Thread by @Mij_Europe

Last week's European Council shows that Hungary-EU relations are likely broken beyond repair & ultimately heading towards breaking point. It is wrong to draw any comfort whatsoever from @PM_ViktorOrban decision to enable Ukraine's EU membership talks to begin 1/

Orban's decision to walk out of the room means he does not support Ukraine's EU aspirations. That is an immovable constraint in a process that is *totally* dependant upon unanimity at every single stage 2/

1/ Adoption of negotiating framework for Ukraine/EU talks
2/ Opening & closing of 35 chapters Kyiv must complete to enter EU (look at Turkey)
3/ Final accession treaty which also requires national ratification

Here's Orban's chief aide @BalazsOrban_HU 3/

https://x.com/balazsorban_hu/status/1735399660871667812?s=48

But the EU's Hungary problem is much, much bigger than Ukraine. Just over the horizon, there is an (arguably) unresolvable and hence existential fight looming, of which Ukraine is only a small part 4/

To understand what @PM_ViktorOrban is up to, we need to clearly understand his goal(s). What are they? Put simply: regime survival. *Whether in or outside the EU*. The problem for him is that the survival of his regime may now be incompatible with EU membership over long term 5/

Why? Because of EU instruments - eg Rule of Law Mechanism & Recovery & Resilience Facility - that EU designed after Covid pandemic which now require domestic reforms to basically protect against corruption & intro greater transparency for €bn to be released to Hungary 6/

This is a major problem for Orban. Put simply: if he fully implements the reforms the EU is seeking, it will be much harder for him to misappropriate €bn from Bxl to grease the patronage network upon which his power relies 7/

If he doesn't implement reforms, he's unlikely to see € from Bxl key to his kleptocratic regime. Orban thus needs Bxl to release money to his Govt without him properly implementing reforms EU is seeking. That is equilibrium he's trying to achieve by use of vetoes & blackmail 8/

Hence walkout over Ukraine's EU decision & multiple vetoes he will likely use in future. Or billboard campaign against @vonderleyen Orban is running in Hungary - to have leverage over her reconfirmation as @EU_Commission President for 2nd term after EU elections on 6-9 June 9/

Critics argue EU is soft & Orban is winning argument. But that's unfair. More interesting is that EU is holding line quite well. Despite extensive negotiations, only €10bn has been released to Budapest so far. EU also still sitting on €22bn some of which Orban may never see 10/

This partly explains why Orban is trying to help likeminded allies in EU win or retain power - to build a coalition in European Council. Remember his €10,6mn loan to @MLP_officiel? 11/

lemonde.fr/election-presi…

Or in December 2021, his €12mn transfer to media companies close to @JJansaSDS SDS 12/

necenzurirano.si/clanek/preisko…

Or more recently, Orban's financial assistance for far-right PiS in Poland, including campaign communications support & advisers in Sept – Oct 2023 (exact amounts weren't reported). See reports below, for example 13/



tygodnikpowszechny.pl
hvg.hu/itthon/2023111…

Orban is arguably the biggest sponsor of the far right in EU. He will surely be looking closely at elections in Austria and Govt formation talks in the Netherlands over the coming months as well 14/

But Orban is surely also preparing for the worst: a situation where long term survival of his regime is ultimately incompatible with new strictures of EU membership - either because he has to implement reforms Bxl wants, or doesn't, in which case he doesn't get €bn he needs 15/

Many senior EU officials & opposition Hungarian officials think this largely explains alliances Orban is building with Russia, China & Trump in US. One day, over longer term, his regime may be more dependant for its survival on these regimes than EU membership 16/

Ukraine also plays an imp role here - as it joining EU would accelerate Hungary's transition from net recipient from EU budget to a contributor towards it, further diluting benefits of membership. That's why senior EU officials are skeptical Orban will ever let Ukraine join 17/

Senior opposition Hungarian voices are convinced Orban is trying to build a political majority in Hungary against EU he can leverage if he ever needs to leave - one day. What Orban doesn't have an answer for is how economy could survive outside Customs Union or Single Market 18/

But that is what Hungarian officials are keen to explore. For eg, when @EmmanuelMacron first conceived of European Political Community, senior Hungarian officials lobbied @Elysee to try & get bits of Single Market attached to it. So p'haps this hypothesis isn't so far fetched 19/

Put differently @PM_ViktorOrban has the contours of a strategy, but not a timeline. The question he is trying to solve for is “Can my system be sustained in the EU?” This suggests a strongly negative trajectory for Hungary-EU relations going forward 20/

Orban is a structural problem for EU. The survival of his regime within EU is going to require ever more maverick & extreme behaviour by him in future - on Ukraine & more. As well as preparation for the day his survival & EU membership are fundamentally no longer compatible

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