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Bulgaria is appropriately considered the most pro-Ru European country. Polls show 40% think the Ru-Ukr war isn't Ru's fault and this is usually chalked up to traditional pro-Ru sentiment due to Ru's role in Bg independence from the Ottoman empire and shared Orthodoxy, but...🧵
the last few days suggest that this pro-Ru sentiment might be more superficial and a knee-jerk expression of a stereotype than a deeply held/felt position. The dismantlement of the Soviet Army monument slowly taking place in the middle of Sofia illustrates this point...
OTOH, pro-Ru politicians are vocally dramatic about the dismantlement, almost as much as the Ru embassy. The president, the Socialists, and the far right Revival have called it "barbarian" and anthropomorphize the sculptures, descrying their "beheading" and "dismemberment". But..
instead of organizing protests, the pro-Ru parties are trying to disrupt the dismantlement process by going to court. Why? Because it looks like they don't have the capacity to trigger a major protest. An attempt a few days ago produced a small crowd only...
even though the removal of a monument from a park is a straightforward focal point and Bulgarians are enthusiastic protestors, having maintained months-long anti-govt protests both in 2020-21 and in 2013-2014. It just seems they're not as angry as some politicians appear to be.
To emphasize-- the pro-Ru segment is a minority; a sizable 30-40%, but a minority. Such a minority could easily sustain a major protest if it cares deeply abt an issue. My hypothesis in this 🧵is that even this minority isn't committed to a pro-Ru position strongly enough. END
PS. FWIW, the dismantlement process has been a drawn out affair. The opposition had ample opportunity to stage a protest and if a major/sustained protest had taken place, it's likely the govt would've backed off and left the monument in place.
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