Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
@TimInHonolulu
Dec 24 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1. Russia's intel site Rybar reports Ukraine now has F-16s. The reporting makes it sound like good news for Russia that can now destroy them. Reports of their arrival with reports Putin wants to talk are unlikely coincidental. For months Ukraine had to just hold until they had
2. the means to establish air superiority over their territory. A Patriot battery taking out three Su-34s near Kherson and now Russian pilots have to fear being stalked by a superior US fighter that has overmatch capability in air combat and can carry US ordinance like
3. JDAMs and HARMs that can be used with all their precision capabilities. Once Ukraine can operate F-16s free of SAMS via HARMS and only the most intrepid Russian fighter pilots dare venture into Ukraine, no Russia positions in Ukraine will be safe. From a trench war the battle
4. recently moved to combined arms capabilities and soon shock and awe is coming. Russia simply has no answer for it. Targets like Russian rail and bridges will be vulnerable to attack so Russian lines can be severed and like a snake with no head eventually cease to be a threat.
5. First the sky is filled with MALDS overwhelming Russian search radars with dozens of targets, most just clever drones that Russian radars see as F-16s. Then the operators turn on the targeting radars and are instantly hit with a harm from one of the wild weasels hiding
6. amid the MALDs. Russian SAM operators can either keep their radars off or be hit. Once they are all destroyed then only Russian fighter jets remain to face the F-16 and Patriots. And when the survivors decide to run for it the air above 15k feet will be safe to prowl and
7. drop massive precise JDAMs on the Russian command centers and fuel and ammo depos. All forward helicopter bases will be destroyed. Russian forces will have two choices: run or wait for the angel of death. Winter is not coming for the Orcs. It's here.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Tim Hogan 浩勤

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Dec 24
1. I've seen a lot of comments about whether the DC Court of Appeals will move with due haste to decide the Trump immunity appeal. And though my trips to the federal appeals court were only occasional I can't imagine having an answering brief due in a week or a reply in
2. two days but that's what the court ordered including Trump filing his opening brief two days before Christmas on a Saturday. If that isn't haste I don't know what is. I think they're going to flush this one down the crapper and SCOTUS will simply say "stay and cert denied."
3. I don't see any place in this brief where Trump defines "official acts." It appears he believes anything he does to advance his power as president is an official act.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Dec 23
1. After Iranian proxy Houthis' attacks have began to harm the struggling Chinese economy, the phone rings for the fist time in a long time at the Pentagon and the PLA wants to talk. My guess is China will want to end this threat but also prevent a US headed coalition to Image
2. take control of the Bab al-Mando strait and perhaps even the Yemeni coast. At some point we have to acknowledge that Russia is no longer the second most-powerful force and that the Middle Kingdom is not going away. The Chinese Central Military Commission also has to come
3. to terms with the fact that Taiwan isn't going to roll over without a fight and that our one China policy never conceded Taiwan. So I'm guessing the delay in action against the Houthis is due to haggling with Beijing over the Chinese position. I've always believed
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Dec 22
1. I've seen reports by attorneys who think that the $148,000,000 judgment against Rudy Giuliani is exempted from discharge. It was a default judgment and that means it was not on the merits and thus not entitled to collateral estoppel. Just like Alex Jones' judgment.
2. The case will have to be re-tried in a Bankruptcy court adversary proceeding under 11 USC 523(a)(6) and the plaintiffs have to move promptly or be forever barred. The money judgment is an unsecured debt and will likely be paid nothing or a few cents on the dollar
3. from his current assets if Rudy owes taxes and spousal support obligations. His major risks come from hiding assets or not cooperating in the process. The former could create criminal exposure and the latter put a trustee in charge of his case.
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Dec 20
1. Link to the DC Court website order issued by Chief Judge Boasberg regarding Scott Perry's phone. This is apparently the decision post-remand by the three judge panel that allowed much of the Perry material to be withheld pending further review.
dcd.uscourts.gov/sites/dcd/file…
2. Here is the case caption for the instant order. Image
3. And here is the opinion in the DC Cir where the court remanded to the district court for further review. Same case. A secured communications act proceeding that tells me Perry had his phone data on a could server. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Dec 17
1. I think it is quite likely that the @HouseGOP MAGA are coordinating their obstruction with a Russian offensive in Ukraine. I make this assessment based on the level of desperate human wave attacks that Russia has begun deploying in the Donetsk region.
2. Defeated forces often seek one last battle to try to turn the tide. Germans tried in 1944 in the Arden, Japan's operation Sho at Leyte and the Tete offensive are notable. The only one that worked was Tete because US media & Congress fell for it. It's what I fear is happening.
3. Consistent with Hitler's Arden/Battle of the Bulge plan that helped delay the German surrender, Russia has begun shelling along a wide front including Chernihiv in the north, Kupyansk in the northeast and Bahkmut, Avdiivka and Zaporizhia in the east.
Read 7 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Dec 17
1. My analysis is holding that the IDF have failed to maintain a competent force for the kind of fighting needed to remove Hamas without engaging in total war campaign that kills civilians and destroys infrastructure. IDF use of undisciplined forces in the occupied West Bank has
2. likely enabled the extremists who are shooting first and killing hostages in Gaza. The key is to replace poorly trained reservists with front-line professionals with proper training. This may expose waste of US financial recourses not put to good use preparing Israel for this
3. fight and that may have simply been used as subsidy for other things unrelated to the mission. Possible Netanyahu family corruption would be the first place I would examine. Netanyahu may not just cost Israelis their lives. The longer he stays in power
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(