This table shows the #COVID risk based on group size as the ball drops on New Year's Eve/Day in the U.S. Please share widely. Now is the time to act.
5 reasons:
1) The surge is coming. It will arrive around Jan 10 with about 2 million infections per day. There's a sense of urgency brewing.
2) Holiday gatherings were emotional. A lot of people gathered for recent holidays to see family. It's emotional. People want to see each other, even if it felt a bit guilty doing so. Many people know they can/should be more cautious going forward, even if they made it out unscathed.
3) New Year's is not emotional. For many people, New Year's is not a sentimental holiday. It's one people can skip. It's also for a time to reflect on one's behavior and grow. This is a time people can think more calmly, coolly, and long-term.
4) It's not just the spike -- it's the tail. Transmission is heating up, fast. Many people focus on the peak. However, my models suggest that about 60% of the surge's transmission actually occurs post-peak.
5) It's a great time to get vaccinated. For the vast majority who haven't gotten around to getting the updated vax, there is still time. It's not too late, given the transmission peak date and tail. A tremendous amount of societal harm can be reduced for those getting vaccinated ASAP.
5 reasons:
1) The surge is coming. It will arrive around Jan 10 with about 2 million infections per day. There's a sense of urgency brewing.
2) Holiday gatherings were emotional. A lot of people gathered for recent holidays to see family. It's emotional. People want to see each other, even if it felt a bit guilty doing so. Many people know they can/should be more cautious going forward, even if they made it out unscathed.
3) New Year's is not emotional. For many people, New Year's is not a sentimental holiday. It's one people can skip. It's also for a time to reflect on one's behavior and grow. This is a time people can think more calmly, coolly, and long-term.
4) It's not just the spike -- it's the tail. Transmission is heating up, fast. Many people focus on the peak. However, my models suggest that about 60% of the surge's transmission actually occurs post-peak.
5) It's a great time to get vaccinated. For the vast majority who haven't gotten around to getting the updated vax, there is still time. It's not too late, given the transmission peak date and tail. A tremendous amount of societal harm can be reduced for those getting vaccinated ASAP.
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