Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 29 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
NEW: The New York Times published an op-ed by a member of its editorial board calling for Ukraine to engage in negotiations with and cede territory to Russia after reports emerged that Putin is using backchannels and intermediaries to signal his interest in a ceasefire.

The op-ed largely ignores near-constant Kremlin public signaling of Russia’s continued maximalist goals in Ukraine. 🧵(1/9)Image
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2/ The op-ed argues that Ukraine should not “pass up” this opportunity to possibly achieve a ceasefire despite the fact that there are multiple reasons to believe that Putin’s pro-ceasefire signaling may not be sincere...
3/ ...such as Putin’s demonstrated untrustworthiness and the possibility that he may intend to use time spent on prolonged negotiations to his political and military benefit.
4/ The piece argues that Ukraine does not need to regain all its territory to emerge victorious from the war, but that a “strong, independent, prosperous, and secure” Western-oriented Ukraine is also a victory.
5/ The piece appeals to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to engage in ceasefire negotiations and not see negotiations as a defeat, implicitly blaming Zelensky – not Putin – for the absence of serious negotiations.
6/ The op-ed’s argument implicitly relies on the assumption that Putin’s reported backchannel communications more accurately reflect Putin’s thoughts and desires than his – and other Kremlin officials’ – constant public rhetoric. Image
7/ Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a number of statements on December 28 that also run contrary to the reported backchannel messaging on which the @nytimes op-ed and similar arguments rely. Image
8/ The op-ed’s focus on the need for Ukraine to cede its land, finally, obscures the horrors that the Russian occupation is inflicting on the Ukrainian people living on that land. Image
9/Read tonight's campaign assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar122823
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More from @TheStudyofWar

Dec 31
Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' may escalate further against US forces in the region around the four-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2024.

Axis of Resistance Updates: 🧵(1/7)
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2/ Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani ordered the opening of Celebration Square in Baghdad’s Green Zone for New Year’s Eve.
3/ Sudani ordered that the gates of the Green Zone, where the US Embassy and other government and highly sensitive facilities are located, remain open for an unspecified amount of time after midnight on December 31.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 31
Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City. Israeli forces continued executing tasks consistent with holding operations in some areas of Gaza City.

Latest Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats: 🧵(1/6) Image
2/ Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Beit Lahiya and Sheikh Radwan in the northern Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias are launching attacks from civilian-populated areas of al Bureij as Israeli forces advance clearing operations in the Central Governorate.
3/ Palestinian militias claimed several attacks on Israeli forces north and east of al Bureij, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that the IDF appears to be isolating Hamas’ Bureij Battalion and other Palestinian militias there before reducing them.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 30
Russia will continue to conduct strikes against Ukraine at scale in an effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort against Russia. 🧵(1/5)
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2/ Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces primarily struck residential buildings, transportation infrastructure, and industrial facilities, although this is not a comprehensive list of the Russian target set
3/ Ukraine has pursued a concerted effort to expand its defense industrial base (DIB) in the past year, and the reported Russian strikes against industrial facilities likely mean to prevent Ukraine from developing key capacities to sustain operations for a longer war effort.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 30
NEW: Russian forces conducted the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion on the morning of December 29. (1/3)


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2/ Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched 36 Shahed drones and over 120 missiles at industrial and military facilities and critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa cities and Sumy, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv oblasts.
3/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29, 2023: isw.pub/UkrWar122923
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Read 6 tweets
Dec 28
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6, 2023, reportedly postponed a Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro River that was likely intended to support Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

More key takeaways 🧵(1/9)
2/ Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi described continued Ukrainian battlefield challenges and requirements for future territorial advances during an interview with BBC published on December 27.
3/ Ukrainian officials highlighted the Ukrainian defense industrial base’s (DIB) increased production in 2023 and offered projections of Ukraine’s domestic drone production capabilities on December 27.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 27
NEW: Hamas and other Palestinian militias are exploiting the Israeli hostages they are holding to ensure that Hamas and its partners are involved in any negotiations about the future of the Gaza Strip.

Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/12)


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2/ Hamas fighters attacked Israeli forces conducting holding operations in Beit Hanoun. CTP-ISW assessed on December 20 that the IDF transitioned to a hold phase in Beit Hanoun.
3/ Hamas and its militia allies continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Jabalia. The IDF reported that one of Hamas’ battalions used Indonesian Hospital in Jabalia as a headquarters.
Read 12 tweets

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