreign governments are your friends in helping to minimise the pandemic.
Many of them will invest huge amounts of money in downplaying the risk.
This will be to your short-term political advantage, so milk it for all it's worth.
156
Help people think the current pandemic is over by raising false alarms about other pathogens
157
Even if there are low numbers of those pathogens circulating
158
Serve the people, and, by people, I mean the rich
159
Prioritise the economy, and, by economy, we mean the finances of the wealthy
160
Especially make sure that commercial landlords aren't going to be endangered
160a
That would seriously screw things up
161
Say the opposite of what you're actually going to do
161a
For example, say that you're going to ramp up surveillance, then cut it back
161b
For example, introduce a winter survey and then hide the results until the spring
162
Throw tidbits occasionally.
People will be so grateful.
163
Tell the people in your country that your response is world beating, even if it's not
164
Use exactly the same response as the country next to you
165
Or pretend that you're doing what the country next to you are doing, but don't actually do it
166
Look, you're in charge, you can get away with pretty much anything here
167
When you're asked about any decisions later just say you can't reliever
168
Say whatever you like behind closed doors, but say reassuring things into the microphone
169
If you don't like what someone else is saying let proxies call them fearmongers or bedwetters or hypochondriacs or anxious
170
Say that it's all about mental health and then use mental health tropes to threaten or slur people
171
Don't worry about coherence, go for confidence
171a
It doesn't matter if different departments or different government officials are saying different things.
Just say them boldly.
Then swap round and say the opposite things if you want to, you'll be able to get away with it.
172
There will be always a colleague for you to stab in the back later
173
Tell people what they want to hear, not what is true
174
If a tool against the pathogen fails, such as an antiviral or antibacterial treatment, don't tell anyone
175
Use numbers when numbers sounds lowest, use percentages when percentages sounds lowest, use fractions when they sound lowest
176
Use words and phrases like 'only', 'as few as', 'at most' to downplay numbers
177
Pretend that the number of people who have tested positive is the number of people who are actually ill when that suits you
178
Pretend that the number of people who are actually infected is vastly more than the number of people who have tested positive when that suits you
179
Pretend that people who have died from the pathogen were going to die then anyway
180
Pretend that the people who have died from the pathogen actually died from other causes
181
Pretend that we're better off without the people who have died from the pathogen because they block beds and drain resources and weren't productive members of society
182
Pretend that the tools that are available to people in another country are freely available in your own
183
Pretend that the tools that are available to wealthy people are available to poor people
184
Pretend that you are properly tracking mutations to the pathogen
185
Pretend that you know what's happening, while simultaneously reassuring people that they don't need to know what's happening
186
Pretend that you care about people who are ill, while simultaneously pretending that no one is ill
187
If you get some vaccines, rely solely on vaccines.
187a
Rely on them solely to protect people, even if they don't protect everyone
187b
Or rely on them solely to explain why so many people are dying after they've been infected by the pathogens
188
Let people do their own public health
189
Let people assess their own risk
190
Let people decide for themselves if they're in danger
191
Let people work out what the best mitigation is
192
But cover your asses by hiding information about the dangers of the pathogen on your government websites
193
And cover your asses by publishing obscure detailed documents on how people should mitigate the pathogen's risks but hide them away in out of the way places on government websites
194
Do not let people who know and understand 192 and 193 talk to the media
195
'Balance' and 'centrism' are your friends
195a
If you want to dismiss a sensible idea, 'balance' it with a crazy idea
195b
Then claim a centre ground that is closer to the crazy idea than the sensible one
195c
Before you know it, the crazy idea will be mainstream, and the sensible idea will be completely dismissed
196
Use xenophobia in general, or sinophobia specifically to make things sound however you want them to sound.
197
Use phrases like 'draconian' to describe sensible things that you don't like
198
Use phrases like 'using our common sense' to describe things that are completely ridiculous or pointless
199
Move the goalposts
200
Be picky about which mitigations to promote
201
Tell everyone endlessly to do something that makes very little difference to the spread of the virus, like telling them to wash their hands repeatedly.
201a
It doesn't even need to be for a good reason, just do it for the laughs
201b
Although it's always a good idea to practise good hand hygiene
201c
But it's hilarious that you can get everyone to do this to stop an airborne virus
202
Encourage people to test, then encourage them not to test, then confuse people about when to test and how often
203
Don't give people free tests, they will just use them to check if they have a potentially deadly infection
204
Give instructions to people like healthcare workers and teachers that they have to come into work sick or they'll lose their jobs
205
Make parents think that schools are safe
205a
Even though they're not
206
Basically you can lie through your teeth about anything to do with schools and kids:
207
Lie to parents that kids don't catch it
208
Lie to parents that kids don't get sick
209
Lie to parents that kids don't die
210
Lie to parents that kids don't get disabled
211
Or let your useful proxies share these lies and then make sure they're not corrected
212
Lie to parents that they can't catch it from their kids
213
Never ever mention teachers catching it repeatedly when you're talking about kids being safe
214
Make people think that reinfections aren't a thing for as long as possible
215
Then lie about how reinfections are all mild
216
Make people think that infections after vaccination aren't a thing
217
Then when it's clear that infections after vaccination are a thing, lie about how infections after vaccination are all mild
218
Pretend that the virus only infects one part of the body, like the respiratory tract
219
Pretend that people who have developed long term serious health conditions after infection with the pathogen are anxious
220
Pretend that people who have developed long term serious health conditions after infection with the pathogen are lazy
221
Pretend that people who have developed long term serious health conditions after infection with the pathogen are crazy
222
Pretend that anyone who disagrees with you is crazy
223
Poison the chalice.
Make sure that the situation is so screwed up that any politician who takes over after you is tainted by what you've done
224
Double down.
If one infection isn't enough to get immunity, pretend that two are.
If two aren't, pretend that three are.

Never stop doubling down.
225
Keep pretending that herd immunity is in sight.
226
When herd immunity is ruled out, invent something like hybrid immunity
227
Move those goalposts *again*
228
Don't try to stop people sharing stupid theories, you may need them later
229
You can rely on most doctors to not know how infectious diseases work
230
You can especially rely on most infectious disease doctors to not know how infectious diseases work
231
Point to events like conferences and concerts as evidence that things are back to normal
231a
Even though people go to the events well, and are not sick until they're back home
232
If people get sick at long events like festivals, blame dust, heat, cold, wet, dry, pollen, fires.
233
Use phrases like 'dry tinder' to downplay deaths
234
Don't try to inform yourself.
Be proud of your scientific illiteracy.
Don't listen to the sensible advisors, just do whatever the hell you want.
235
If you don't understand something, revel in it.
236
Don't trust people who know more things than you
237
Exploit the fact that most scientists are specialists in very precise fields to ensure that no one has a good clear idea of the big picture
238
Denial is your friend
239
Get to the denial stage as quickly as possible
240
You *can* get away with murder
241
Allow the pandemic to make budget decisions for you.
242
Allow the pandemic to clear out a few people who are drawing pensions or about to
243
Sideline sensible people
244
Promise funding for treatments for people with long term repercussions and then don't follow through
245
Whenever it looks like cases are rising, float stories about possible future nasal vaccines
246
When cases are low, always declare covid is over
@PamelaBanting But, yes, please use it as you feel appropriate. ♥️
What's the novel?
247
Deny people the emerging scientific facts about how bad Covid infection and reinfection is for the entire body, by not launching any public health campaigns
248
Infantilise what information you do make available by removing data and just publishing "increasing" or "decreasing"
249
Pick and choose between sources of information
No one will notice
250
If you don't like what excess death statistics are saying, change the way you measure them.
251
Bend words to your own chosen meaning, like 'seasonal'
252
Allow hope to triumph over reality
253
Compare the number of cases at the moment with a year that had more cases at the same time of year
254
Don't compare the number of cases at the moment with a year that had fewer cases at the same time of year
255
Ignore the area under the graph

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More from @1goodtern

Feb 28
Right you lovely people.
It's time to talk about the Third Bump again.

Strap in, this isn't good news.
Just to give you a quick recap:
Before the pandemic started, annual rates of sickness, new onset disability, and death were pretty constant here.
Read 67 tweets
Feb 27
Right.
This is a long-brewed thread, and I've tried to start writing it before and then ground to a halt and then tried again and just given up because it gets messy and weird...

But I'd like to write a little about Rupert Murdoch, and what the heck is wrong with him.
Let's cut straight to the chase.
For decades and decades and decades, over 70 years, Murdoch has built his media empire.... by debasing people.
Read 65 tweets
Feb 27
Right.
I've been pondering on this for a few months, and I think the Norovirus/Rotavirus contrast may be a clue to what repeat *covid infections* are doing to people. Image
Image
And the fact that the UKHSA have come out and said that Noro may get **even worse** this year is a big red flag.

(Although there's a big possibility that they're just saying that so that when cases go down they can say they saved us from a second wave.)
These two graphs are quite complicated.
Here's weekly lab confirmed Rotavirus cases in mauve since July 24. (Ed: mauve?)
They match pretty consistently with the 5 year average for each of those weeks (blue line), which itself hasn't changed much in five years. Image
Read 49 tweets
Feb 27
Thank you, New York Times.

But I think 'alarmists' might be the wrong word then? "The covid alarmists were closer to the truth than anyone else"
I had forgotten this little story about Elon Musk:
"I was reminded of this all recently when reading about a similar bet that the writer and podcaster Sam Harris said he made with his former friend Elon Musk at the beginning of the pandemic...
Read 20 tweets
Feb 26
Very interesting new paper.
I hope this thread does it justice. 😬

"An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses: short- and long-range contributions" Image
A new study from Royal Society Interface...

It's an update on the advanced airborne transmission model that shifts a little how we assess infection risks in indoor spaces.
TLDR: Short range spread is ten times as intense as long range spread.
Read 42 tweets
Feb 26
If you're old and slow like me, then that Trump Gaza video goes too quick to absorb its full insanity.

So I took a few screenshots for you to digest at leisure.

This is something genuinely posted by *the President of The United States Of America*.Image
Let's work from the back end forward.
Trump just wants to make money and be successful and own shiny things made of gold.
This is his goal Image
Read 36 tweets

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