John Ʌ Konrad V Profile picture
Dec 18, 2023 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A tourniquet is tightening on Europe's lifeblood in the dead of winter. Here are the TOP 10 reasons why BP pausing oil tanker transits in the Red Sea is more 🚨alarming 🚨than @Maersk 's pause:

1️⃣Tankers have limited speed capabilities and cannot accelerate to make up time while navigating the longer route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.
2️⃣While there is surplus capacity in the containership market, the tanker market has minimal excess capacity.
3️⃣The largest players in the tanker industry (e.g., $INSW, $FRO, $STNG) control a smaller market share compared to dominant container shipping companies (@MSCCargo, @Maersk, @cmacgm). Small companies and private entities are more likely to sail into war zones than large multinational conglomerates. If $FRO stopped all their ships the impact would be minimal because there are a large number of independent ship owners - the largest contingent being Greek - that could replace them.
4️⃣BP, owns few ships today. They are more of a customer than a carrier. This is akin to retail giants like Walmart or Amazon halting shipping, a significant move beyond @Maersk's decision. Enormous customers like BP can better coordinate and shut down both the major lines and independents.
5️⃣The Houthis, backed by Iran, stand to gain economically. Global oil prices might rise, benefiting Iran, while prices in Asia could drop relatively, as routes to Asia remain open, benefitting Iran's key trading partner: China.
6️⃣Oil companies, wielding more influence over Western naval policies than container lines, are better equipped to manage disruptions from armed conflicts and have more experience exerting political pressure on the military. They are better equipped to help the US Navy and NATO organize a response.
7️⃣Tankers carry hazardous cargo, and oil companies have superior risk analysis systems. If tankers continued to sail while @Maersk paused, it could lead to accusations of overreaction against Maersk.
8️⃣In a Red Sea crisis, foreign-flagged lines could swap with U.S.-flagged ships like those owned by $MATX and @Maersk, which are guaranteed U.S. Navy protection. BP might similarly align with $OSG, the biggest U.S. flagged tanker company, but OSG very little spare capacity right now and many of their ships can't relocate ships because they are contracted to the Department of Defense.
9️⃣Futures markets can greatly influence oil prices in the short term, allowing commodity traders to potentially magnify the crisis. Oil is vital for a broader range of industries than container ships, impacting politicians and geopolitical tensions more directly.
🔟Oil tankers and Middle East conflicts are.. well.. historically an explosive combo

The lack of flexibility in the tanker market right now is my primary concern. Container ships can increase speed to compensate for delays, and capacity can be shifted from quieter routes. However, tankers typically sail only when full, face an extremely tight market with few spare vessels, and lack the speed to "make up time" while rounding the Cape of Good Hope

Many tankers are also over-extended right now moving cargo from USA to Europe and Asia to replace sanctioned Russian crude. The Gulf of Mexico to Asia route is especially worrying because low water levels in the Panama Canal are already starting to cause tankers to reroute around South America's Cape Horn.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with John Ʌ Konrad V

John Ʌ Konrad V Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @johnkonrad

Jun 22
In 1967, the Army picked 14 officers to critique the Vietnam War. 🧵 on David Hackworth's top 6 imperatives - from the military's most decorated soldier. It's shocking how many still resonate with the war in Afganistan & even today's US Navy challenges.

Which one resonates with you the most?Image
1) We have not required the government of SVN (GVN) to establish reforms. It remains a corrupt, inefficient, graft-ridden collection of divided opportunists who have little interest in the people of their country. As a result of these factors, the people have no interest in the GVN and are either actively supporting the VC or completely indifferent to the programs of the GVN. Without the active assistance of the people, an insurgent force cannot be defeated.
2.  Failure to develop overall objectives and a plan of strategy to support these aims which would bring the war to a successful conclusion.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 17
Life is a stage. Even at sea.

A sea story >> Long 🧵warning <<

We were poor not just because dad refused to do anything with his Cornell degree besides help poor people in the Bronx but because he purchased a truly dilapidated house we couldn’t afford in the best school district in America.

While my classmates in High School were sailing, golfing or horseback riding I was lifting drywall or crawling into the attic to staple insulation. It was painfully slow and sucked because we couldn’t afford any mistakes or the proper tools or material. Mistakes triggered Dad’s PTSD.

The school was difficult and Dad made me sign up for the hardest honors track classes. I shouldn’t have qualified but Dad was enormous - as his firehouse buddies would say “built like a brick shithouse” - and had the 1,000 yard stare from Vietnam that nobody said no to.

A few years before High School some rich guy donated a building to the school. A world class theater and classes for an elite performing art center.

Dad made sure I was accepted into this elite High School theater program, kinda like a charter school but I was the opposite of a theater kid, deeply embarrassed to be a nerd, so I refused.

Dad made me do it anyway. He said life is a stage and everyone must perform.

Nobody said no to dad. Not school administrators, not me.

I agreed because the backstage lights and audio and camera work intrigued me. Problem was the program was so well funded they didn’t need volunteers to manage the lights. I would have to perform.

So there I am in my salvation army clothes with bruises from construction surrounded by the confident children of investment bankers and diplomats, attending theatre classes in addition to AP classwork.

The good news, I found out, was they taught the “fundamentals” of performance art which means lots of warm up and confidence exercises. Modern dance too where everyone looks silly so I didn’t feel too embarrassed.

I also learned that I loved to sing. Problem was despite have teachers who made 4 times Dad’s salary so this program could “attract the best” they couldn’t fix my pitch regardless of how much I practiced.

Basically I sucked.

Fast forward a decade and I’m the Chief Mate, XO in Navy parlance, of a massive ship I wasn’t at all prepared to lead. Leadership isn’t about doing more yourself, it’s inspiring others to but most of the crew were boomers with decades at sea I was 24.

I did ok because Dad was right, life is a stage. Give an order with confidence and men will usually follow. Play the part of a Chief Mate, and generally you’ll be ok if you listen to your supervisors (our NCOs)

I could scrape by with hard work, go down and study a job before I ordered men to go do it, always stay a step ahead, read every manual twice, but when bad weather hits - when you are bruised and starving and haven’t slept for days - you just can’t work harder and the reality of your lack of experience is impossible to hide.

So we are in a bad storm that just wouldn’t give up. The type of storm where you stare at the waves and contemplate jumping in with heavy boots to end the misery. Everything was breaking and morale was at all time lows. Bad moral led to more mistakes and when a crane broke loose on deck we almost killed a guy.

At this point I’m angry and burst into the captain’s office demanding to know why he gave me this important job. He only shrugged his shoulders. Then he told me to go out to the bridge wing and yell at the top of my lungs to relieve the anger. He promised me nobody would be able to hear my breakdown because the wind was so strong.

So I did. I yelled and screamed and shook my fist. It was exhausting and not helpful at all. I broke down and sobbed. Cried like a baby.

Now one rule of leadership is you don’t cry like a baby in front of your men but I didn’t care. I wanted a demotion. So I walked right into the crew area still sobbing. To be honest I probably wanted sympathy too.

Nobody noticed. 1/4
The rain was so hard they assumed it my eyes were red from the rain slapping me in the face. I looked defeated but so did everyone. Bad storms do that to a crew. That’s why we were having near misses because nobody was noticing.

Everyone was exhausted. Everyone was angry. Everyone just wanted a hot cup of coffee and a good meal but the galley was closed because of the storm choosing between a can of Vienna sausage or soggy sandwiches wasn’t a choice, it was torture.

Then a tiny ember of warmth entered my gut. I noticed that nobody noticed my balling eyes. I noticed that nobody gave a damn. I could throw someone overboard and nobody would notice or care.

But I no longer wanted to murder someone for making me Chief Mate. I wanted to sing.

Sounds corny I know. Sounds idiotic. But it worked.

I headed back outside and did a full theatrical warm up routine. The breathing exercises, the modern dance poses, the “aahh ahh - eeehh eeehs” the I belted out singing.

I sung a half dozen songs culminating with The Door’s “Riders of the Storm”. I belted that shit out snd it sounded horrible but I did not care because nobody could hear. I could barely hear myself over the cacophony of the wind. Nobody noticed, nobody cared. It was just me and the angry sea.

Except they did notice. When I returned everyone looked at me weird. It was the nightmare I always had performing on stage. Every looking at you like you’re crazy.

They thought I was crazy because I was happy. Grinning ear to ear.

Then it got worse. 2/4

The bosun comes down and yells “there his is” and starts clapping.

He had seen my performance and gave me a standing ovation. He could barely contain his amusement and started showing the guys some of my modern dance moves.

This salty old sailor with a gut that looks like he’s 6 months pregnant starts doing a mock modern dance warm up routine.

Guys are bursting a lung laughing. Then they ask me to sign.

I’m crying again but not in misery but because I’m laughing so hard.

I tell them I’m a trained performance artist and I usually charge for the experience. I do the aahs and eehs to warm up. These guys start to think I can actually sign.

Then I belt out my favorite song “ave maria”

Read 4 tweets
Jun 6
I have cried more times in public because of this man than any person alive. His name is Dave Yoho and he’s a dear friend.

He’s a 🧵 on why this photo is an Impossible Dream come true for Dave
Image
In 1944 Dave wanted to fight for freedom but he ran into a problem, he was only 16 years old.

But one service was desperate for volunteers because it suffered the highest percentage of casualties of any service.

Churchill argued that it was also the most important.
General Marshall wanted to invade France in 1943 but Churchill vehemently disagreed because he understood that logistics wins wars and the allies were not ready.

FDR agreed with Churchill Image
Read 35 tweets
May 26
Some notes and questions from a former Army Watercraft warrant officer (CW4) regarding the Gaza pier sections that beached… 🧵
1. If the US Army had not sold off their 128 ft Large Ocean tugs, and had deployed these vessels to Gaza, the Large Tugs could have provided the towing and assistance required to keep these LCMS and barges from going ashore.
2. Was anyone within the Army Watercraft command monitoring and evaluating weather and oceanographic conditions? US Navy oceanographic commands can provide detailed amphibious and littoral analysis and forecasts, to ensure event such as being washed up on a beach does not occur.
Read 6 tweets
May 12
Earlier this year @michaelgwaltz proposed opening a @DOTMARAD desk at the White House. Sources tell me it was strongly opposed by the NSC.

MARAD ships move ammo to Israel

Here’s Maher Buthar, head of Defense Policy at the NSC, former president of the anti-semitic org SJC 🧵
The enemies of 🇺🇸 know the US Military is too strong and well trained to be defeated in battle.

To take us head on would be foolish but it’s simple to defeat the weakest link in our chain: US Merchant Marine logistics Image
90% years of all military material must move by ship because the entire airlift capacity of the USAF is less than the capacity of a single mega-containership Image
Read 11 tweets
May 11
So just for context this is a Ham Radio operator’s dream. Here’s a 🧵why:

During the solar storm the ham bands are nearly unusable because the sun’s electrical discharge overpowers radio wave. Not good for radio but…
Solar energy not only powers our planet but also energizes the upper atmosphere. After a storm, this energy can create a temporary ionized layer of “crust” around the Earth. Image
This ionosphere acts like a reflective barrier for radio waves, including those from ham radios. Normally, these waves might escape into space, but with this "reflective crust," they can travel further around the Earth. Image
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(