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Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Dec 19

Poverty and crime.

In the public imagination, these things go hand-in-hand.

But the link between poverty and crime is much weaker than people might imagine. It might not even be causal.

A new lottery study shows us just that:

🧵

To understand the causes of crime, there are other things you need to understand first.

For example, you need to understand the roles of sex and age.

In the whole country the lottery study results came from, you get this result when you plot both variables.

The collapse in criminal offending from adolescence is the crux of the "age-crime curve". The gap between men and women that declines with age is another important part.

Unlike age and crime, income and crime are nonlinearly related: after a certain level, income barely matters.

Read 25 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Dec 17

The ACT has released their scores for 2023, so I thought I'd put everything in familiar terms and make some plots.

This thread will include lots of pictures!

So, how did everyone do nationally?

Differences were fairly typical.

Assuming Whites had a mean of 100 and an SD of 15

- Asians had a mean of 107.26 and an SD of 21.58
- Blacks had a mean of 86.20 and an SD of 12.54
- Hispanics had a mean of 90 and an SD of 15.21

Here are their scaled densities:

But we know that state-level participation rates and scores are correlated, so taking the ACT is selective.

However, in a few states, every kid took the ACT. These were Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming.

So, how did they do?

Read 17 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Dec 16

What happens when you assign groups of people to

- Exercise without steroids
- Exercise with steroids
- Not exercise without steroids
- Not exercise with steroids

The guys who take steroids and don't exercise gain more muscle than the guys who exercise without steroids!

The above is the familiar outcome from this study. But they measured more things than just fat-free mass gains.

For example, they also measured bench presses.

People who exercised without steroids gained about the same amount as people who didn't exercise, with steroids.

Squats were also measured, and in that one, the people who exercised beat the people who didn't exercise but did take steroids, but both beat the ones who neither exercised nor took roids.

Read 7 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Dec 9

The effect of adding together normal distributions is unintuitive.

If there's a 1 d difference between two groups with equal variances, you might think the result would be a bimodal distribution.

You would be wrong.

Short🧵

So if we widen the gap, say, to 2 d, then we get a distribution that looks rather flat.

Even though the groups were strongly differentiated, the result of throwing them together still wasn't.

Once we make the difference very large, say, 3 d, that's when we finally get to a bimodal combined distribution.

Read 8 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Dec 7

December 7th, a day that will live in infamy, is the day Japan decided to ensure the Axis Powers would lose World War II.

Prior to today's date, many Americans were wishy-washy on joining the war, but Japan changed their tune.

Let's go through the timeline, starting with Sept.:

Initially, America seems narrowly against getting involved.

After Poland fell, sentiment shifted strongly against involvement.

The nadir of American sentiment was when the airwaves became flooded with news about German assaults on the Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

America wanted nothing to do with the war.

Read 13 tweets

Crémieux

@cremieuxrecueil

Dec 6

Do European countries appear to perform worse than White Americans in standardized tests because of low-performing immigrants?

Probably not. Removing 1st- and 2nd-generation immigrants from the 2022 PISA sample, America still outperforms.

🧵

First, mean scores:

Now, let's take a look at mathematics scores.

The Netherlands did jump ahead of American Whites here, but that's about it. Notably, U.S. Asians jumped from 4th to 2nd place!

What about reading? That should be the most impacted, since immigrants are language learners.

While true, this also impacted U.S. Whites. I assume this is due to "White Hispanics" who are English second-language learners, but it's hard to tell.

Read 7 tweets

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