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Dec 15, 2023 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Frontelligence Insight team, upon a thorough examination of multiple satellite shots spanning from October 10th to November 28th, has identified over 211 destroyed or damaged and abandoned Russian vehicles in the vicinity of Avdiivka. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ Our initial report included over 109 vehicles between October 10th and October 20th, excluding the area west of Vodyane. This time, we expanded our coverage to include the entire area until November 28th, 2023, bringing the total number to 211. Image
3/ Losses identified in Part 1 or occurring before October 10th—the start of the assault—are marked with white squares. Ukrainian losses are excluded from this report, focusing on Russian losses, though we couldn't identify more than 7. Image
4/ This number surpasses Russian losses in any other single battle, including Vuhledar, marking it the most devastating battle for Russian forces in terms of vehicle losses. The primary categories of losses include tanks, BMPs, BTRs, MTLB, some IMVs, a couple of trucks, and MLRS Image
5/ Notably, not all confirmed FPV drone hits led to observable destroyed vehicles in satellite imagery. Some vehicles may remain operational or get evacuated for repairs. An FPV drone hit doesn't always indicate a vehicle loss. Image
6/ Around 50% of these losses occurred in the first three weeks of the offensive, with occasional peaks in the October-December period. This aligns with our earlier reports about a shift towards infantry assaults instead of massive mechanized troops. Image
7/ We excluded several locations recorded on videos where Russian vehicles were destroyed due to the extensive explosions. However, on the imagery, there was nothing left to identify as a vehicle, other than a scorch mark and crater. Image
8/ To enhance accuracy, we compared imagery from September and October to exclude vehicles destroyed before October 10th and those included in the previous report. Errors and misidentifications might still exist, but they are estimated to be no more than 12.75% Image
9/ The total number of losses would amount to approximately slightly over the complete annihilation of 5 battalions. This represents significant losses in both equipment and personnel, considering the achieved results. Image
10/ The complete list of losses with images can be found on the website linked in my bio. (I am not including the link in the thread as it significantly degrades the visibility of this thread and doesn't show up in the timeline.) Image
11/ Our team is working on multiple projects, including tracking the expansion of Russian military infrastructure. Considering that we do not have stable financing, please consider the BuyMeaCoffee option linked in my bio to support us, given the very limited resources we have. Image
12/ Our teams utilized geolocated data to visually map Russian vehicle losses between October 10th and November 28th, aiding in visualizing the battle for Avdiivka and identifying locations with the highest concentration and number of vehicle losses. Image
13/ These materials were prepared by the Frontelligence Insight team, with assistance from volunteers and with OSINT geolocated materials: @naalsio26 , @Danspiun , @AndrewPerpetua , and @GeoConfirmed

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Oct 22
Ukraine is likely approaching the final stages of the active phase of the war. I suggest taking a look at my assessment, which draws on General Budanov’s overlooked speech at the Yalta Conference, along with insights from other reports and assessments

🧵Thread: Image
2/ Any war of attrition tests endurance, economics, diplomacy, and the ability to replace losses. As the war continues, these issues intensify, pushing one side closer to a tipping point. Production and the capacity to replace losses are tangible factors that can be projected
3/ One notable point from Budanov’s speech was Russia’s plan to produce 149 T-90M tanks in 2024.
Russia has been heavily relying on refurbishing older tank models from its Soviet-era stockpiles. Most of its current tank fleet on the battlefield is no longer in production.
Read 25 tweets
Sep 25
After reviewing an internal correspondence leak from a Russian military electronics plant "Mikropribor", Frontelligence Insight, with data provided by @CyberResUa discovered that the production of the Su-57 is in jeopardy without access to crucial Western components. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ According to correspondence between the head of the procurement bureau at the "Red Banner" plant (a part of Almaz-Antei) and "Mikropribor" in August 2022, Mikropribor was given a list of required equipment for the MPPU-50. Keep this device name in mind- it's importantImage
3/ The provided list consists of foreign-made components, including the WA36 Fixed Attenuator, EA-PS 3150, and PLR7 60-12 power supplies, all sourced by various Russian companies. The goal of procurement is to ensure the assembly of automated workstations for testing the MPPU-50Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 21
An alleged drone strike has targeted the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, according to early reports. The depot, closely monitored by Frontelligence Insight for its role in artillery ammo logistics, gained international attention in 2023 following the arrival of North Korean ammo.
🧵Thread Image
2/ Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev reported that two UAVs targeting Tikhoretsk were "suppressed", with debris causing a fire and detonation of flammable materials. Videos on social media suggest a large denotation

Screenshot from the video posted by @war_monitor_ua Image
3/ The Tikhoretsk ammo depot was expanded in 2023 to store North Korean munitions. Most ammo arrived by train in containers, unloaded and stored in revetments - essentially pits in the ground under open sky. Civilian trucks then transported the munitions to frontlines Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 27
As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine's Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting. There is uncertainty about why Pokrovsk is more significant than other recently lost towns. This thread aims to clarify this and other aspects: Image
2/ Before falling to Russian forces in February 2024, Avdiivka was vital for Ukrainian troops, serving as a fortress, protecting key logistical routes in Donetsk Oblast, and a potential foothold for deoccupying Donetsk. Since 2022, Russia has invested heavily in capturing it Image
3/ Pokrovsk, with a pre-war population of ~60,000, lies west of Avdiivka at a key railroad crossroads. It has become a key distribution hub, supporting Ukrainian forces along a broad frontline from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond. The railways are highlighted in red Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 25
Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises

🧵It's still early to draw any definitive conclusions, but a few points should be considered: Image
2/ In February 2024, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting released an analysis of the Belarusian military's readiness, concluding that its combat units are typically manned at only 30-40% capacity, relying heavily on mobilization, with the rest filled during mobilization Image
3/ This suggests that if Belarus was seriously preparing for a major invasion, significant mobilization efforts would be seen. For fairness, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of an attack; it's more about the potential scale of attack if ever happens
Read 5 tweets
Aug 25
Joe Lonsdale, founder of 8VC and employer of the son of sanctioned Russian oligarch Vadim Moshkovich, has brushed off allegations of Moshkovich's involvement in drone production. For clarity, let's focus on the facts, documents, and records.

🧵Thread: Image
2/ First, let’s examine the rule issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Industry and Security. It clearly states that Assistagro and Geomiragro are contributing to the development of military-grade drones in Russia.

Source: federalregister.gov/documents/2023…
Image
3/ Vadim Moshkovich is the founder of several companies, including AssistAgro. His role as both founder and investor in this company can be confirmed through various sources, including public company databases, official records, and media reports. Sources in the next tweet Image
Read 15 tweets

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