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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Dec 15, 2023 • 16 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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Finland's epidemic 15 Dec 2023: both deaths and hospital admissions are set to reach new all-pandemic records. In Helsinki, the capital, virus levels in wastewater continue to increase, suggesting that there may be no lull between the EG.1 and JN.1 waves.
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Suomen epidemia 15.12.2023: sekä kuolemien määrä että sairaalahoitoon otettujen potilaiden määrä ovat nousemassa (tai jo nousseet) uuteen ennätykseen. Helsingin jätevesiluvut noussevat edelleen, mikä voi viitata siihen, ettei EG.1 -ja JN.1 -aaltojen väliin jää suvantoa.
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In some of the largest cities (Helsinki, Turku, Tampere) and Rovaniemi, the decline of the amount of virus found in wastewater has either stopped, or is increasing again. (The 7 Dec measurements may have suffered from an extended time in storage.)
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Suurimmissa kaupungeissa (Helsinki, Turku, Tampere) sekä Rovaniemellä viruksen määrän lasku on joko pysähtynyt tai kääntynyt nousuun. (7.12. mittaukset ovat saattaneet kärsiä poikkeuksellisen pitkästä varastoinnista.)
4/x
The combined share of EG.1 and BA.2.86 (which includes JN.1) continues to increase. JN.1 now captures almost all of the total increase, as other BA.2.86 variants appear to be giving way.
5/x


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Väistymässä olevan EG.1:n ja kasvussa olevan BA.2.86:n (joka sisältää JN.1:n) yhteinen prosenttiosuus sekvensoinneista on kasvussa. JN.1 vastaa melkein kaikesta kasvusta; muut BA.2.86 -perheen variantit pystyvät kasvamaan yhä vähemmän.
6/x


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Acute tonsillitis (J03), which is caused by e.g. strep A, has started to show extremely strong y/y patient growth among <15 year old children. Exponential growth started in early 2022 (coinciding with BA.1 and BA.2).
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Akuutin nielurisatulehduksen (J03), jota aiheuttaa esimerkiksi A-streptokokki, potilasmäärä on ruvennut kasvamaan erittäin voimakkaasti alle 15-vuotiaiden lasten keskuudessa. Eksponentiaalinen kasvu alkoi alkuvuodesta 2022 (samaan aikaan BA.1 ja BA.2 -varianttien kanssa).
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The number of <1 year patients with other congenital malformations of tongue, mouth and pharynx (Q38) has started to show very strong growth.
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Niiden alle 1-vuotiaiden potilaiden määrä, joilla on muun synnynnäisen kielen, suun tai nielun epämuodostuman (Q38) diagnoosi, on ruvennut kasvamaan erittäin nopeasti.
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In several European countries, wastewater indicators have continued to race right past the recent EG.1 peak to new all-time highs, with the EG.1 peak barely even showing on the charts. It looks that we may have a combined EG.1-JN.1 wave in our hands.
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Useissa Euroopan maissa jätevesi-indikaattorit ovat jatkaneet kasvuaan suoraan ohi äskettäisen EG.1-huipun uusiin ennätyskorkeuksiin; EG.1-huippu tuskin edes näkyy näissä kuvissa. Näyttää siltä, että meillä voi olla käsissämme yhdistetty EG.1-JN.1-aalto.
12/x
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This seems like triage to me: The CDC has warned of potential hospital space shortages during the upcoming JN.1 wave. I infer that the oldest age groups are least likely to receive hospital care.
In Finland, the THL has remained silent.
13/x

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Tämä vaikuttaa priorisoinnilta: CDC on varoittanut, että sairaalapaikkoja ei ehkä ole kaikille tulevan JN.1-aallon aikana. Päättelen, että vanhimmat ikäryhmät ovat ne, joilta todennäköisimmin kielletään sairaalahoito.
Suomessa THL on vaiennut asiasta.
14/x

web.archive.org/web/2023121608…
cbsnews.com/news/covid-var…Image
The warnings are out. We now know in advance that JN.1 could become the worst variant ever.
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Varoitukset ovat ulkona. Tällä kertaa meillä on ennakkotieto siitä, että JN.1 tullee olemaan koko pandemian ajan pahin variantti.
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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 14
This is an important moment.

After more than five years of silence, mainstream media has begun to acknowledge that C19 can harm T cells, and to discuss the consequences that follow. @fitterhappierAJ was one of the first, if not the first, to talk about this.
1/x
Dr. Leonardi has provided a significant amount of direction for me. In particular, he has been interviewed in some excellent articles that have withstood the test of time. Here is one of them.
2/x
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/…
We have seen it all.
- in 2020, they said that our health systems are so robust that this disease wouldn't come here
- then they wanted them infected. C19 was de facto allowed to spread in schools. Only a small fraction of <12 year olds received ...
3/x
koronatilastot.fi/fi/rokotukset/Image
Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Something is causing injuries among young children.
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Something changed in 2022. Before that, the numbers were generally falling. Wonder what it could be.
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After 2022, 1-6 year olds have overtaken a total of three other age groups (50-64, 15-24 and 65-74 year olds), and are now clearly above the total population average. All injuries (S00-S99).
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Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Developmental delays and disorders (F80-F89).
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Between 2020 and 2025e, the number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses grew at an average annual rate of 21.6% (10x in 11.8 years). The fastest patient growth was seen in pervasive developmental disorders, incl. autism and Asperger syndrome (F84).
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Among total population, number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses is up 2.6 times since 2020. All disorders are showing continued significant patient growth.
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Read 11 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Dec 23, 2025
Finland's epidemic 23 Dec 2025: amount of virus in wastewater appears to have risen above the first Omicron wave. Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron; repeated waves are showing no diminishing.
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Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher
- C19 has become endemic
- constant background transmission, even outside waves
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Repeated large waves in 2023–2024, not diminishing. Notable peaks:
- Apr 2023
- Nov 2023 (highest for the entire pandemic)
- Dec 2024

These peaks are:
- comparable to or higher than Omicron 2022
- evidence against a simple “each wave gets smaller” narrative
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Read 21 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 30, 2025
Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. For 1-6 year olds,
- the condition showing largest increase since 2022 is Down's syndrome (Q90)
- the condition showing fastest growth since 2022 is Congenital malformations of great arteries (Q25)
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1-6 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99).
- Down's syndrome (Q90): average patient growth (2022-2025e) 14% per year = 10x in 18 years)
- fastest growing condition: other sex chromosome abnormalities, male phenotype (Q98), up 150% in 2025e
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<1 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99):
- Down's syndrome (Q90) is the most frequent diagnosis
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Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 11, 2025
Intellectual disabilities (F70-F79): <1 year olds are leading in terms of y/y growth. Ten percent of <1 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis in 14 year's time (2039), if current growth rates continue.
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The rise in intellectual disability among <1 year olds also shows in number of diagnoses: up roughly 11 times in 4 years. Also note the rise among 1-6 year olds.
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7-14 and 15-24 year olds are showing the highest levels of intellectual disability. If current growth rates continue, 5 percent of 7-14 and 15-24 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis by 2048 (24 years from now).
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Read 6 tweets

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