Otavio (Tavi) Costa Profile picture
Dec 30, 2023 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
This will likely become one of the most important charts for the upcoming new year.

Emerging market currencies, after a prolonged decline, are on the brink of a significant breakout, indicating the potential start of a more favorable era for these economies, particularly the ones that are rich in natural resources.

The performance of emerging markets relative to developed economies follows long-term cycles, often tied to the commodities market.

We believe this is the time to be deploying capital in EM related assets.

Interestingly, note that the commodities-rich Brazilian equities are already leading this trend.Image

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More from @TaviCosta

Dec 9
Today, a new set of structural pressures has brought the US dollar to a critical juncture. 
 
Thread 👇👇👇 Image
No major economy in the world today is pursuing such an aggressively expansionary fiscal policy while shouldering an unsustainable cost of debt service. Image
This is a stark reflection of why the dollar has become increasingly vulnerable in the current macro landscape, shedding its long-held reputation as the “cleanest dirty shirt.”
Read 29 tweets
Jul 27
In our view, we stand on the cusp of a major transformation in the FX markets:
 
The likelihood of significant depreciation of the US dollar relative to other currencies over the next several years.
 
Allow us to elaborate.

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The Fed's current interest rate policy is entirely misaligned with the magnitude of the debt problem, putting the US economy in a precarious situation.
 
This issue is notably more severe compared to other developed countries. Image
As shown in the prior chart:

According to OECD, by next year the US will face by far the highest cost for servicing its debt among all democratic developed market economies it tracks by next year.
Read 28 tweets
Jul 13
We are currently experiencing a multitude of technical breakouts in the precious metals industry.

I can't recall a time when I've seen so many historical moves in this space.

Here are my 6 favorite chart setups.

1) Gold and silver miners to gold ratio Image
2) Junior miners to gold ratio also breaking out from a 14-year downward trend Image
3) The GDX ETF, or the most liquid gold mining stocks ETF, also poked its head out of a 14-year resistance Image
Read 8 tweets
May 10
The most critical question facing investors in the precious metals sector today:

If this truly marks the inception of a new secular bull cycle for gold, why are junior miners significantly lagging?

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In my opinion, the answer can be distilled into 2 primary points:

1) This is a common phenomenon, and the lag is your friend.

Initially, funds typically gravitate towards larger and more liquid companies, before investors begin seeking higher returns in riskier market segments
2) Following numerous failed attempts, investors are understandably disillusioned with trying to time the market bottom and are now understandably skeptical about the prospects of this industry.
Read 17 tweets
Jan 14
This chart is truly revealing.

The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.

It's time to buy low & sell high.

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While our concerns are fueled by the pervasive speculation in the US stock market, there also exists a parallel narrative where long-neglected economies present themselves with exceptional value and promising growth opportunities.
Utilizing Warren Buffett’s preferred valuation indicator, it becomes unmistakable that US stocks not only sit at historically expensive levels but also are the most overvalued among 28 of the world’s largest economies.
Read 33 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
Live shots of the "new bull market"

1/ Image
2/ Image
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets

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