Thread by @gaza_report

Would you like to understand a bit more about Yahya alSanwar's strategy to survive the Israeli invasion and declare his personal victory?

Then please consider the following analysis thread:

1. To understand this strategy, you must first consider the battlefield conditions and how alSanwar has personally position himself at this stage of Al Aqsa Floods war, and which resources he has provided himself to survive.

2. When the Israelis announced their invasion plans for the North of Gaza after October 7th, alSanwar and several of the leadership left Gaza City to Khan Younis. He moved very secretly and stowed himself in one of the aid vehicles to avoid being targeted by the Israelis.

3. Since, alSanwar and the trusted war leadership live in the Khan Younis Brigade's command tunnels (in each governorate of Gaza there is one particularly deep, multilayered structure just for the leadership). Other Hamas political seniors were not invited, he does not trust them

4. In the underground positions, alSanwar is rumoured to have enabled himself with many defenses. It includes huddling some of the Israeli captives around him at all times, while also ensuring the presence of the alQassam martyrdom units to detonate against penetrating soldiers

5. During the ceasefire, it occurred to alSanwar that he had made a mistake when he released the Israelis would resume fighting. He became more careful and stopped his movements and all communications with the outside via his different communications available to him

6. With this positioning in mind, how will alSanwar claim his victory over the Israelis, who invade Khan Younis after the ceasefire ?

7. The key is that alSanwar believes now the Israeli cabinet made moves which put time on his side.

Firstly, they enabled enough fuel to enter Gaza to power the tunnel network infrastructure, even air venting.

Second, the Israelis begin infighting over their longer strategy.

8. As such, alSanwar strategizes to prolong the fighting above ground to force the main Israeli forces to leave Gaza, without installing anyone to replace his regime.

9. AlSanwar is not new to such conditions. In Israeli jails he obsessed over understanding the mentality of the Israelis to understand their nerve points.

Now underground, he continues to obsess, and is rumoured to make his decisions based on the remarks of Israeli media.

10. AlSanwar sees how the Israelis are particularly sensitive to each loss of one of their soldiers in battle, and he believes, via reports from his operative, that he can bleed the Israeli army and force them out before they identify his actual position.

11. This is the reason why AlSanwar rejected and continues to reject any new ceasefire arrangement, as he believes he does not need to.

12. As his backup, alSanwar believes that if the Israelis find his location, he will have time to restrategize. The Israelis Will need to carefully negotiate his steel doors, booby trapped entrances, and hidden tunnel floors before they can reach his location.

13. And as a final resort, alSanwar knows he has the Israeli captives, which if necessary, can grant him escape to another country if necessary, according to his thinking.

Thank you for your consideration of the analysis.

Supporting evidence and arguments for this analysis will gradually be added to the thread in forms of quote posts.