Thread by @Mylovanov

In 2023, Ukraine called Russia's bluff by breaking maritime blockage after Russia exited the Grain Deal.

The implications are significant:

1. Once again, Ukraine defied expectations and critics 1/

2. It called out Russia's attempt to use food as a weapon
3. It took some risky military actions against certain pressure from the allies

Details of the story: 2/

Russia's withdrawal from the grain initiative in July 2023 led to an immediate escalation of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's ports, blocking maritime exports

Ukraine anticipated this scenario and devised a plan to break the blockade 3/

That plan has succeeded. As of December 30, 2023, 400 ships carrying almost 13 million tons of cargo have been sent to 24 countries via the grain export corridor since August 8. 4/

Agricultural products comprise 70% of exports. 430 ships were received by Ukrainian ports through the corridor for unloading. 5/

Operational Ukrainian ports in the corridor zone include Pivdennyi, Odesa, Chornomorsk, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi and Ust-Dunaysk.

Fully reopening the ports of Greater Odesa could increase Ukraine's annual GDP growth by 8%. 6/

Russia was dissatisfied with the plans to bypass the blockade. As of end of 2023, almost 180 port infrastructure facilities were fully or partially destroyed. 7/

However, Ukraine has been able to push the Black Fleet back into its bases and significantly decrease its capabilities. 8/

The British Defense Minister stated in late December that Ukraine destroyed 20% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet over the previous four months. Russia's dominance in the Black Sea is now in question. 9/

After Ukrainian attacks in August and September, Russia's Black Sea Fleet had to relocate ships and submarines, including missile carriers, from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. 10/

However, Ukraine has decided to move on Novorossiysk too. It was a high-stakes gamble that drew warnings from partners at all levels. The gamble succeeded. 11/

On August 3-4, Ukraine used a new SBU-developed "Mamai" suicide drone to strike Russia's Black Sea Fleet in its harbor in Novorossiysk, hitting the landing ship "Olenegorsky Gornyak. 12/

Economically, the Novorossiysk attacks imposed hundreds of millions in losses on Russia from increased insurance rates. But they also impacted oil exports, concerning Ukraine's partners. Ukraine received warnings from partners but persisted. 13/

This is because Novorossiysk is also a huge oil transshipment point. Through this port that oil giants from the United States export Kazakh oil. The "gray" export of Russian oil also takes place from there under the guise of other brands. So ... Western business interests 14/

The gamble paid off - Russia eased pressure after the strikes, allowing Ukraine to open its own temporary maritime corridor for grain exports on August 10 without Russia's agreement. 15/

But Russia continues to harass the maritime routes from Ukraine. One of Russia's latest tactics is the remote mining of the sea with KABs. Russian bombers drop KABs equipped with special sensors onto the shallowest maritime routes. They explode when a ship passes over them. 16/

On December 5th, a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile shot down a Russian Su-24M bomber near Zmiinyi Island that was engaged in such mining activities 17/

So, the battle to break the maritime blockade continues. Yet, the results have shown that Ukraine can defy and contain Russia, even if the Western allies are worried about their own interests and are not always happy with that. Russia understands force and this story proves it X

Sources:

https://x.com/OlKubrakov/status/1741065973937918153?s=20

pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1…
pravda.com.ua/news/2024/01/1…