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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jan 3, 2024 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Key Takeaways:

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” will very likely continue their regional escalation against the US and Israel, despite Israel withdrawing some of its forces from the Gaza Strip. 🧵(1/9)
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2/ Israeli forces conducted a “surgical strike” targeting senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri in southern Beirut on January 2.
3/ Israeli forces raided a Hamas and PIJ command and control center in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood.

Israeli forces captured a Hamas compound in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City. Image
4/ Palestinian militias are attempting to defend against Israeli advances in Bureij in the central Gaza Strip.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israeli forces are “isolating” Khan Younis to find Hamas fighters underground.
5/ Israel rejected a Hamas-proposed, three-phase hostage-for-prisoner deal. The proposal is not compatible with Israeli war aims, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.

The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
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6/ Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in Jenin following demonstrations organized by Palestinian militia groups on January 1. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eight locations across the West Bank on January 2.
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7/ Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 1 and another eight attacks on January 2.
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8/ The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted eight drone and rocket attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria. The group also claimed an unspecified attack targeting Eilat in southern Israel.
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9/ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdul Salam in Tehran. isw.pub/IranUpdate0102…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 24, 2024
NEW: The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) defended against Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attempts to recapture SDF-held ground on the west bank of the Euphrates River near the Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge.

Syria Key Takeaways 🧵(1/6):Image
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2/ Unspecified sources reportedly told Syria-based al Khabour News that the YPG threatened to cut off bread supplies to Hasakah if the people did not demonstrate in support of the group.
3/ HTS leader Ahmed al Shara may face resistance to the current moderate approach to governance from Salafi-Jihadi factions within the HTS-led coalition.
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 14, 2024
Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country. 🧵(1/8)

(📸: @Maxar) Image
Overview of the northern section of Russian Hmeimim Air Base on December 13, 2024. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Overview of the Russian naval base at Tartus on December 13, 2024. Source: Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
2/ Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 13 that an unspecified source familiar with the matter stated that Russia is currently negotiating with unspecified new Syrian "authorities" about maintaining Russia's military presence at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus. Image
3/ Maxar satellite imagery from Dec. 13 shows two Russian An-124 military transport aircraft preparing to load cargo while a Ka-52 helicopter and elements of an S-400 air defense system are likely undergoing preparations for transport at Hmeimim Air Base.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 14, 2024
NEW: The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.

Key Takeaways + Full Report ⬇️🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Blinken in the Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Syria with senior Turkish and Iraqi officials on December 12 and 13. Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on December 12 and 13, respectively, to try to persuade Turkey “not to press [its] advantage” against the Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
3/ Syrian Democratic Forces: The SDF is facing two perceived existential threats in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which almost certainly caused the SDF to deprioritize the counter-ISIS mission. SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi announced that the SDF plans to negotiate its role in a future Syrian government, likely to prevent further unrest within Arab populations and militias under the SDF.Image
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Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
.@Maxar collected new satellite imagery this morning (December 13th) of the two primary Russian military bases in Syria—Khmeimim airbase near Latakia and the port/naval base at Tartus. Details ⬇️🧵(1/4) Image
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2/ At Khmeimim, @Maxar imagery shows two An-124 heavy transport aircraft at the airfield—both with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load equipment/cargo. Image
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3/ Nearby, @Maxar has captured a Ka-52 attack helicopter being dismantled and likely prepared for transport while elements of an S-400 air defense unit similarly prepare to depart from its previous deployment site at the airbase. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024
NEW: Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.🧵(1/X)Image
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2/ Russian forces have advanced in western Novyi Trud and along the E50 highway south of Dachenske, narrowing the small pocket west of the E50 highway and south of the Novyi Trud-Dachenske line. This advance places Russian forces about 6km south of Pokrovsk. Image
3/ Russian forces will likely continue efforts to close the pocket between Novyi Trud and Dachenske in the coming days, as doing so will provide them a stronger position from which to assault Shevchenko (just northwest of Novyi Trud and southwest of Pokrovsk). Image
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024
🧵(1/8)

Sentinel-2 imagery from Dec. 10 collected by @kromark shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. x.com/kromark/status… x.com/TheStudyofWar/…Image
2/ @MT_Anderson identified 4 Russian ships within this radius as of Dec. 10—the Adm. Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Adm. Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, & the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.
3/ Satellite imagery from December 9 indicated that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were in the same holding pattern as they are as of December 10.
Read 8 tweets

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