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Peace in Europe for the next decade, the rules
1) Putin wants to control Eastern and Central Europe
2) Countries in the region must be able to defend themselves / deter Russia with own military power
3) Or rely on credible defense & deterrence by another power / an alliance
1) Putin wants to control Eastern and Central Europe
2) Countries in the region must be able to defend themselves / deter Russia with own military power
3) Or rely on credible defense & deterrence by another power / an alliance
In other words, Putin can only be stopped by a balance of power that is unfavorable to him. He will not sign up to any agreement or accept any order that is not backed up by such a balance of power.
Instead of thinking about a "deal" with Russia or a "new security order", the West must focus on creating a balance of military power that is unfavorable to Russia.
That means: build op own defenses and weaken Russia's military power.
That means: build op own defenses and weaken Russia's military power.
With countries who reject the liberal order (agreements, win-win, rules-based order), liberal countries must build a relationship based on realism, ie balance of power.
The mistake the West made with Russia in the last decades was to assume that it can have a relationship with Russia based on liberal principles. Zeitenwende means that the relationship must switch to a balance of power.
The question is whether Berlin, Paris and others understand that now -- and finally start seriously arming Ukraine. Or whether they wait until the situation becomes far more dramatic and dangerous; with massive costs piling up.
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