Belgium are also seeing another big spike according to their Covid wastewater surveillance, albeit not as extreme (yet) as the waves being experienced in the Netherlands, Austria and Germany.
I think perhaps you’re starting to see the trend by now.
Another huge spike in the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater signal (purple line) which, in some areas, is the highest it’s EVER been since the start of the pandemic.
Since September, there has been a steady and sustained rise in the SARS-CoV-2 viral load in their wastewater surveillance, once again reaching levels that are as high, if not higher, than the previous record high.
@michael_hoerger has been keeping a close eye on the data and predicts that this has the potential to be the 2nd largest COVID surge of all-time in the U.S.
So that concludes our whistlestop tour of the Covid wastewater surveillance in Europe (& beyond).
Two key questions arise from my research:
1️⃣ Given that practically every developed nation in the world is conducting Covid wastewater surveillance, why did England stop theirs?
As explained in this briefing note for SAGE back in Nov 2020, “wastewater surveillance is a reliable, timely & cost-effective method” of keeping track of Covid prevalence in the community.
So why was the budget for wastewater monitoring axed in England?
2️⃣ My second question is, given the huge surges in Covid prevalence across Europe, when are our government going to take action to reduce transmission here?
The WHO, BMA & RCN have called for improved infection control in health facilities - this would be a good place to start.
Millions of Covid vaccine doses have been stockpiled for a potential “surge” campaign this Winter.
Perhaps now would be a good time to release those vaccine doses to protect people in the coming weeks, rather than just leaving them until they expire & need to be destroyed?
Perhaps the gov could also consider bringing back free Covid tests.
In the US 🇺🇸, free Covid tests can be ordered by all households and are sent out by mail:
Here in England 🏴, tests are no longer free for most people. A pack of 6 tests costs ~£10. axios.com/2023/09/20/cov…
Another thing on my wishlist would be for some decent public health messaging, advising people in England to wear high quality masks (FFP2/3) in public indoor spaces and crowded places…
…like this recent public health campaign from New York. 👇🏻
There will be a huge amount of inter-generational mixing taking place over the next few days, so a public health message reminding people of the importance of VENTILATION could also make a huge difference right now.
Perhaps they could even re-release this video from 2 years ago?
Schools have broken up for the Christmas holidays now - but, by the time they return in a few weeks, Covid prevalence will be almost certainly be far higher.
We desperately need mitigation measures to reduce transmission - especially via improved ventilation & air filtration.
🧵The first official release of the ONS Winter Covid Infection Survey just dropped!
📍Covid prevalence in England & Scotland MORE THAN DOUBLED over 2 weeks, from 1.8% (on 29 Nov) to 4.2% (on 13 Dec).
📍Prevalence (as of 13 Dec) was equivalent to 2.5m people infected or 1 in 24.
It’s worth bearing in mind that the trend shows that rates have been rising fast in recent weeks and this latest data was from a full week ago so prevalence is almost certainly much higher right now…
…just in time for Christmas gatherings. 🎄
Estimated prevalence (🏴🏴) is highest in the young adult age-group, 18-44 years.
Maria Van Kerkhove from the WHO then followed up this announcement with a reminder that universal masking in health facilities is NOT actually a new WHO recommendation.
This has been their standard recommendation for years.
I just saw a neighbour who was walking past my house with her youngest daughter after dropping her eldest off at school.
She waved at me. 👋🏻
She knows how cautious we are about Covid so she immediately said:
“We’re both sick so I’ll keep my distance!”
1/
She really didn’t sound well at all and her daughter had a nasty deep chesty cough.
Thankfully she was a good distance away stood on the pavement whilst I was at my front door with the front garden & driveway between us (plus the wind was in my favour, blowing towards her).
2/
We had a brief chat (from a distance) about plans for Xmas etc.
She said she hoped both she and her daughter would be recovered in time for Christmas and explained her daughter had already had a few days off school but wasn’t showing any signs of recovery yet.
3/