Thread by @tcambanis

— Thread —

We’re squarely in the take-off zone for all-out regional war.

That terrifying conflagration we’ve been warning against — it seems to have arrived, but not yet irreversibly.

Now might be the last chance to draw back.

1/15

tcf.org/content/commen…

Early in the war at @tcfdotorg we warned about the risks of a full-on regional war that includes the US.

2/15

@CenturyIntl with @AbuJamajem
tcf.org/content/commen…

We called for a ceasefire in Gaza as the only way prevent an even more terrible conflict.

3/15

@CenturyIntl with @AbuJamajem @dahliasc
tcf.org/content/commen…

Nonetheless, in drabs and drabs, every military force in the region has waded into the conflict, even as most of them promise that the last thing they want is a regional war.

4/15

And that’s the conundrum: Hamas and Israel might for different reasons see a benefit in regionalizing the Gaza war, but none of the players beyond Israel and Palestine share that interest.

5/15

So all these well-armed entities say they want to de-escalate, while taking measures that either raise the risk of escalation or create moral hazard that others will.

6/15

The US sent two aircraft carrier groups to the Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah and Iran—a move that emboldened Israel to move against Hezbollah.

One bright spot was the US decision this week to order one of those two carrier groups back home.

7/15

apnews.com/article/uss-ge…

The US and Europe understandably want to protect Red Sea shipping lanes, but that commitment only creates further incentives for Houthi piracy.

Win or lose, Houthis benefit—when they strike ships and when they’re forcefully deterred by the West.

8/15

I won’t list all the attacks and incidents, but events this week alone make clear that we’re already past a line of departure.

Axis of Resistance forces are attacking US targets, killing Americans, and the US is retaliating. Israel is striking all over the region.

9/15

Just a partial list:

The US bombed central Baghdad, killing civilians and risking an end to the consensual US security partnership with the Government of Iraq.

Israel assassinated Hamas leaders in Beirut.

ISIS claimed an attack on civilians at a funeral in Iran.

10/15

Level-headed people have been counseling restraint since the beginning.

It is nearly impossible to avoid an escalation, even an accidental one, in a dynamic system involving so many unaccountable, badly incentivized, or bad faith armed actors.

11/15

Gazans are suffering unacceptably: so many civilians dead, wounded, displaced, facing hunger and disease.

The US can take the lead in stopping the war in Gaza, and preventing its spread in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—where, to be clear, conflict is already underway.

12/15

For now a combination of blind luck and restraint has limited the intensity of the regional war, but the likely outcome is gradually tilting away from the status quo — limited regional war — and toward a more deadly and destabilizing open war.

13/15

Right now, we're counting on restraint from the United States, Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — none of them actors known for restraint and strategic wisdom in the Middle East.

Does this seem like a smart gamble? Not to me.

14/15

Low ebb regional war already is underway.

Only smart course is to pull back now. US should call for a ceasefire and use leverage to immediately stop the Gaza war.

Otherwise Gaza’s tragedy spreads and the slow-rolling regional war swells into a wave.

15/15

– End thread —