This will likely become one of the most important charts for the upcoming new year.
Emerging market currencies, after a prolonged decline, are on the brink of a significant breakout, indicating the potential start of a more favorable era for these economies, particularly the ones that are rich in natural resources.
The performance of emerging markets relative to developed economies follows long-term cycles, often tied to the commodities market.
We believe this is the time to be deploying capital in EM related assets.
Interestingly, note that the commodities-rich Brazilian equities are already leading this trend.
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Today, a new set of structural pressures has brought the US dollar to a critical juncture.
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No major economy in the world today is pursuing such an aggressively expansionary fiscal policy while shouldering an unsustainable cost of debt service.
This is a stark reflection of why the dollar has become increasingly vulnerable in the current macro landscape, shedding its long-held reputation as the “cleanest dirty shirt.”
In our view, we stand on the cusp of a major transformation in the FX markets:
The likelihood of significant depreciation of the US dollar relative to other currencies over the next several years.
Allow us to elaborate.
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The Fed's current interest rate policy is entirely misaligned with the magnitude of the debt problem, putting the US economy in a precarious situation.
This issue is notably more severe compared to other developed countries.
As shown in the prior chart:
According to OECD, by next year the US will face by far the highest cost for servicing its debt among all democratic developed market economies it tracks by next year.
The most critical question facing investors in the precious metals sector today:
If this truly marks the inception of a new secular bull cycle for gold, why are junior miners significantly lagging?
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In my opinion, the answer can be distilled into 2 primary points:
1) This is a common phenomenon, and the lag is your friend.
Initially, funds typically gravitate towards larger and more liquid companies, before investors begin seeking higher returns in riskier market segments
2) Following numerous failed attempts, investors are understandably disillusioned with trying to time the market bottom and are now understandably skeptical about the prospects of this industry.
The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.
It's time to buy low & sell high.
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While our concerns are fueled by the pervasive speculation in the US stock market, there also exists a parallel narrative where long-neglected economies present themselves with exceptional value and promising growth opportunities.
Utilizing Warren Buffett’s preferred valuation indicator, it becomes unmistakable that US stocks not only sit at historically expensive levels but also are the most overvalued among 28 of the world’s largest economies.