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Putin's war messaging to Russians, and the West's illusions about stopping the war.
Very quick thread. 1/7
Very quick thread. 1/7
At the turn of the year, Putin's message to Russians is:
(1) We are in a forever war with the West, with Russia's survival at stake
(2) There is no war, get on with your lives please
2/7
(1) We are in a forever war with the West, with Russia's survival at stake
(2) There is no war, get on with your lives please
2/7
The first part of Putin's message is 'alternate reality propaganda'; presenting a false picture of reality and claiming it's true.
The second part is post-truth propaganda; saturating the informational environment so as to cast doubt on whether anything is true.
3/7
The second part is post-truth propaganda; saturating the informational environment so as to cast doubt on whether anything is true.
3/7
In my interpretation, Putin's avoidance of a ubiquitous 'forever war' message is a technique to help him move toward a 'forever war'.
The contradictoriness of his messaging should not be taken by us as indicating a lack of conviction.
4/7
The contradictoriness of his messaging should not be taken by us as indicating a lack of conviction.
4/7
The illusion in the West is that Putin will stop under the right circumstances. We just need to wait until those materialise.
In reality, for Putin, any stopping point will be a stopping point on the way to a bigger conflict with the West.
5/7
In reality, for Putin, any stopping point will be a stopping point on the way to a bigger conflict with the West.
5/7
Russia experts frequently point out that Putin won't stop, and that ignoring this will set us up for a big security crisis ahead.
Yet the form this suggestion takes, implying that the problem is a lack of understanding and a lack of willpower, is itself problematic.
6/7
Yet the form this suggestion takes, implying that the problem is a lack of understanding and a lack of willpower, is itself problematic.
6/7
The main obstacle to Western support for Ukraine is domestic democratic incapacity.
One of the challenges of our age is that tying action to a clear vision of a global order might be more than democracies whose institutions are in crisis can do.
7/7
One of the challenges of our age is that tying action to a clear vision of a global order might be more than democracies whose institutions are in crisis can do.
7/7
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