⭐ Time Series is an essential skill in Data Science.
You don't know where to start?
Here you have a roadmap for you to start on the right foot!
Have a look 👇 🧵
1️⃣ Statistical Models:
• ARIMA: Handles trend and seasonality with autoregressive, moving average components.
• ETS: Exponential smoothing models capturing error, trend, and seasonality for forecasting time series data.
2️⃣ Decomposition Models:
• STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS): Robust decomposition method emphasizing local patterns.
• Prophet: Intuitive model accommodating holidays and special events for accurate time series forecasting.
3️⃣ ML Models:
• Random Forest: Ensemble method leveraging decision trees for robust predictions.
• XGBoost: algorithm with regularization for improved accuracy and efficiency.
• SVM: Non-linear model for time series forecasting, excelling in high-dimensional spaces.
4️⃣ Neural Network Methods:
• LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory): RNNs capturing long-range dependencies.
• GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit): RNN variant balancing model complexity and efficiency.
• CNN (Convolutional Neural Network): Extracts temporal features through convolution.
5️⃣ Advanced Models:
• Gaussian Processes: Probabilistic model capturing uncertainty.
• TCN (Temporal Convolutional Network): Leverages convolutional layers for parallelized temporal modeling.
• Transformers: Attention-based architecture handling sequences with global context.
Being aware of these models will allow you to start your path to mastering Time Series Analysis and Forecasting!
But Time Series is not just about models... The processing and evaluation stages are critical here!
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ARIMA models are essential in Time Series forecasting.
You can add multiple components to make them fit your particular data:
go from a basic AR model to a complex SARIMAX model! 🧵 👇
🔴 S (Seasonal):
• Represents recurring patterns or variations at fixed intervals in time series data.
• When to consider: when there are predictable, repetitive cycles, such as monthly or yearly patterns.
🟢 AR (Auto-Regressive):
• Reflects the relationship between the current observation and its past values at lag intervals.
• When to consider: when there's a correlation between the current and past observations, indicating temporal dependence.
ARIMA is really useful for time series forecasting, however you can only forecast 1 variable at a time...
VAR (Vector AutoRegression) solves this problem!
Discover more 🧵 👇
▶️ VAR handles multiple interdependent time series.
It's like a network where each series is forecasted based on its own history and the history of others, revealing the interconnected nature of variables.
▶️ ARIMA is tailored for individual series, adept at capturing and predicting patterns when data shows trends or seasonality.
It's the go-to model for detailed single-variable forecasting.