Frontelligence Insight team, upon a thorough examination of multiple satellite shots spanning from October 10th to November 28th, has identified over 211 destroyed or damaged and abandoned Russian vehicles in the vicinity of Avdiivka. 🧵Thread:
2/ Our initial report included over 109 vehicles between October 10th and October 20th, excluding the area west of Vodyane. This time, we expanded our coverage to include the entire area until November 28th, 2023, bringing the total number to 211.
3/ Losses identified in Part 1 or occurring before October 10th—the start of the assault—are marked with white squares. Ukrainian losses are excluded from this report, focusing on Russian losses, though we couldn't identify more than 7.
4/ This number surpasses Russian losses in any other single battle, including Vuhledar, marking it the most devastating battle for Russian forces in terms of vehicle losses. The primary categories of losses include tanks, BMPs, BTRs, MTLB, some IMVs, a couple of trucks, and MLRS
5/ Notably, not all confirmed FPV drone hits led to observable destroyed vehicles in satellite imagery. Some vehicles may remain operational or get evacuated for repairs. An FPV drone hit doesn't always indicate a vehicle loss.
6/ Around 50% of these losses occurred in the first three weeks of the offensive, with occasional peaks in the October-December period. This aligns with our earlier reports about a shift towards infantry assaults instead of massive mechanized troops.
7/ We excluded several locations recorded on videos where Russian vehicles were destroyed due to the extensive explosions. However, on the imagery, there was nothing left to identify as a vehicle, other than a scorch mark and crater.
8/ To enhance accuracy, we compared imagery from September and October to exclude vehicles destroyed before October 10th and those included in the previous report. Errors and misidentifications might still exist, but they are estimated to be no more than 12.75%
9/ The total number of losses would amount to approximately slightly over the complete annihilation of 5 battalions. This represents significant losses in both equipment and personnel, considering the achieved results.
10/ The complete list of losses with images can be found on the website linked in my bio. (I am not including the link in the thread as it significantly degrades the visibility of this thread and doesn't show up in the timeline.)
11/ Our team is working on multiple projects, including tracking the expansion of Russian military infrastructure. Considering that we do not have stable financing, please consider the BuyMeaCoffee option linked in my bio to support us, given the very limited resources we have.
12/ Our teams utilized geolocated data to visually map Russian vehicle losses between October 10th and November 28th, aiding in visualizing the battle for Avdiivka and identifying locations with the highest concentration and number of vehicle losses.
13/ These materials were prepared by the Frontelligence Insight team, with assistance from volunteers and with OSINT geolocated materials: @naalsio26 , @Danspiun , @AndrewPerpetua , and @GeoConfirmed
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In collaboration with @casusbellii, our team Frontelligence Insight investigated a large Russian convoy: over 100 vehicles, including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other equipment, that rolled into Bamako, Mali. We've assessed its composition and origins. 🧵Thread:
2/ On January 17, 2025, local media Cap Mali+, streamed a more than 30-minute video of a column of vehicles passing through unnamed Malian streets. The convoy included over 100 vehicles, with roughly half consisting of trucks and the other half made up of combat vehicles
3/ The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
You may not have heard of tantalum, but there’s a good chance it’s in the phone or computer you're using to read this. It’s also a key part in Russia’s military electronics, and its shortage, driven by sanctions, is causing disruptions. Frontelligence Insight's latest assessment:
2/ Russia relies on tantalum to produce tantalum powders for capacitors used in control, navigation, and signal processing systems. While Russia has tantalum deposits, they are limited, and it lacks advanced processing facilities to process a raw tantalum
3/ Historically, tantalum processing has been conducted at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Kazakhstan, a facility built during the Soviet era. When sanctions were implemented, Kazakhstan joined them, cutting off Russia’s primary supply of processed tantalum.
1/ Why is Ukraine losing ground? There are many explanations, ranging from a lack of aid to a lack of political will to win. The reality, however, is far more complex. This thread offers a brief excerpt from my recent analysis, with the full link provided at the end.
🧵Thread:
2/ Many struggles that the Ukrainian military faces stem from before 2022 and have scaled significantly by 2025. A mobilized force, where teachers, farmers, and IT workers replaced the professional core, turned what began as 'growing pains' into systemic flaws
3/ A damning report on Ukraine’s 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade grotesquely exposed systematic issues. Despite training in France and sufficient funding and equipment, the unit faced high AWOL rates and fragmentation across frontline units. The issues that lead to it are systematic
When Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in Syria, a critical geopolitical question emerged: can Russia maintain its foothold in the MENA region, and if so, how? What does this mean for Ukraine? Below are the key points from the latest Frontelligence Insight report:
2/ Maxar satellite images, dated December 17, show an unusual buildup of vehicles at the Tartus Naval Base. Video from site show that most of these vehicles are logistical, with only a few appearing to be combat vehicles. We identified approximately 150 vehicles and 29 containers
3/ It is assessed that the vehicles are likely being prepared for evacuation from the Tartus by naval vessels. Indications suggest that two Russian cargo ships, Sparta and Ursa Major, could be involved in the operation. It could take over a week for them to reach the port
The Pokrovsk direction, once known as the Avdiivka direction, remains one of the most active and difficult areas. After failing to seize the town directly, as in Novohrodivka, Russian forces pushed towards south of the town, creating an increasingly dangerous situation.🧵Thread
2/ The fall of Selydove has allowed Russian forces to advance south of Pokrovsk, opening a path to Shevchenko, a key settlement before the town itself. With this vital position now almost lost, Russian forces can now expand to the south of Pokrovsk.
3/ A particularly bad development reported to our team is the growing Russian effort to target supply routes leading to Pokrovsk with FPV drones. Ground reports to our team confirm that russians have successfully deployed FPV drones with fiber-optic cables along the E-50 highway
Famous YouTuber @johnnywharris, with 6 million followers, released a video titled "Why People Blame America for the War in Ukraine." He presented his argument in it, essentially blaming the West for causing Russia's imperialistic rise. I find it necessary to respond🧵:
2/ In essence, Johnny claims that after the USSR collapse, Russia was excluded from Western society and draws parallels to the treatment of Weimar Germany under the Treaty of Versailles, suggesting that an unjust settlement fueled militarization in both cases
3/ So, what's wrong with that vision? First, shortly after the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia engaged in conflicts and created pro-Russian pseudo-states, a scenario it later replicated in Ukraine in 2014. Specific examples include Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 1992–1993.