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Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
@mercoglianos
Dec 15 • 8 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/Shipping Giants Pause Red Sea Voyages, Dealing Blow to Global Trade

Let's take a moment and break this down.

The #Houthi have stepped up attacks against ships that are not connected to #Israel.

gcaptain.com/shipping-giant…
2/The decision by @Maersk @MSCCargo @HapagLloydAG , and potentially others, will lead to longer voyages.

This equates to delays in deliveries and higher freight costs associated with longer voyages and fuel consumption. This is happening concurrently with other issues. Image
3/The low water in the Panama Canal is reducing the number of transits in half.

Two of the major three container alliances had announced a diversion from Asia to the US East Coast by shifting their ships from Panama to the Suez.


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4/The container sector was already facing a "Brutal" 2024 according to @joinxeneta. With low freight rates & excess capacity, the container companies were coming off record profits to low (see @mccown_john).
A shutdown/diversion from Suez is a windfall.

gcaptain.com/container-ship…
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5/This also places @Maersk @HapagLloydAG and @MSCCargo in a position they found themselves in early 2022 when they decided to boycott Russia in exercising a corporate foreign policy.

telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/…
6/By avoiding the Suez, this will force nations to react, not the least of which, Egypt which will be losing tolls from the canal.

iss-shipping.com/suez-canal-aut…
7/All of this goes to the point of showing how global shipping is impacting not just the economics of the world, but also the politics.

What political and military decisions are made with regards to the free transit of ships through the region will have lasting impact. Image
This is something that the MSM should be discussing:

@cnnbrk @FoxNews @CNBC @foxnewsalert @MSNBC @PBS @bbcworldservice @BBCBreaking @ABC @CBSNews @nytimes @WSJ @washingtonpost @politico @business @joerogan @SkyNews @smerconish @juliemason @OKnox @hughhewitt @siriusxmpotus

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More from @mercoglianos

Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Nov 14
1/Dr. Holmes' piece highlights a perspective that needs to be corrected.

"The U.S. Sea Services need more logistics ships. A lot more. The services allowed the combat-logistics fleet to wilt during the post-Cold War interregnum."

What we need is a larger US merchant marine.
2/The US Navy retained a large combat-logistics fleet, their oilers, fast combat support ships and supply/ammunition ships are the largest and most sophisticated in the world.

What is lacking is the vessels that would shuttle the supplies out to them and forward bases. Image
3/What we have done is allow the US merchant marine to atrophy to 21st in the world while China's fleet stands in 3rd place behind the open registries of Liberia and Panama.

Dr Holmes notes the availability of 276 auxiliary ships; however many of these would not be available.
Image
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Read 8 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Nov 7
A write up about the protests in @PortofOakland about the @US_TRANSCOM @DOTMARAD @MSCSealift MV #CapeOrlando.

Let's see how many things are wrong in this article by @hyphy_republic.
1/Okay, there is no evidence beyond heresay that the ship is going to Israel. More than likely it is involved in the routine transfer or swap put of military units and equipment in the Pacific or Middle East. Image
2/Not sure what is quasi-civilian. The ship is government owned, by the Dept of Transportation, but the crew is all civilian; not quasi, but union members.

There are four RRF ships in Oakland with more across the bay in San Francisco.

What was the reliable source? Image
Read 14 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Oct 21
1/USS Carney Shot Down More Missiles, Drones Over Longer Period

Carney's engagement in the #RedSea highlights some issues for the @DeptofDefense & @USNavy in modern naval warfare.

thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…
2/It is reported that Carney engaged 4 cruise missiles and up to 19 UAV drones with their SM-2 standard missiles.

Hitting Israel from Yemen is over a thousand miles and these fit the parameters of Iranian cruise missiles.

iiss.org/online-analysi…
3/UAV drones traveling that far is also a major concern, but there have been examples of Iranian drones being used in Ukraine by Russia.

It is reported that Carney's action took place over several hours.

iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/mar/…
Read 18 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Oct 20
Some key points on USS Carney engagement in the Red Sea.

1️⃣ Carney is a Ballistic Missile Defense fitted Burke class destroyer that has been assigned to Rota since 2015 (she was not part of the Ford Strike Group that deployed from US East Coast).
2️⃣ She had only transmitted the Suez Canal on Oct 18.

It is 1213 nautical miles from Suez to the Bab-el-Mandeb. Even at 30 knots (which is unlikely as there is no oiler in the Red Sea) this is a 40 hour transit after clearing the Suez. Image
3️⃣ It appears that Carney took up position in the northern or central Red Sea.

Houthi missile and drone attacks would either had to been over the Red Sea or over Saudi territory.

While Carney conducted the engagement from Sea, the targets may have been over land. Image
Read 5 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Oct 17
1/Let's walk through Red Hill defueling and the new Tanker Security Program.

According to a @usni story, Red Hill began defuelilng on Oct 16, 2023 to clear 104M gallons and transfer them to tankers. There will then be 60-70M that will remain and need to be pumped out.
2/Red Hill was designed to store 250M gallons; so approx 75M gallons have been consumed over the last year and not replaced.

The loss of Red Hill will leave a large void in the @DLAMIL fuel storage in the @INDOPACOM AOR. Image
3/With @DLAMIL facilities in the US, in Japan, South Korea, Guam and Bahrain; along with scattered commercial storage facilities across the Pacific, the US will not have a large amount of fuel forward deployed on US territory. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Sep 27
Some quick takeaways from the new @UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2023 report.

1. Seaborne trade declined by 0.4 per cent in 2022, growth resumes in 2023

unctad.org/publication/re…
2. Expanding distances for oil and grain cargo

3. Container shipping connectivity remains below pre-COVID-19 levels in small island developing States Image
4. A slow growing fleet, ageing ships and the challenges ahead

5. Container freight rates returning to pre-pandemic levels Image
Read 7 tweets

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