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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jan 3 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Key Takeaways:

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” will very likely continue their regional escalation against the US and Israel, despite Israel withdrawing some of its forces from the Gaza Strip. 🧵(1/9)
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2/ Israeli forces conducted a “surgical strike” targeting senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri in southern Beirut on January 2.
3/ Israeli forces raided a Hamas and PIJ command and control center in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood.

Israeli forces captured a Hamas compound in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City. Image
4/ Palestinian militias are attempting to defend against Israeli advances in Bureij in the central Gaza Strip.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israeli forces are “isolating” Khan Younis to find Hamas fighters underground.
5/ Israel rejected a Hamas-proposed, three-phase hostage-for-prisoner deal. The proposal is not compatible with Israeli war aims, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.

The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
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6/ Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in Jenin following demonstrations organized by Palestinian militia groups on January 1. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eight locations across the West Bank on January 2.
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7/ Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 1 and another eight attacks on January 2.
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8/ The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted eight drone and rocket attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria. The group also claimed an unspecified attack targeting Eilat in southern Israel.
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9/ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdul Salam in Tehran. isw.pub/IranUpdate0102…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 31
NEW: Western intelligence officials reportedly stated that North Korean troops are in an unspecified area in occupied Ukraine. 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ @CNN, citing two unspecified Western intelligence officials, reported on October 30 that a small number of North Korean personnel are in occupied Ukraine but did not specify their location — the first such confirmation from Western sources.
3/ The intelligence officials stated that they expect the number of North Korean personnel in Ukraine to grow as they complete training in Russia.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 29
MORE: Unspecified sources within the Israeli defense establishment reported that Israel’s attack destroyed all of Iran’s long-range surface-to-air missile batteries and long-range detection radars, leaving Iran with only domestically produced short-range defense batteries.

Western reporting has confirmed damage at a storage unit within the Abadan oil refinery in Khuzestan province and a TIECO oil and gas machinery factory in Tehran province, among others, following the IDF strikes. 🧵(1/4)Image
2/ Unspecified Iranian sources told Israeli media that Israel also targeted and breached Iranian radar systems in Syria before launching its attack on Iran. The sources noted that the radar screens in Iran’s defense systems “froze“ before the IDF strikes. CTP-ISW previously reported that the IDF likely targeted Iran’s early detection network in Syria and Iraq which would have given Iran advanced notice of the incoming Israeli attack.
3/ Constrained Russian manufacturing capacity for new ground-based air defense systems and Russia’s demand for these systems in Ukraine may limit Iran’s ability to acquire new S-300s in the near term. CTP-ISW previously reported that Israeli strikes in Iran have targeted four S-300 air defense systems in Iran. Israeli sources reported that Iran had only four S-300 batteries, suggesting that Iran does not have any functional S-300 batteries right now. The Russian-made S-300 is the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 28
NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) inflicted serious damage to the Iranian integrated air defense network during its strikes on Iran on October 25. 🧵(1/7)Image
2/ The IDF struck three or four S-300 sites, including one at the Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran.[2] Three unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times that the IDF strikes have caused major alarm among Iranian leaders.
3/ Some of the air defense sites that the IDF struck were protecting critical energy infrastructure in western and southwestern Iran. Western media confirmed that IDF struck air defense sites around the Abadan oil refinery, Bandar Imam Khomeini energy complex and port, and the Tang-eh Bijar gas field.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 28
Special Report: Possible Russian Gains in Georgia & Moldova 🧵1/7

The Kremlin continues to pursue its longstanding hybrid warfare efforts to regain effective control of the territories of the former Soviet Union even as it seeks to gain control of Ukraine through military force.Image
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2/ The Russian invasion of Ukraine is supporting Russian hybrid warfare efforts in former Soviet states, particularly Moldova and Georgia, as pro-Russian local political leaders and influencers benefit from the implicit threat of Russian aggression against their states.
3/ Moscow seeks to regain momentum in its efforts to reconsolidate control over the post-Soviet space through the ongoing elections in Moldova and Georgia and will seek to capitalize on successes in those elections to advance its objectives in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 27
🧵(1/11): Putin very likely assesses that calling another partial mobilization wave, or introducing general mobilization, will be too costly to his regime, and has therefore resorted to crypto-mobilization efforts that appear to be placing greater and greater strains on the Russian wartime economy.
2/ The Washington Post reported on October 27 that the Russian economy is "in danger of overheating," noting that Russia's excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries.
3/ The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia's labor force and production capacity are "almost exhausted."
Read 11 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Oct 26
Special Report: Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has likely won a simple majority in the Georgian parliamentary election held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results. Georgian Dream has adopted a very strongly pro-Russian platform. 🧵(1/4)Image
2/ A number of incidents have marred the elections suggesting a thus far undetermined magnitude of election fraud pending reports from election observers.

The election results are likely to lead to opposition mobilization and protests given initial reactions from opposition parties claiming that the elections were fraudulent.
3/ The Russian information space is already celebrating a Georgian Dream victory, further demonstrating that Georgian Dream is the Kremlin’s favored party in the Georgian parliamentary elections.

Special Report: isw.pub/GeorgiaOctober…Image
Read 4 tweets

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