While @johnkonrad has a great list of naval and maritime affair experts in this 🧵 All of them have missed the real point in the Red Sea.
The maritime insurance market market is cratering because of the Chinese proliferation of anti-ship missile ballistic technology to Iran
1/
The maritime insurance market market is cratering because of the Chinese proliferation of anti-ship missile ballistic technology to Iran
1/
https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1735874502569906393
Business 101:
Normal business need business insurance in order to operate.
When insurance actuaries cannot compute a risk, insurance policies are cancelled.
This happened before in 1987 when the Chinese sold Silkworm cruise missiles to Iran.
2/
Normal business need business insurance in order to operate.
When insurance actuaries cannot compute a risk, insurance policies are cancelled.
This happened before in 1987 when the Chinese sold Silkworm cruise missiles to Iran.
2/
Prior to then, Iran lacked anti-ship missiles with big enough warheads to critically damage oil tankers.
Half of all oil tanker losses in the 1980's tanker war were paid by Lloyds.
Lloyds ability to write maritime insurance policies was the critical node in the Tanker War.
3/
Half of all oil tanker losses in the 1980's tanker war were paid by Lloyds.
Lloyds ability to write maritime insurance policies was the critical node in the Tanker War.
3/
UT Austin's Strauss center has one of the few sites on-line that mentions both maritime insurance and the proliferation of Silkworms by China in the 1980's Tanker War.
Unfortunately it doesn't go into the relationship between Silkworms and Lloyds
4/
strausscenter.org/strait-of-horm…
Unfortunately it doesn't go into the relationship between Silkworms and Lloyds
4/
strausscenter.org/strait-of-horm…
...financial position in the immediate aftermath of the Silkworm's arrival in 1987.
Lloyd's insurance actuaries could not computer the military-political risks to charge appropriate War Risk rates to tanker operations, and thus, could not get further lines of credit to cover
5/
Lloyd's insurance actuaries could not computer the military-political risks to charge appropriate War Risk rates to tanker operations, and thus, could not get further lines of credit to cover
5/
...policy losses
This was communicated to the Reagan Administration and thus was created Operation Earnest Will. The U.S. Navy escort of “re-flagged” Kuwaiti tankers starting in July 1987
See Naval History & Heritage Command's 30 year retrospective ⬇️
6/
history.navy.mil/about-us/leade…
This was communicated to the Reagan Administration and thus was created Operation Earnest Will. The U.S. Navy escort of “re-flagged” Kuwaiti tankers starting in July 1987
See Naval History & Heritage Command's 30 year retrospective ⬇️
6/
history.navy.mil/about-us/leade…
Iran's Mullah's, then as now being smarter than your average DC courtier class political sycophant, started laying very deniable sea mines rather than shooting Silkworms.
This lead to Operation Prime Chance, US Army SOF choppers operating from two oil barges and the Iran Ajr
7/
This lead to Operation Prime Chance, US Army SOF choppers operating from two oil barges and the Iran Ajr
7/
...affair. The capture of an Ex-Japanese landing ship operated as a mine layer by Iran.
Shortly afterwards the eight hour Operation Praying Mantis killed 1/2 of the Iranian Republic's existing Naval forces.
8/
navybook.com/no-higher-hono…
Shortly afterwards the eight hour Operation Praying Mantis killed 1/2 of the Iranian Republic's existing Naval forces.
8/
navybook.com/no-higher-hono…
The Reagan Administration then, like the Biden Administration now, pretended that the Chinese proliferation of anti-ship missile technology to Iran has nothing to do with it, because China.
China was an ally in 1987 against the Soviet Union.
In 2023, China isn't an ally,
9/
China was an ally in 1987 against the Soviet Union.
In 2023, China isn't an ally,
9/
...but is a major illegal campaign contributor to both the GOP and the Democratic Parties.
So just like Operation Earnest Will, Operation Prosperity Guardian was kicked off by the Chinese anti-ship missile proliferation...
10/
So just like Operation Earnest Will, Operation Prosperity Guardian was kicked off by the Chinese anti-ship missile proliferation...
10/
https://twitter.com/GeringTuvia/status/1736742111754461521
...and the current Presidential Adm. is denying it for political reasons related to China.
Per Military analyst Zhang Bin 张斌, the Houthi's Khalij Fars-2 missile that hit a merchant ship recently is a 40 year old technology China has proliferated to Iran.
11/
Per Military analyst Zhang Bin 张斌, the Houthi's Khalij Fars-2 missile that hit a merchant ship recently is a 40 year old technology China has proliferated to Iran.
11/
The American national security space is fundamentally delusional about Chinese ASBM.
I did a thread on that back in July 2023.
13/
I did a thread on that back in July 2023.
13/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1685420896704458752
The most important military-technical post in that 🧵points out Chinese ASBM are actually a Chinese implementation of the Pershing II MARV technology with a 2023 electronic tech anti-ship missile seeker.
14/
14/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1685420900265480192
The most important political post was about the pair of delusion paradigms that dominate the thinking of the DC courtier class political sycophants in the US National security space.
15/
15/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1685420903973134337
Just as Pres. Reagan danced to the Chinese tune in 1987 because of maritime insurance/Silkworms.
So Pres. Biden is dancing to China's maritime insurance/ASBM tune with Operation Prosperity Guardian.
16/16 End
So Pres. Biden is dancing to China's maritime insurance/ASBM tune with Operation Prosperity Guardian.
16/16 End
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