🧵1/ @ChrisLuxonMP has repeatedly argued that reducing retailer numbers (a measure supported by 68% of the public & opposed by 22% in a recent poll) as part of the smokefree laws his government intends to repeal will result in increased ram raids. healthcoalition.org.nz/wp-content/upl…
2/ @DrShaneReti quizzed on 'RNZ Checkpoint' (4 mins approx) conceded he had no evidence ram raids would increase other than 'concerns' from retailers (who have a strong commercial interest to oppose this measure to maintain profits from selling tobacco). rnz.co.nz/national/progr…
3/ So if there is no evidence, is it logical ram raids will increase? First, what are the trends? According to Police reports ram raids grew markedly to mid 2022, & then steadily decreased, perhaps due to enhanced security measures? So an increase is unlikely on current trends. 
4/ A Police Scanning report on 283 ram raids from Nov 2020-Oct 2021 found cigarettes & tobacco were targeted in 24% of ram raids, though they were only obtained in 14%. Cash was the most frequently stolen item. So in over 3/4s of ram raids tobacco was neither stolen nor targeted.
5/ However, if the smokefree legislation is implemented as planned there are very good reasons to think that ram raids and other retail crime to steal tobacco products would decrease. Why is that?
6/ First, collectively the measures, particularly denicotinisation & reduction in retailer numbers, are likely to prompt many people who smoke to quit. So the size of the tobacco market will shrink. Logically, the market & demand for stolen tobacco products will also decrease.
7/ Second, retailers have to apply to be one of 600 selling tobacco products. A criteria they must satisfy is v strong security. So retailers will have high security stds, making them less easy targets for ram raids than the current 6000, many of which have minimal security.
8/ Third. From Apr 1 2025, the only products stocked by retailers will be denicotinised cigarettes. These are much less appealing & satisfying. Hence they will be v little demand for them & if stolen will be difficult to sell. They will not be an attractive product to criminals.
9/ So, govt's excuse that repealing retailer reductions will increase ram raids has no evidence, is based on concerns from retailers who have a strong commercial interest to oppose this measure, & logically will result in reduced not increased tobacco-related retail crime.
10/ This is all summarised nicely in this Health Coalition Aotearoa graphicI. Information on how to take action here. Ends. healthcoalition.org.nz/health-issues/…
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