Finland's epidemic 15 Dec 2023: both deaths and hospital admissions are set to reach new all-pandemic records. In Helsinki, the capital, virus levels in wastewater continue to increase, suggesting that there may be no lull between the EG.1 and JN.1 waves. 1/x
Suomen epidemia 15.12.2023: sekä kuolemien määrä että sairaalahoitoon otettujen potilaiden määrä ovat nousemassa (tai jo nousseet) uuteen ennätykseen. Helsingin jätevesiluvut noussevat edelleen, mikä voi viitata siihen, ettei EG.1 -ja JN.1 -aaltojen väliin jää suvantoa. 2/x
In some of the largest cities (Helsinki, Turku, Tampere) and Rovaniemi, the decline of the amount of virus found in wastewater has either stopped, or is increasing again. (The 7 Dec measurements may have suffered from an extended time in storage.) 3/x
Suurimmissa kaupungeissa (Helsinki, Turku, Tampere) sekä Rovaniemellä viruksen määrän lasku on joko pysähtynyt tai kääntynyt nousuun. (7.12. mittaukset ovat saattaneet kärsiä poikkeuksellisen pitkästä varastoinnista.) 4/x
The combined share of EG.1 and BA.2.86 (which includes JN.1) continues to increase. JN.1 now captures almost all of the total increase, as other BA.2.86 variants appear to be giving way. 5/x
Väistymässä olevan EG.1:n ja kasvussa olevan BA.2.86:n (joka sisältää JN.1:n) yhteinen prosenttiosuus sekvensoinneista on kasvussa. JN.1 vastaa melkein kaikesta kasvusta; muut BA.2.86 -perheen variantit pystyvät kasvamaan yhä vähemmän. 6/x
Acute tonsillitis (J03), which is caused by e.g. strep A, has started to show extremely strong y/y patient growth among <15 year old children. Exponential growth started in early 2022 (coinciding with BA.1 and BA.2). 7/x
Akuutin nielurisatulehduksen (J03), jota aiheuttaa esimerkiksi A-streptokokki, potilasmäärä on ruvennut kasvamaan erittäin voimakkaasti alle 15-vuotiaiden lasten keskuudessa. Eksponentiaalinen kasvu alkoi alkuvuodesta 2022 (samaan aikaan BA.1 ja BA.2 -varianttien kanssa). 8/x
The number of <1 year patients with other congenital malformations of tongue, mouth and pharynx (Q38) has started to show very strong growth. 9/x
Niiden alle 1-vuotiaiden potilaiden määrä, joilla on muun synnynnäisen kielen, suun tai nielun epämuodostuman (Q38) diagnoosi, on ruvennut kasvamaan erittäin nopeasti. 10/x
In several European countries, wastewater indicators have continued to race right past the recent EG.1 peak to new all-time highs, with the EG.1 peak barely even showing on the charts. It looks that we may have a combined EG.1-JN.1 wave in our hands. 11/x
Useissa Euroopan maissa jätevesi-indikaattorit ovat jatkaneet kasvuaan suoraan ohi äskettäisen EG.1-huipun uusiin ennätyskorkeuksiin; EG.1-huippu tuskin edes näkyy näissä kuvissa. Näyttää siltä, että meillä voi olla käsissämme yhdistetty EG.1-JN.1-aalto. 12/x
This seems like triage to me: The CDC has warned of potential hospital space shortages during the upcoming JN.1 wave. I infer that the oldest age groups are least likely to receive hospital care.
In Finland, the THL has remained silent. 13/x
Tämä vaikuttaa priorisoinnilta: CDC on varoittanut, että sairaalapaikkoja ei ehkä ole kaikille tulevan JN.1-aallon aikana. Päättelen, että vanhimmat ikäryhmät ovat ne, joilta todennäköisimmin kielletään sairaalahoito.
Suomessa THL on vaiennut asiasta. 14/x
25-29 year olds: cancer and neoplasm related deaths in Sweden (C00-D48). 1/x
During 2020-2024, among 25-29 year olds, the share of cancers showing growth in 2023-2024 increased from a historical baseline of 22% of all cancers (1997-2019 average) to 61% in 2024. 2/x
This is the same chart in terms of absolute numbers. Among 25-29 year olds, the total number of cancer related deaths bottomed out in 2021.
For the causes showing growth (in red),
- 2020-2024 average is 2.2 times as high as the 1997-2019 baseline
- 2023-2024 average is 3.1 times as high as the 1997-2019 baseline
3/x
Cancer and neoplasm related deaths in Sweden (C00-D48). 1/x
Among 30-34 year olds, cancer and neoplasm related causes of death have been growing at an average rate of 32.5% per year since 2021 (equivalent to a 10-fold increase in 8.2 years if current growth continues). 2/x
Cancer related deaths accounted for 16.8% of all deaths among 30-34 year olds in 2024. If they continue to grow at the rate of 32.5%, they alone could be sufficient to double total mortality in this age group within 4 years, and increase it 10-fold within a further 8 years. 3/x
Finland's epidemic 22 Feb 2026: the amount of virus detected in wastewater is now 60% higher than during the first Omicron wave in 2022. The post-Omicron baseline appears permanently higher compared with the pre-Omicron period; repeated waves show no sign of diminishing. 1/x
Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron:
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher than before Omicron: a sign of constant background transmission 2/x
The first Omicron wave in January 2022 was the first major structural break.
- this wave was an order of magnitude jump compared to the pre-Omicron period (2020-2021)
- the first Omicron wave fundamentally shifted the baseline 10 to 100 times upward 3/x
Between 1997 and 2019, mortality across age groups declined by up to 48 percent. Large amounts of additional life were delivered. Courtesy of the Swedish health system. 1/x
Between 2019 and 2024, the Swedish health system took a step back. It would appear that school aged children were sacrificed for the greater good. 2/x
As a result, the post-2019 years have seen increasing levels for disease-related mortality for the younger age groups. For 5-9 and 10-14 year olds, mortality is now 66% and 38% higher than in 2019, respectively. 2024 was the worst for both of these age groups. 3/x