Thread by @ZachLewis3187

We are entering a very scary next phase for Jews irrespective of if they live in Israel or in the diaspora. The threats to both are real, existential, different yet interwoven. Paramount to all is the security of the state and the end of Hamas’ rule in Gaza. 🧵

Let’s start with Israel:

Israel is facing existential threats by Iranian backed terrorist organizations. Israel will win the first phase of this war which is uprooting the Hamas governance of the Strip. That’s not in doubt.

Who it hands control over to is a very real issue and concern that will be addressed and resolved. Whether or not it’s tangible is a different story but it will be closely monitored. Gaza will be rebuilt and the population resettled.

The threat to the north from Hezbollah and Iraqi militias funded by Iran who have moved into Syria is still there, real, but will likely see a warm border with the trading of rockets and targeted strikes or continued strikes against U.S. bases

timesofisrael.com/iraq-scrambles…

Internationally, Israel will see a greater increase in state and economic relations with the Abraham Accord partners and tangentially, Saudi Arabia. Regarding the UN and other international NGOs, Israel (rightly) already felt that they were morally bankrupt.

If October 7th taught Israel anything, it’s that the assumption that they are feckless and morally bankrupt is actually a fact. They are pawns used against Israel with some of the most wild claims easily disproven. For example, Guterres’ “most deadly conflict” claim.

This is an easily disproven statement. Syria is literally on the border. There are over 550,000 dead. Nothing has been done about it, nobody mentions it, and even today, Jasim is being massacred. UN discussions: 0.

https://twitter.com/mohammed_asakra/status/1735959692470288738

I digress. Israel will never again care what the UN or international NGOs have to say. The idea of needing to be embraced by the west outside of political and economic transaction is done. In many ways, Israel recognizes that it stands alone.

Internally, Israel is facing very palpable crises. First, the cost of the war and rebuilding will likely surpass $70B. It also faces secondary and tertiary realities regarding Israeli society and where people live and what that does economically to Israel. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

If Israel cannot both quiet the north and southern borders and convince Israelis to move to these communities, the already crowded Merkaz (middle of the country), will become more unaffordable at a time when wages will be down and the biggest employer will likely be the state.

Rents and cost of living will go up. Add into that increased shipping costs thanks to the Houthis, even if they are not as much as many say, and you have a real concern about the affordability for many Israelis post war. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

If cities like Karmiel, Nahariyya, Qiryat Shmona, Sderot, and the Gaza envelope are not repopulated, it means new communities need to be built around theses areas but more inland, or the already high cost of living will get higher. This is pre war 👇 haaretz.com/israel-news/20…

Why this is relevant also leads to The Diaspora.

Jewish life outside of Israel is under siege everywhere. Antisemitic incidents are up over 1,000% in some places like the UK. Many Jews are asking if there is a future for them outside of Israel. reuters.com/world/uk/antis…

The desire to make Aliyah amongst Jews has increased. In some countries like France, nearly 150%. In North America, nearly 100%. This, after the events of October 7th, should tell you how real the existential threat feels for many Jews. allisrael.com/more-significa…

Of course we are seeing this play out in city streets, university campuses, high school, etc, where synagogues are defaced, shot at, Jewish schools and events picketed, red paint thrown on Jewish homes, residences attacked, so on and so forth. All of this is known.

However, If 2% of the Jewish population makes Aliyah, Israel will absorb nearly 200,000 new citizens. That’s a population increase in Israel of ~2.2%. With an already diminished supply of housing in likely sought after destinations, prices will increase further.

This is why it is imperative that Israel both quiet all borders AND also encourage/convince citizens to move north and south. There will probably be a restart of the Go North program and a further incentives Go South program.

A large reason why these programs are relevant is because of the very real threat to Jews abroad. North American Communities are requiring many of the measures that European and South American Jews have needed over the last decade.

Often, North American Jewish trends in antisemitism run 5-10 years behind European ones. It is a sad reality but a reality nonetheless, and if it does continue, which seemingly it will, I expect Aliyah trends to follow. ajc.org/news/antisemit…

Thus, for Israel and the Jewish diaspora’s long term security, a ceasefire is not an option. Hamas must be overthrown from the Strip irrespective of the survival of the ideology. The physical manifestation of it and the existential threat it poses to Israel must be eliminated.

Then, Israel must deal with very real internal issues that it faces regarding cost of living, supply and demand, and utilization of the habitability of the nation itself. For the sake of the Israeli economy, it is absolutely necessary.

Lastly, heads will have to roll politically. A commission of inquiry will be required for the people to ever trust again. Things will have to change. This change and the independence of such a commission to report is how faith in institutions will be rebuilt.

Without this faith, Israel leaves itself vulnerable in the long term to strife from within. It must deal with these issues before the next great wave of Aliyah comes due to the existential threat to diaspora communities. This wave is coming, fast.