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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Dec 17 • 76 tweets • 21 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 16 - 29, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 20 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Dec 16-29, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 18.6 - SEVERE Alberta: 15.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 13.8 - SEVERE Manitoba: 27.2 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 25.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.3 - SEVERE North: 14.7 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 15.8 - SEVERE Ontario: 19.7 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 15.0 - SEVERE Quebec: 19.1 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 19.7 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard ...
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

EXTRÊME : CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK
GRAVE : aucun
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : aucun
ÉLEVÉ : aucun
MODÉRÉ : aucun
FAIBLE : aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 20 au Canada est actuellement infectée Image
Protect everyone when gathering to celebrate this year:

Test before gathering
Serve fresh air
Wear your best mask

#BreakTheChain A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Happy group of singers in right corner. 3 blue boxes with info: 100 people singing indoors, 90 min, no precautions Is the same Covid health risk as each person smoking 1,080 cigarettes. Wear N95 mask: 116 cigarettes each. Wear N99 or taped sealed N95 mask: 12 cigarettes each. Protect everyone: Test before gathering, serve fresh air, Wear your best mask. *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Person with child, both with N95 masks, in lower left corner says: Did you know…? Upgrading your mask decr...
We are testing new ways to help people understand the current risk of specific activities.

This is our first attempt at a new format. Please provide feedback!

This card supports the data shown in the previous Tweet’s illustration. Image
THREAD OUTLINE:

- Links to data sources, resources

- What’s new this week?

-Current COVID Forecasts by province
PLAN DU FIL :

- Liens vers des sources de données et des ressources

- Quoi de neuf cette semaine ?

- Prévisions actuelles du COVID par province
Information about methods, forecast inputs, estimated infections, long COVID cases, hospital and ICU admissions and deaths is available in our biweekly report at link here:

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Des infos sur les méthodes, prévisions, infections estimées, cas de COVID à long terme, admissions dans les hôpitaux et soins intensifs ainsi que les décès sont disponibles dans notre rapport bihebdomadaire ici :

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Information about excess mortality in every Canadian province is available in our monthly report at link here:

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
Des informations sur la surmortalité dans chaque province canadienne sont disponibles dans notre rapport mensuel en cliquant ici :

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
Do you have questions about:

-this week’s forecast
-COVID
-vaccines
-masks
-risks of specific activities

We can help!

You can join one of our free evening Zoom sessions by signing up at the link here:

covid19resources.ca/discussions
Vous avez des questions?

-les prévisions
-COVID
-les vaccins
-les masques
-les risques liés à certaines activités

Nous pouvons vous aider !

Vous pouvez participer à l'une de nos sessions Zoom gratuites en vous inscrivant ici :

covid19resources.ca/discussions
Do you want to see how the forecast is changing as new data come in?

You can go to the Forecast Inputs page of the report (p11). Most pages of the report are live. We enter data on Wed, Fri and Sat each week.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Souhaitez-vous voir comment la prévision évolue avec l'arrivée de nouvelles données ?

Vous pouvez consulter la page "Forecast Inputs" du rapport (p11). La plupart des pages du rapport sont en direct.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Need free masks or RATs?
@DonateMask has your back!

They also have disposable and elastomeric masks for sale. All proceeds go to free supplies for those in need, please support them if you can

donatemask.ca
@DonateMask Avez-vous besoin de respirateurs ou de tests rapides gratuits ?

@DonateMask vous soutient !
@DonateMask Ils vendent également des masques jetables et élastomères. Tous les bénéfices sont affectés à des fournitures gratuites pour les personnes dans le besoin. Merci de les soutenir si vous le pouvez.

donatemask.ca
@DonateMask Looking for infographic posters about Covid-19, Post-Covid, Long Covid & Post-Viral Illness for your community boards?

Check out @BIRcovidhealth on twitter
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Cherchez-vous des affiches infographiques sur la COVID-19, la post-COVID, la COVID longue et le syndrome post-COVID pour vos tableaux d'affichage communautaires ?

Consultez @BIRcovidhealth sur Twitter
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth WHAT’S NEW THIS WEEK?

About 1 in 20 people in Canada is currently infected. COVID Forecast scores in most regions are stable, and are about 17% lower than the maximum previous peaks of excess mortality for the epidemic to date in Canada. Graph showing estimated new daily infections for Canada, the provinces, and territories (15-day rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 17 (Infections)
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth 5 week waste water averages across Canada are decreasing 3%/week. Average Canadian test positivity rates are stable (no change). Graph showing Canada's estimated daily infections since Dec 2021: Model vs Waste water vs Seroreversion-adjusted seroprevalence (5 week mid-aligned rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 12 (Waste water vs Model-estimated infections: CAN, NL, PEI, NS)
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Estimated reported and expected healthcare system impact (hospital admissions, daily life activity-limiting long COVID) is increasing 13%/week. This suggests healthcare system impact is increasing. Reported and expected deaths are decreasing 3%/week).

Graph showing Canada's estimated (predicted) new daily COVID hospitalizations, by province, since Dec 2021. (15 day rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 22 (Hospitalizations, ICU)
Graph showing Estimated new daily infections resulting in daily life activity-limiting symptoms lasting >3 months, by province, since Dec 2021. (15 day rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 19 (Long COVID)
Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth We have reformatted some parts of the forecast and reduced smoothing of scores to better see rapid changes and increase the forecast dynamic range.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth In Canada, during the first 10 months of 2023, on average 25 COVID-19 hospital outbreaks/week were reported to PHAC.

This is 9.8 outbreaks/week for Ontario, if the province has reported all of its hospital outbreaks to PHAC.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth As of December 15th, at least 16/34 Ontario Public Health Unit regions are experiencing Covid-19 outbreaks in their hospitals. 6 PHUs don’t do any public reporting, or only report PHO numbers which don’t specify the type of setting (LTC, hospital, retirement home, etc).
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Fall hospital outbreaks seem to have peaked at 94+ outbreaks and are currently in decline. There were at least 59 Covid outbreaks in ON hospitals as of Dec. 15th. The number may be higher but can’t be found due to some of the PHUs’ reporting methods.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Fall hospital outbreaks seem to have peaked at 94+ outbreaks and are currently in decline. There were at least 59 Covid outbreaks in ON hospitals as of Dec. 15th. The number may be higher but can’t be found due to some of the PHUs’ reporting methods.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Until Jan. 6th, @SafeCareON is focusing on a province-wide strategy to advocate for universal masking in hospitals. Using their simple tool with pre-scripted text and email addresses, join their campaign for universal masking in all #Ontario health care facilities!
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Please help build a critical mass and urge those in charge to change course. Join @SafeCareON and send your email to institutional, health, and political leaders today! It only takes a minute. For the safety of all, #Masking should be universal in health care.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Ontario wastewater is high & still rising, & hospital outbreaks will likely continue over the winter respiratory virus season. Subscribe at to get notified about which regions' hospitals will be our focus in 2024.

Our voices are louder together!safecare.initiative.works
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON QUOI DE NEUF CETTE SEMAINE ?
Environ 1 personne sur 20 est actuellement infectée au Canada. Dans la plupart des régions, les résultats des prévisions COVID sont stables, et sont inférieurs d’environ 17 % aux pics maximaux précédents ... Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON de surmortalité pour l'épidémie à ce jour au Canada.

Les moyennes sur cinq semaines des eaux usées au Canada diminuent de 3 % par semaine. Les taux moyens de positivité des tests au Canada sont stables (aucun changement). Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON L'impact estimé, rapporté et attendu sur le système de santé (admissions à l'hôpital et aux soins intensifs, COVID longue limitant les activités de la vie quotidienne) augmente de 13 % par semaine. Cela indique que l’impact sur le système de santé augmente.
Image
Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Les décès déclarés et attendus diminuent de 3 % par semaine.

Nous avons reformaté certaines parties des prévisions et réduit le lissage des scores pour mieux percevoir les changements rapides et augmenter la plage dynamique des prévisions. Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Au Canada, au cours des 10 premiers mois de 2023, 25 éclosions/semaine de COVID-19 ont été rapportées à l’Agence de la santé publique du Canada (PHAC).
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Ceci correspond à 9,8 éclosions/semaine pour l’Ontario, à condition que la province ait signalé toutes les éclosions hospitalières à PHAC.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Depuis le 15 décembre, au moins 16 des 34 bureaux de santé publique de l'Ontario connaissent des éclosions de la Covid-19 dans leurs hôpitaux. 6 bureaux ne font aucun rapport public ou ne déclarent que les numéros des bureaux de santé publique …
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON qui ne précisent pas le type d'établissement (SLD, hôpital, maison de retraite, etc.).

Les éclosions d’automne dans les hôpitaux semblent avoir culminé à plus de 94 éclosions et sont actuellement en déclin.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Au 15 décembre, on comptait au moins 59 éclosions de COVID dans les hôpitaux de l’Ontario. Le nombre pourrait être plus élevé, mais ne peut être trouvé en raison des méthodes de déclaration de certains bureaux de santé publique.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Parmi les bureaux de santé publique qui partagent le nombre de cas dans chaque éclosion, les hôpitaux de la région de York comptent 39 patients infectés lors d’éclosions et les hôpitaux d'Ottawa en comptent 54.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Jusqu’au 6 janvier, @SafeCareON met l’accent sur une stratégie provinciale visant à promouvoir le port du masque universel dans les hôpitaux. En utilisant leur outil simple avec des textes et adresses électroniques préprogrammés …
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON participez à leur campagne pour le port du masque universel dans tous les établissements de soins de santé de l’Ontario !

Aidez-nous à atteindre une masse critique et à exhortez les responsables à changer de cap.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Joignez-vous à @SafeCareON et envoyez votre courriel aux leaders institutionnels, sanitaires et politiques dès aujourd’hui ! Cela ne prend qu’une minute. Pour la sécurité de tous, le port du masque devrait être universel dans les soins de santé.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Les eaux usées de l’Ontario sont élevées et continuent d’augmenter, et les éclosions dans les hôpitaux se poursuivront probablement pendant la saison hivernale des virus respiratoires.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Abonnez-vous à pour être informé des hôpitaux des régions qui feront l’objet de notre attention en 2024. Ensemble, nos voix portent plus loin !safecare.initiative.works
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 20 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~24X higher
-Long COVID ~22X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~17X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.6 About 1 of every 20 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,388,000-1,870,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 23.7X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 22.2X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.0X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 17.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks AV...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

CANADA

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 20 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~24X supérieur
-COVID longue ~22X supérieur
-Hospitalisations ~15X supérieur
-Décès ~17X supérieur Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 19 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~22X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~18X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.3 About 1 of every 19 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 17,900-24,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 21.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.4X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 17.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-ty...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 19 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~22X🔺
-COVID longue ~23X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~15X🔺
-Décès ~18X 🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 19 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~21X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~12X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Prince Edward Island's COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 15.0 About 1 of every 19 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 5,400-7,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 20.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 12.2X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 12.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type ma...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 16 - 29 déc, 2023

ÎLE DU PRINCE ÉDOUARD

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 19 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~21X🔺
-COVID longue ~20X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~12X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 29 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~16X higher
-Long COVID ~14X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~17X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 15.8 About 1 of every 29 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 22,300-30,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 16.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 14.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 14.2X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 17.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE:...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 16 - 29 déc, 2023

NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 29 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~16X🔺
-COVID longue ~14X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~14X🔺
-Décès ~17X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 17 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~30X higher
-Long COVID ~24X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~26X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. New Brunswick’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 25.4 About 1 of every 17 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 29,400-39,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 30.4X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 19.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks A...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

NOUVEAU BRUNSWICK

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 17 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~30X🔺
-COVID longue ~24X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~26X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

QUÉBEC

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 17 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~16X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 19.1 About 1 of every 17 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 307,200-413,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 26.9X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 22.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 14.5X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 15.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks AVOID ...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

QUÉBEC

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 17 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X🔺
-COVID longue ~23X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~15X🔺
-Décès ~16X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

ONTARIO

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 13 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~30X higher
-Long COVID ~29X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~13X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 19.7 About 1 of every 13 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 728,600-981,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 30.3X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 29.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.5X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 13.4X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks AVOID...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

ONTARIO

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 13 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~30X🔺
-COVID longue ~29X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~13X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

MANITOBA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 14 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~32X higher
-Long COVID ~26X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~30X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Manitoba’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.2 About 1 of every 14 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 59,000-79,400 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 31.7X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 26.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 19.8X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 30.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks AVOID ...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

MANITOBA

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 14 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~32X🔺
-COVID longue ~26X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~30X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 29 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~14X higher
-Long COVID ~12X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~29X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 19.7 About 1 of every 29 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 23,100-31,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 14.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 12.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.6X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 29.4X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks AV...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 29 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~14X🔺
-COVID longue ~12X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~29X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

ALBERTA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 26 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~15X higher
-Long COVID ~14X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~19X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Alberta’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 15.3 About 1 of every 26 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 98,000-131,900 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 14.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 13.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 12.1X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 19.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks AVOID ...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

ALBERTA

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 26 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~15X🔺
-COVID longue ~14X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~19X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 34 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~11X higher
-Hospitalizations ~13X higher
-Deaths ~19X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. British Columbia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 13.8 About 1 in every 34 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 94,000-126,500 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 8.7X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 11.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 13.4X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 19.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type mas...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

COLOMBIE BRITANNIQUE

EXTRÊME (En hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 34 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~9X🔺
-COVID longue ~11X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~13X🔺
-Décès ~19X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 16 - 29, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 23 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~19X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~11X higher
-Deaths ~14X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Dec 16-29, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nunavut, NWT, & Yukon’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 14.7 About 1 of every 23 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,300-4,400 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 19.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 16.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 11.0X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 14.2X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type m...
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Prévisions de COVID : 16 - 29 déc, 2023

NUNAVUT, TNO, YUKON

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 23 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~19X🔺
-COVID longue ~16X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~11X🔺
-Décès ~14X🔺 Image
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.

The next forecast will be ~ January 13, 2024.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON N'oubliez pas que les prévisions reflètent non seulement les données récentes, mais aussi les chiffres attendus pour les deux semaines à venir, sur la base des tendances moyennes sur cinq semaines.

La prochaine prévision sera disponible ~ le 13 janvier 2024.
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON Thanks to @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lamarche_denise for data input, graphics and translation.

Thanks to the whole @covid_19_canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth @safecareON @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @COVID_19_Canada Merci à @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lamarche_denise pour la saisie des données, les graphiques et la traduction.

Merci à toute l'équipe de @covid_19_canada pour les commentaires hebdomadaires et pour la poursuite de notre travail.

#EnsembleNousPouvons
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Of the PHUs that share # of cases in each outbreak, York Region hospitals have 39 patients infected in outbreaks and Ottawa hospitals have 54.

(I'm so sorry, I missed this part of the sequence while doing the thread earlier)
@DonateMask @BIRcovidhealth Now back to the rest of the thread...

I accidentally skipped a tweet in the @safecareON section of the thread!

I looped it into the right spot, but it's not visible unless you click on the replies to the preceding tweet 😢

• • •

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 9
% excess mortality for Canada from 2020-2022 for SPECIFIC CAUSES OF DEATH now up on our excess mortality tracker

Thanks to @StatCan_eng for the data.

I'll do a brief summary thread here.

You can view/download the analysis on p21 of tracker.

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
@StatCan_eng We calculate age-specific mortality rates for each cause of death from 2015-2022, then compare each of 2020, 2021 and 2022 to the 2015-2019 mean.

Our page reports only on specific causes of death in 2020-2022 greater than the 2015-2019 mean +95%CI.
@StatCan_eng The report also excludes some specific causes of death that account for less than 0.1% of total excess mortality over the 2020-2022 period.
Read 69 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 4
FYI

Hosting a dinner party of 12 avg Canadians currently carries COVID health risks equivalent to each person smoking 84 cigarettes.

33 cigarettes if you open windows/run HEPA filters.

The average smoker smokes this in a week.

It's like holding the party in a very smoky bar.
Number of cigarettes smoked is great way to view this. It's not catastrophic, but it's clearly not great.

It's up to the host and party-goers to decide whether the environment is like a VERY smoky bar (no mitigations), or a decidedly less smoky bar (open windows, HEPA).
If people test immediately before attending/hosting, the risk goes down to be the equivalent of less than half a pack of cigarettes smoked/person, which still seems like a lot, but is also at least what the average smoker smokes per day.
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 3
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 2 - 15, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 39 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Dec 2-15, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 16.7 - SEVERE Alberta: 16.7 - SEVERE British Columbia: 13.6 - SEVERE Manitoba: 24.5 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 16.6 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 15.7 - SEVERE North: 15.7 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 14.8 - SEVERE Ontario: 14.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.4 - SEVERE Quebec: 19.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 19.7 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard i...
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 2 - 15 déc, 2023

EXTRÊME : CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK
GRAVE : aucun
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : aucun
ÉLEVÉ : aucun
MODÉRÉ : aucun
FAIBLE : aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 39 au Canada est actuellement infectée Image
Protect everyone at your holiday get-togethers this year:
Test before gathering
Serve fresh air
Mask when not eating

#BreakTheChain
#COVIDisAirborne
#MaskUp A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Group gathers in the corner. 3 blue boxes with info: 12 person dinner party, no precautions is the same as each person smoking 95 cigarettes. Open windows, run HEPA filters: 33 cigarettes each Move party outdoors: 1/2 a cigarette each Protect everyone: Test before gathering, serve fresh air, mask when not eating. *Data source: covid19resources.ca & Risk Scenario Estimator. Woman with N95 mask in lower left corner says: Did you know…? Guests testing before the party can reduce risk by 50%. Image lower right, a gender-ne...
Read 70 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast update: Nov 25-Dec 1

We've revised the forecast, based on this week's data.

Number of people infected:
🔴1 in 14: AB, MB
🔴1 in 15: QC, SK
🔴1 in 18: CAN, North, ON
🔴1 in 20: NB
🔴1 in 22: NL
🔴1 in 23: BC
🔴1 in 27: PEI
🔴1 in 37: NS

GET YOUR SHOTS! Image
We don't normally do an interim forecast. Our next forecast is this coming weekend.

However, numbers are really going back up again, after a brief decline.

We won't do longform graphics for this interim forecast, but wanted to get the info out ASAP.
Fewer than 6% of people in Canada have the recent XBB shot.

Excess mortality is climbing faster than 2022, which is NOT good.

The shot protects against hospitalization, death and long COVID.

Get it NOW. Do NOT wait for Novavax unless you have to. Infections are too high.
Read 9 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 19
The Canadian COVID-19 Excess Mortality Tracker is updated to Sep 2/23.

We're now correcting for drug deaths, heat wave, accidents, suicide, mass homicide events AND estimated excess deaths due to delayed healthcare (excess cancer mortality).

Mortality is increasing fast. Again. Image
Link to tracker is here: covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
I'm playing around with adding % excess mortality to the biweekly forecast graphics, to help people understand that the forecast typically UNDER-PREDICTS excess mortality--i.e. when we say it's severe, it really is severe.

Let us know what you think. Image
Read 8 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 5
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 4 - 17, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 23 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 4 - 17, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 19.4 - SEVERE Alberta: 17.5 - SEVERE British Columbia: 15.3 - SEVERE Manitoba: 20.3 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 20.9 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 21.6 - SEVERE North: 15.5 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 14.3 - SEVERE Ontario: 20.9 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 14.3 - SEVERE Quebec: 13.8 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 21.0 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Hazard...
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 4 - 17 nov, 2023

EXTRÊME: CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK
GRAVE: aucun
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ: aucun
ÉLEVÉ: aucun
MODÉRÉ: aucun
FAIBLE: aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 23 au Canada est actuellement infectée
Studies show even mild COVID can have long term effects.

#MasksKeepUsSafe

Graphic courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has 3 inset frames. Top frame: Caption surrounding silhouette image on beige background: Covid Can Make You Lose Sense. Person with hand touching lips, surrounded by green shaded circles with text: Ringing Ears, Loss of Smell, Numb Hands & Toes, Loss of Taste, Blurry Vision. Message: Studies show even Mild Covid can have long term effects. #MasksKeepUsSafe. BIRCH Illus. by @haziethompson. Graphic courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission. Image, below, left, is a gender-neutral Superhero wearing an N95 face mask and cape, N...
Read 65 tweets

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