In today's #vatniksoup, I'll talk about how the Kremlin uses the country's large prison population to feed its war machine in Ukraine. Russia utilizes these penal military units often to exhaust Ukrainian forces of ammunition & for exposing the location of Ukrainian troops.
1/17
Penal military units are by no means a new thing. During the Han–Dayuan War, Emperor Wu of Han promised amnesty and rewards to prisoners who'd fight for him. This 60 000-strong army called the "bad boys" attacked the Greco-Bactrian kingdom of Dayuan in 102 BC.
2/17
Nazis also used these units extensively during World War 2. These "Strafbataillon" often consisted of criminals, political prisoners and deserters, and they were often ordered to undertake high risk missions on the front line.
3/17
The most famous penal military units was the 36th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS led by Oskar Dirlewanger, often described as the "most evil man" in the SS. The unit participated in the mass murder of civilians and other atrocities, and was known for its brutality.
4/17
This Nazi strategy was also utilized by the PMC Wagner founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his henchman Dmitry Utkin. Prigozhin had spent 9 years behind bars and understood the Russian prison culture well. Probably due to this, the Kremlin gave him free hands in recruiting...
5/17
...prisoners to fight in Ukraine. The deal went as follows: fight for 6 months with PMC Wagner & you'll be free. And many did,especially those who had long sentences or were placed in the most harsh & hostile prisons, often becoming victims of torture and/or sexual violence.
6/17
In early 2023, an official Russian TV channel showed an interview of Mikhail Popok, a Russian serial killer, rapist and a necrophile who wants to join the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
It's unknown if Popok ever joined the PMC and whether he's still alive.
7/17
Many of these convicts have been turned into heroes after their death. In Jan, 2023, Wagner organized a "hero's funeral" for a man who beat his mother to death in a drunken frenzy. They also put up a plaque for a convicted murderer, in a grade school in Saratov.
8/17
As Russia has an extremely high conviction rate, 99,6%, long prison terms and inhumane prison conditions, there's a very strong incentive to risk death in order to obtain freedom. In addition, PMC's like Wagner promise the recruits a good monthly salary even if the die.
9/17
According to Wagner, the total number of prisoners hired by them from the Russia's prison system is around 50 000, and according to same source 1/5 of them have died. This number is probably much higher, as the prisoners are often sent to high risk suicide missions.
10/17
In Jan 2023, a whopping 106 prisoners had been amnestied. Those who have been released, have often committed more serious crimes like murder and rape. Naturally, these criminals are at high risk of committing crimes and atrocities while fighting in Ukraine, too.
11/17
The few recruits that come back from Ukraine, quickly go back to life of crime, alcoholism and drug use. Vera Pekhteleva's murderer and former boyfriend, Vladislav Kanius, spent less then a year behind before he was recruited to fight in Ukraine.
12/17
Even before his death, Prigozhin was no longer allowed to recruit soldiers from prisons, as this "privilege" was moved on to the Ministry of Defense. This Russian penal military unit was called Storm-Z and its members were paid a lavish salary by Russian standards.
13/17
In Jun 2023, Ukrainska Pravda reported that the Kremlin is dismissing the Storm-Z unit due to their "extremely low combat capability". Allegedly, these troops were then transferred to replenish the Volunteer Corps.
14/17
As before, the main mission for these units is to function as meat walls that are sent to blow up mines, exhaust Ukrainian defenders of ammunition and exposing their location. Regular soldiers are also sent to Storm-Z as a punishment for drinking, attempted desertion, etc.
15/17
And the contracts the prisoners are offered have become even worse - the Ministry is offering them 18-month contracts, but in many cases the recruits haven't been given anything to sign. Yet, there are thousands of inmates around Russia ready to enlist to the meatgrinder.
16/17
Recently Russia has used a new strategy in order to avoid partial or full mobilization: according to ISW, Russian authorities are revoking the citizenship or visas of immigrants,then offering them a chance to either fight in Ukraine or be exiled back to their homeland.
17/17
For more information, read this fantastic NYT article by @KatjaBody et al.:
In today’s vatnik soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania cut the cord on Russian energy, further reducing their reliance on the Kremlin.
At the same time, the Baltics set an example for EU countries like Slovakia & Hungary whose leadership still worships Putin.
1/24
Moscow has long used its vast natural gas reserves as a geopolitical weapon, manipulating energy supplies to keep neighbors obedient. They’ve used the “energy weapon” several times, with the most blatant cases of Kremlin blackmail coming of course from Ukraine.
2/24
Let’s rewind back to the 1990s: The USSR dissolved, but Russia inherited the gas reserves, pipelines, and Gazprom — its political weapon. Meanwhile, the Baltic states were politically free but economically tied to Russia, heavily reliant on Russian gas.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an Estonian politician, Jana Toom (@JanaToomEE). She’s best-known for promoting pro-Kremlin viewpoints both in domestic Estonian politics and in the European Parliament.
1/22
Toom’s mother, Margarita Chernogorova, studied law in Leningrad & worked for the Communist Party. She was also a confidant to the most notorious leader of the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic, Karl Vaino. One of Chernogorova’s tasks was to suppress the Singing Revolution.
2/22
During the early 90s Toom lived with her husband in Snezhinsk, Russia and returned to Estonia in 1994. Soon after, she joined the editorial board of Molodyož Estonii, a paper known for being a mouthpiece for the Leninist Communist Youth League during the Soviet era.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss the Kremlin’s toolbox at sea. Recently, we have seen several sabotage operations allegedly conducted by Russia & its allies, especially in the Baltic Sea region. Since 2023, there have been several underwater cables cut by ships’ anchors.
1/18
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,the Baltic Sea has become a hotspot for NATO-Russia rivalry. This rivalry ramped up in Sep 2022,when the Nord Stream gas pipelines were sabotaged by an unknown perpetrator (some blame a “pro-Ukraine group”, others, the Russians).
2/18
These sabotage operations in the Baltic Sea now target critical infrastructure like Internet and energy cables, links that are vital for European communication and trade. Russia and its allies allegedly use these acts to test NATO’s resilience and response.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss the absolute state of X in January 2025. Since its acquisition by Elon Musk, this platform has rapidly transformed into his personal political tool and a breeding ground for hate speech and disinformation.
1/22
Not everyone is following this shitshow as closely as I am, so I thought it would be good to write a summary of all the changes that have happened on this forum and outside of it. These changes have drastically changed how the platform operates and who gets “a voice” here.
2/22
Elon’s team has been tweaking the algorithm many times after the takeover. One of these tweaks happened already around Nov 2022, when the platform heavily suppressed the visibility of pro-Ukraine accounts. This change was then noticed & reported by many pro-Ukraine accounts.
3/22
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Venezuelan bus driver, politician & dictator, Nicolás Maduro (@NicolasMaduro). He’s best-known for ruining Venezuela, turning it into a dictatorship, and for collaborating with other authoritarian regimes like Russia, Iran & Belarus.
1/22
His exact birthplace has been questioned, but most sources agree that Mr. Maduro was born in Caracas, Venezuela. Maduro was raised in a Catholic family, but at some point became a follower of Indian Hindu guru Sathya Sai Baba and even visited the guru in India back in 2005.
2/22
Nicolás’ introduction to leftist politics happened during the 80s, when he acted as an unofficial trade unionist and as bodyguard for José Vicente Rangel, who later worked as a foreign minister under Hugo Chávez. He also visited Havana, Cuba, where he “studied communism”,…