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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jan 3 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Key Takeaways:

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” will very likely continue their regional escalation against the US and Israel, despite Israel withdrawing some of its forces from the Gaza Strip. 🧵(1/9)
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2/ Israeli forces conducted a “surgical strike” targeting senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri in southern Beirut on January 2.
3/ Israeli forces raided a Hamas and PIJ command and control center in Gaza City’s Shujaiya neighborhood.

Israeli forces captured a Hamas compound in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City. Image
4/ Palestinian militias are attempting to defend against Israeli advances in Bureij in the central Gaza Strip.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israeli forces are “isolating” Khan Younis to find Hamas fighters underground.
5/ Israel rejected a Hamas-proposed, three-phase hostage-for-prisoner deal. The proposal is not compatible with Israeli war aims, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.

The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
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6/ Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in Jenin following demonstrations organized by Palestinian militia groups on January 1. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eight locations across the West Bank on January 2.
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7/ Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 1 and another eight attacks on January 2.
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8/ The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it conducted eight drone and rocket attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria. The group also claimed an unspecified attack targeting Eilat in southern Israel.
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9/ Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with senior Houthi official Mohammad Abdul Salam in Tehran. isw.pub/IranUpdate0102…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jan 4
Palestinian militias continued to try to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Daraj and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City on Jan. 3.

Palestinian militias are attacking Israeli forces behind the Israeli forward line of advance in Gaza City.

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khuzaa southeast of Khan Younis on January 3.

Palestinian militias did not claim any indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip on January 3.

Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats⬇️Image
2/ Hamas, PIJ, and other Palestinian groups condemned the killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.

Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah signaled on January 3 that LH will not immediately escalate against Israel for Israel’s “surgical strike” killing Hamas deputy political bureau chairman Saleh Arouri in Beirut.

Senior Iranian and Axis of Resistance leaders condemned Israel’s killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al Arouri.Image
3/ Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in nine locations across the West Bank.

Lebanese Hezbollah doubled the number of its cross-border attacks into Israel on January 3.
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Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jan 3
The future of NATO is bound up with the future of Ukraine much more tightly than most people understand.

Read more from @nataliabugayova new essay on the High Price of Losing Ukraine.

🧵1/9

@nataliabugayova 2/ A key RU threat to NATO is the risk of the Kremlin manipulating NATO into disavowing its principles.

NATO’s Article 5 — the commitment to mutual self-defense — is not a magic shield. It draws its legitimacy in part from the US’ persistent decision to commit to its allies.
@nataliabugayova 3/ Article 5 does not automatically and legally commit every member of NATO to use military force to defend a member under attack. Each NATO state will have to decide how to act.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jan 3
If the United States and its allies stop their military assistance to Ukraine, ISW's @nataliabugayova says, then they face the real risk of another war in Europe with higher escalation risks and higher costs.

🧵1/8
2/ Withholding military assistance to Ukraine will not freeze the frontlines, as some in US political circles have argued.

It will instead diminish Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military and accelerate Russia’s military drive further and further west.
3/ This is because the fundamental driver of this war — the Kremlin’s intent to eradicate Ukraine’s identity and statehood — has not changed and Putin regularly restates this intent.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jan 3
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin identified the West as Russia’s “enemy” and implied that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West. 🧵1/8

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2/ Putin responded to a Russian serviceman’s question about Western aid to Ukraine during a meeting at a military hospital in Moscow Oblast on January 1, stating that Russia’s issue is not necessarily that the West is aiding Ukraine, but rather that the West is Russia's "enemy." Image
3/ Putin added that “Ukraine by itself is not an enemy for [Russia],” but that Western-based actors “who want to destroy Russian statehood” and achieve the “strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield” are Russia’s enemies.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Jan 1
Israeli forces advanced into Beit Lahiya for clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias attempted to defend against Israeli forces operating in Tuffah and al Daraj in Gaza City.

31 DEC Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats 🧵(1/8)

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2/ Palestinian militias did not claim any attacks in Jabalia City and Sheikh Radwan neighborhood.

Palestinian militias are clashing with Israeli forces in al Bureij in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip.
3/ Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis for the fourth straight week as Palestinian militia fighters tried to defend against Israeli advances. Image
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Dec 31, 2023
A Ukraine strong enough to deter & defeat any future Russian aggression with an economy strong enough to prosper without large amounts of foreign aid is the only outcome of Russia’s war that the US & the West should accept.

Special Report- The Lands Ukraine Must Liberate:🧵1/8


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2/ Trusting Russian promises of good behavior would be foolish. Leaving Ukraine’s economy badly damaged would create a long-term and large drain on Western finances.
3/ Discussions about pressing Ukraine to trade land the Russians now occupy for a ceasefire or armistice have garnered attention recently, based on rumors of Kremlin interest in negotiations of some sort.
Read 8 tweets

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