Thread by @sumlenny

THREAD Some bullet points on Russia's missile attacks.
1) Stop talking about "it costed Russia $50,000,000" or smth like that. Most missiles have already been produced decades ago, their usage costs nothing. New missiles cost much less than their list price (which is either...

...export price, or official list price Russian MoD pays the producing company, which belongs to state, so this money is mostly virtual). Russia's costs for the attacks are still low, mostly reduced to maintenance costs, fuel costs, and salaries for the pilots, tech crews etc 2/x

2) Russia used Western reluctance to perfect its attacks. RU stockpiled missiles (the new ones), bought drones, tested different approaches vs. Ukraine's air defence (routes, waves, jamming, combinations, etc.) Now they use the stockpiles AND knowledge. They got time for that 3/x

3) With very low costs (see bulletpoint 1) for attacks, and time and de facto Western permission for months-long tests how to penetrate Ukraine's air defence, now Russia hopes to deplete Ukraine's AD missiles stockpiles, sending record numbers of aerial targets since a week. 4/x

4) Russia knows that all these tests of Ukraine's air defence, and terror raids vs. civilians will not result in any consequence for Russian military targets or infrastructure in Russia, not talking about bombing of Russian cities. Imaging Ukraine hit Moscow with 100 missiles 5/x

As no retaliation hitting Russia's sovereign territory happens, Russia sees the costs of its attacks excitingly low. The fighting takes place in Ukraine, even hits on Russian Navy in Crimea are in Ukraine. In the worst case for Russia it just gives destroyed areas to Ukraine 6/x

5) Now imagine what will happen when this war will be "frozen", or even when Ukraine returns its territory - but will not reach full demilitarisation of Russia. Russia will simply send a hundred of missiles on the heads of Ukrainians every week. Even if 100% intercepted 7/x

...it will steal several points of Ukraine's GDP p.a. for air defence, will slow down Ukraine's growth (no investments), will stop return of Ukrainian refugees from Europe, will steal years of human lives spent in fear. And NATO will do even less than now, as "it's not a war" 8/x

6) So the only feasible solution for this problem would be not only a militarily defeat of Russia including destruction of Russia's military infrastructure on Russia's sovereign territory. This would be only the first step. The second step will be demilitarisation of Russia. 9/x

But what is most important (as we know that demilitarised aggressors tend to rebuild their armies to attack again), the third step would be Ukraine's NATO membership, developing+producing enough of long-range weapons, and abandoning taboos on swift devastating strikes vs. enemies

Everyone who would like to blackmail us with threatening of war must know that we would not think twice before shooting down their warplanes which violate our airspace, or erase their military harbours, energy hubs, or airfields. Hotlines from the Cold War were good as much as BOTH sides wished to preserve peace. They do not work now, as Russia uses communication not to reduce risks of global war, but to fuel it, and to make it possible, in a sick hope to win it.