David Andrés 🤖📈🐍 Profile picture
Dec 21 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
⭐ Time Series is an essential skill in Data Science.

You don't know where to start?
Here you have a roadmap for you to start on the right foot!

Have a look 👇 🧵 Image
1️⃣ Statistical Models:

• ARIMA: Handles trend and seasonality with autoregressive, moving average components.
• ETS: Exponential smoothing models capturing error, trend, and seasonality for forecasting time series data.
2️⃣ Decomposition Models:

• STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS): Robust decomposition method emphasizing local patterns.
• Prophet: Intuitive model accommodating holidays and special events for accurate time series forecasting.
3️⃣ ML Models:

• Random Forest: Ensemble method leveraging decision trees for robust predictions.
• XGBoost: algorithm with regularization for improved accuracy and efficiency.
• SVM: Non-linear model for time series forecasting, excelling in high-dimensional spaces.
4️⃣ Neural Network Methods:

• LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory): RNNs capturing long-range dependencies.
• GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit): RNN variant balancing model complexity and efficiency.
• CNN (Convolutional Neural Network): Extracts temporal features through convolution.
5️⃣ Advanced Models:

• Gaussian Processes: Probabilistic model capturing uncertainty.
• TCN (Temporal Convolutional Network): Leverages convolutional layers for parallelized temporal modeling.
• Transformers: Attention-based architecture handling sequences with global context.
Being aware of these models will allow you to start your path to mastering Time Series Analysis and Forecasting!

But Time Series is not just about models... The processing and evaluation stages are critical here!
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More from @daansan_ml

Dec 19
🚨NEVER split your data randomly!

At least when working with Time Series data...

Learn here what are the dangers of doing so 🧵 👇 Image
1️⃣ Temporal Leakage:

• Issue: Random splits may cause temporal leakage, using future info in training. This leads to overly optimistic performance evaluation.

• Consequence: Model learns unrealistic patterns, impacting real-world forecasting accuracy.
2️⃣ Violation of Temporal Structure:

• Issue: Random splits break time series structure, with training set including future data. Model predicts past using future information.

• Consequence: Fails to capture time-dependent patterns critical for accurate forecasting.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 16
Make sure your model is considering all your data features equally!

Scaling can be your life saver!

Learn how to do it when you have normally distributed features 🧵👇 Image
Scaling is a critical aspect when working with normally distributed data.

It goes beyond a mere step, playing a vital role in ensuring accurate and unbiased analysis.
Algorithms like SVM and k-means are influenced by data scale.

Scaling becomes crucial to prevent certain features from dominating the process due to their varying magnitudes.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 15
Is your data normal? 🤔

What I meant is if your data follows a normal distribution...

Discover this elegant distribution 🧵👇 Image
A normal distribution, also known as a Gaussian distribution, is the most typical distribution you'll find in your days features.

It's characterized by several key properties that give it a distinctive bell curve shape.
▶️Symmetry is a fundamental feature of the normal distribution.

The distribution is symmetric around its mean, making the left and right sides mirror images of each other.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 13
Build an optimal ARIMA model efficiently.

That's what you can achieve with the Box-Jenkins method.

From raw data to a production-ready model step-by-step 🧵👇 Image
It consists of 3 steps:

1️⃣ Identification
2️⃣ Estimation
3️⃣ Model diagnostics

It will allow us to fit an ARIMA-like model to our data efficiently 👈
1️⃣ Identification:

In this step, we explore and characterize the data to find some form of it that is appropriate to ARIMA modeling.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 12
ARIMA models are essential in Time Series forecasting.

You can add multiple components to make them fit your particular data:

go from a basic AR model to a complex SARIMAX model! 🧵 👇 Image
🔴 S (Seasonal):

• Represents recurring patterns or variations at fixed intervals in time series data.
• When to consider: when there are predictable, repetitive cycles, such as monthly or yearly patterns.
🟢 AR (Auto-Regressive):

• Reflects the relationship between the current observation and its past values at lag intervals.
• When to consider: when there's a correlation between the current and past observations, indicating temporal dependence.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 11
ARIMA is really useful for time series forecasting, however you can only forecast 1 variable at a time...

VAR (Vector AutoRegression) solves this problem!

Discover more 🧵 👇 Image
▶️ VAR handles multiple interdependent time series.

It's like a network where each series is forecasted based on its own history and the history of others, revealing the interconnected nature of variables.
▶️ ARIMA is tailored for individual series, adept at capturing and predicting patterns when data shows trends or seasonality.

It's the go-to model for detailed single-variable forecasting.
Read 7 tweets

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