Armchair Warlord Profile picture
Jan 6 2 tweets 3 min read Read on X
"Kinzhal is just an air-launched Iskander, it can't be hypersonic!"

Can and is. Let's talk about rockets.

Leaving aside the fact the ground-launched Iskander tactical ballistic missile is also a hypersonic weapon with a maximum velocity of around Mach 6, and whether Kinzhal is actually an Iskander-derived design or not (Wiki suggests it's somewhat larger and I don't think it's even well-established that it's a non-separating missile like Iskander), it's very elementary rocketry that a missile fired at supersonic speed from the stratosphere is going to be far longer-ranged and faster than one fired from the ground.

How much so? Well, we can expect the Kinzhal's carrier aircraft to release it at around Mach 2 and 60,000 feet, near the service ceiling and maximum speed of a Tu-22M and likely what the MiG-31 can actually achieve with such a large missile hanging off its belly. While this may seem like a long way from hypersonic flight, for a space launcher, this flight regime is functionally halfway to orbit.

At that speed and altitude, a Saturn V had already burned about 40% of its total propellant load and was flying beyond Max-Q (the point of maximum dynamic pressure from drag on the airframe, generally reached around Mach 1.5). To give you an idea of how quickly things progress from there, between this point (at around 90 seconds into flight) and main stage burnout is only another 70 seconds, and in that 70 seconds the rocket will accelerate to approximately Mach 8 and climb to 220,000 feet.

Clearly, launching a missile of equal size from this flight regime rather than from the ground will lead to a vastly higher-speed projectile and with it a much longer range. It's functionally the equivalent of doubling a ground-launched missile's propellant while keeping its size and weight constant.

So, yes, this is something that is easily going to be traveling at "proper" hypersonic velocity in the Mach 10+ range when penetrating enemy air defenses. I haven't run numbers on this but I suspect a two-stage derivative could place a small payload in orbit as well, which would have serious military potential for a number of purposes.Image
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Saturn V data from: web.archive.org/web/2017031314…

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More from @ArmchairW

Nov 5, 2023
The Russians have lost around a thousand tanks in Ukraine during the war thus far.

Oh, you want an explanation? Okay. Thread. ⬇️ Image
There has been a problem in estimating Russian vehicle losses since the first hours of the war - Ukrainian propagandists have flooded the internet with dodgy pictures of destroyed Soviet-era vehicles, claimed as Russian. I got started debunking them.

See:
It occurred to me recently, though, that there's a way to "back out" Russian vehicle losses from far better-confirmed data for Russian personnel losses. According to Mediazona's ongoing count there have been 724 Russian tankers killed in the war to date. Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 9, 2023
D+2 update thread on the 2023 Israeli Crisis.

Palestinian forces - belonging to Hamas and other armed groups in the Gaza enclave - stormed the perimeter defenses yesterday morning local time, catching the IDF entirely off-guard. The front line has yet to stabilize. Image
Israeli troops have begun to converge on the area and counterattack, so I do not expect the zone of Palestinian control to expand significantly, and absent external intervention they will likely be driven back into Gaza proper soon. However, that isn't the whole story.
The Palestinians took advantage of their initial breakthrough to flush commandos deep into the Israeli interior, where they have been wreaking havoc for the past two days.

Video of a "road of death" in southern Israel, my understanding is the aftermath of a Gazan attack.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 4, 2023
"Dozens" of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering north of Klescheevka, apparently around 48.552153, 37.960711. Probably the remnants of a whole company.

Very much calls into question their recent claims of success in the area and the motivation of their troops.
Location on the map. This is quite close to the location of an earlier, unsuccessful Russian attack so it seems the Russians regrouped and gave it another shot. Image
Source TG post: t.me/militarysummar…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 2, 2023
If Mediazona's count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is accurate - and it probably is - Russian losses tapered off over the month of August to the point they're now hardly worse than American ones at the height of the Iraq War.

This suggests the AFU is beginning to collapse. ⬇️ Image
First of all the bottom line - Mediazona has confirmed a mere 133 Russian military deaths in the first three weeks of August (their data only goes to August 23rd right now). This is on top of a long-term downward trend in Russian casualties since the winter. Image
Mediazona's total count is slightly over 30,000 for the entire war right now.

How do I know it's accurate? Russian admissions. Recently Gen. Teplinsky, head of the VDV, stated that 8500 Russian paratroopers had been wounded and returned to duty over the course of the war. Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 1, 2023
Update and a little analysis on the attack on Pskov Airfield. ⬇️

First of all this was not a gimmicky operation with cheap drones. Loitering munitions of some kind were used - I personally suspect Switchblade 600s - fired in a large swarm with sophisticated EW support.
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Switchblade 600 has a number of features that make it a good choice for this kind of operation - easy and fast setup, adequate range and speed, relatively small size with limited RCS, thermal, optical and audio signatures, and onboard optics allowing precision targeting and BDA.
Image
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Launched from Estonia, they would arrive on target at Pskov in less than 20 minutes. Given reports of 20 or more attacking drones, enough were launched to destroy every aircraft on the ramp at Pskov and inflict a devastating blow on the Russian Air Force. Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 27, 2023
For the last several months, commentators have endlessly talked about these tactically significant "heights" being fought over in Ukraine. Ukraine's pretty flat, so what are these exactly?

Let's talk about intervisibility lines, with a practical discussion about Rabotino. ⬇️ Image
Militarily significant terrain features can be so subtle that you don't even notice them in daily life.

An intervisibility line is the line where you can see over the terrain feature you're standing on and into low ground beyond - essentially the top of any rise in the ground. Image
Let's look at a piece of flat agricultural land similar to that commonly found in Ukraine. It's pretty flat, but there's more than enough relief to hide troops and even vehicles

Where are the intervisibility lines? Image
Read 15 tweets

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