Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Jan 2, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Whoa, the NEPA provisions tucked into the new "Clean Electricity & Transmission Acceleration Act" are like a wish list for greenmailers.

There's lots of good in the bill (⤵️), but the NEPA stuff is stunning. Come take a look.
🧵. 1/14.
1. The bill defines "enviro impact" to include not only enviro impacts, but also "aesthetic, historic, cultural, economic, social, or health" effects.

(Whereas CEQA is still about "physical environment"--even in the infamous Berkeley case.
)

/2
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2. The bill creates utterly open-ended authority for fed. agencies to demand a "community benefit agreement" as price of any permit for which an EIS was prepared.

This converts NEPA from procedural statute into grant of substantive reg / exaction authority.
/3 Image
In exercising the "community benefit agreement" authority, what is a federal agency supposed to consider?

Consideration #1 is the deepness of the permit-applicant's pocket. Seriously.
/4 Image
And in case the new, expansive definition of "enviro impact" wasn't clear enough, the bill adds that CBAs may be imposed to offset any *social or economic* (as well as enviro) impacts of the project.
/5 Image
In fact, the bill says an agency can impose a CBA not just to mitigate adverse effects of the project, but "to address legacy or historical harm" with, e.g., local-hire requirements.
/6 Image
3. The bill would also destroy the caselaw that limits scope of enviro review to scope of agency's regulatory discretion, not only via the CBA provision but also by expressly requiring analysis of effects "not within control of any federal agency."

/7 supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/…
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4. And the bill would send a torrent of federal dollars into the coffers of groups who'd exploit NEPA for labor or other side hustles.

- there's $3 billion of "community engagement" grants to arm nonprofits & others
/8 Image
- and there's a new statutory mandate that FERC reimburse NGO intervenors in regulatory proceedings (if intervenor affects the outcome)
/9 Image
5. And in case NEPA turned up to 11 isn't enough, there's also a new, judicially enforceable mandate for "community impact reports" if a project may affect an "environmental justice community."
/10


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6. There's also a wild provision that seems to prevent federal agencies from considering any project alternatives in an EIS unless (a) the alternative would have no adverse impact on any "overburdened community," or (b) it serves a compelling interest *in that community.*
/11 Image
"Overburdened communities" are defined, in turn, not as communities burdened by the project, or by legacy pollution, but by race, poverty, or language-minority status.

(CJ Roberts & Co. may find the race piece unconstitutional, but the rest would stand.)
/12 Image
The biggest shocker for me is that this bill has the backing of the old "New Democrats," not just the left wing of the Dem coalition.

I don't pretend to understand the coalitional politics, but, wow.
/13

seec.house.gov/media/press-re…
I should add that I know NEPA less well than CEQA. Maybe I'm misreading or misunderstanding something in the bill.
Let's hope better minds will find my errors.
@nicholas_bagley @dfarber @jadler1969 @AA_Mance @CarolineCecot @EnergyLawProf @AlecStapp @TDuncheon
/end
One more observation: the bill subtly nudges NEPA toward super-statute status by directing conflicts b/t NEPA "and any other provision of law" to be resolved in favor of NEPA. Image
@drvolts, @robinsonmeyer: I'd love to hear your thoughts on the CETAA draft that dropped last month. (Apologies if I missed your coverage.)

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More from @CSElmendorf

Sep 13
SB 79 Thread #1: Big Picture

In the fall of 2018, I first met @hanlonbt. I had recently posted "Beyond the Double Veto". He reached out & suggested we get coffee.

We argued about SB 827 (SB 79's oldest ancestor), which had died the previous winter.

1/24
I was skeptical.

I said, "Even if you manage to pass an SB 827 successor, it'll be like ADU law circa 1982. Local govs will destroy the projects w/ conditions of approval & CEQA."

He replied, "Have you seen what we did with the Housing Accountability Act?!"

/2
"Yeah," I answered, "your HAA reforms are great! Even so, they don't stop discretionary conditions of approval or CEQA. If I were in your shoes, I'd focus on strengthening the Housing Element Law. It's dumb in lots of ways, but it gets one essential thing right."

/3
Read 24 tweets
Sep 4
Um, it's not like Abundance supporters have been hiding the ball on the mass public's populism.

1/4 Image
E.g., here's what I, @ClaytonNall & @stan_okl found & reported on who voters blame for high housing prices (screenshot)

link:

/2 aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…Image
And here's what we found & reported on their beliefs, preferences, and prioritization of housing policies. (Rent control and property-tax control are the big winners. Plus sticking it Wall St. investors.)

/3


link: nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21
The sick irony:
- L.A. started out on right foot w/ its housing element
- then L.A. produced an *awful* rezoning program + faux analysis to implement it
- now L.A. is telling the Legislature, "don't pass SB 79 unless it exempts cities w/ approved housing elements"

1/6
This @TernerHousing post explains what L.A. did right initially, ternercenter.berkeley.edu/research-and-p….

The key move was to reasonably account for sites probability of development during the planning period & discount nominal site capacity accordingly.

x.com/CSElmendorf/st…

/2
But when it came to rezoning, L.A. ditched the p(dev) adjustments in favor of made-up funny numbers.

L.A. also jacked up IZ, did nothing about Measure ULA, & effectively banned redevelopment of apartments.

@California_HCD gave the city a pass.



/3
Read 7 tweets
Aug 15
Very pleased that my paper w/ @ClaytonNall & @stan_okl, "The Folk Economics of Housing," has been published in the excellent new JEP symposium on housing markets. ⤵️

🧵/10. Image
link:

The tl,dr is that housing supply skepticism--which we operationalize as the belief that a large, positive, exogenous regional supply shock would not reduce home prices / rents locally--is pervasive, distinctive to housing, but weakly held.

/2 aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…Image
People give more internally inconsistent answers, within and across surveys, to questions about the price effects of housing supply shocks than to questions about other economic shocks / beliefs.

/3 Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 25
Just read @vincent_rollet's incredible paper on effects of upzoning in NYC.

Wow, wow, wow!

If CA were a well-governed state, we'd be offering Meta-like pay to bring folks like Vincent into @California_HCD & @Cal_LCI.

🧵/16, with the highlights.
Vincent develops a parcel-level, gen-equilibrium model of development in NYC, accounting for parcel traits like size/value of existing uses, & estimating n'hood & endogenous amenities, wages, builder cost function, extensive & intensive margins of the redevelopment decision.

/2
He obtains results not only the effect of upzoning on housing-supply and prices, but also on the distribution of welfare gains/losses across the socioeconomic spectrum and as between current and future residents of NYC.

/3
Read 16 tweets
Jul 24
Here's the first of my two essays for @NiskanenCenter's "party of abundance" series. ⤵️

In the piece, @ProfSchleich & I argue that big-city YIMBYs should endeavor to forge a cross-issue, party-like faction & drive an urban quality of life agenda.

@GrowSF is the model.
🧵/24
The immediate response of many has been, "That's crazy! It's hard enough to win on housing."

/2

I get it. But hear us out. There are at least three good reasons for big-city YIMBYs to take on a wider range of issues.

/3
Read 25 tweets

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