Matt Davies Profile picture
Jan 8, 2024 24 tweets 9 min read Read on X
🧵RABOTINO POCKET: COLLAPSING THE BAG

The extravagantly hyped AFU 2023 counteroffensive concentrated most of its flourishes on the Tokmak-Melitopol Axis ...springboard for a breathlessly awaited 'Crimean Beach Party'

It became an operational cul de sac
The costly farce seems to be finally drawing to an end, at least in this season of Kiev's theater program

Reports of Ukrainian rout may be premature, or exaggeration of events at a local and low level

Or RuAF advances are as cautious and methodical as much elsewhere
When detail on Russian advances emerges we sometimes see ruthless determination like someone tearing wings off a fly

Mapped pushes and withdrawals here see AFU forces cooped into entrenchments which Russian troops first faced from their forward slopes

opposite to AFU needs Image
The ancient military commandment "seize the high ground", sacred to say spotters and machine gunners, may seem irrelevant in this war of redundant ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) technology and coverage

But as AFU strength wanes further, such brutal topographical and tactical reality poses immediate danger to their entire front

On the Rabotino Axis the salient's central approach offers the AFU few suitable and ready defences even among those taken from the Surovikin Line's forward screen

Although recent reports seem to describe modest Russian advances here, they would imply grave danger for the AFU position from much greater coverage by Russian observed indirect fire, as well as direct-fire weapons, whose ranges and arcs now threaten a continual nightmare for the AFU in its efforts to maintain hard-won but meager lines of advanceImage
Russian seizure of that south-central spur threatened to form two small pockets of exposed AFU troops doomed to annihilation

Their withdrawal may have left a screening force nearer the Russian advance but if so their downhill positions are hardly much better than what they left
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Withdrawn AFU troops had a reduced access to nearby entrenchments

Being dug in can buy time and protection, but not much when downhill of the enemy, while all movement at such positions is restricted severely Image
Then there's the matter of Russian Shell *Supremacy*

Not mere indirect fire superiority, but ongoing domination since the attrition war took off by May 2022

AFU members' first-hand complaints describe its range from a low of *four to one*

The higher ratios become unthinkable Image
The operation was always a futile waste, bound to fail

Newly acquired Leopard 2 MBTs and Bradley IFVs were touted as its Wonder Weapons

But these only added more targets in the Russian ISR matrix, yielding strikes on AFU troops as far back as assembly areas and form-up points Image
Cost in lives is irreplaceable

AFU casualties as released are nowhere near open: rank and other selectivity confirm strict controls on that detail

But a tiny sample of that 'blood trail' nonetheless shows disproportionately high toll among those who never left the starting mark Image
Worse for the AFU, prolonged incursion (rather than actual breakthrough) would compel more reserves just to secure wide flanks

At nearly twice the area's normal frontline, the axis of advance would end up needing near double force strength just to hold

...before covering losses Image
Indeed AFU forces redeployed from the Vasilevka AO to the west, near the Dniepr bend, for just that purpose

...thus fast confirming the total abandonment of any offensive effort in that area, if such had ever been serious to begin with

Again, all this was discernible in just a cursory glance at official blood trailsImage
More bizarre was redeployment of 47 Mech Bde from the Rabotino Axis to the northern flank of Avdeevka AO much farther east

It appears that 118 Mech made the switch, but it could have been a mix of available battalions

With a sluggish advance this was a congested front anyway

But 47's shift to Avdeevka now confirmed that this offensive effort too was for all intents overImage
Regardless, the AFU had committed to a salient and needed to salvage a sense of achievement

Additional forces came from the east too, out of the Vremyevsky Ridge push, to shore up the dam

23 Mech Bde regrouped after its minefield-artillery ordeal similar to that of 47 Mech Bde Image
23 Mech deployed amid reports of a reserve brigade being disbanded

Operational games of 'musical chairs' had characterised much AFU decision since the SMO's start

I called it "robbing Taras to pay Mykola" - confirming failure and exhaustion at each southern AFU axis of advance Image
The Orekhov-Tokmak AO's bizarre mission depended upon suitably weird indeed unmilitary command arrangements

Alexander Tarnavsky, southeastern front chief, wore rank barely enough to pull over the many brigade commanders below him Image
Brigadier-General Tarnavsky appears a practical enough veteran whose role has been more like front coordinator just holding the line to prevent disaster

Tarnavsky was clearly deemed unsuited to run a grandiose counteroffensive

So Kiev improvized, manipulating rank to undermine his commandImage
Major General Mirgorodsky, the officer appointed to lead this main effort, was nominally subordinate to Tarnavsky i.e., under his front command

But Mirgorodsky outranked his new boss

Compromise or innovation? Maybe both, but all to fight Kiev's war under intense NATO pressure Image
Thus did Major-General Mirgorodsky virtually parachute into (or onto) OSU Tavriya in the manner of original airborne roles

...but behind friendly lines

Young, keen, eager and probably over-promoted Image
His mission became purely political from that level

By mid-June the AFU set out merely to prove that a breakthrough to the Black Sea was impossible

Formations rotated into a new fire bag, or kotelImage
Mirgorodsky doubtless has courage, motivation and discipline

But these military virtues become vices when relied upon for futile misadventures like the Orekhov-Rabotino Salient

The anomalous indeed unmilitary command arrangement helped make that political absurdity possible Image
OTU Marun's formations deployed overwhelmingly from reserves and refits outside of Tarnavsky's AO

Like a ruthless 'cab rank' system, rotating battalions through to the forward lines Image
Mirgorodsky's was an entirely ad hoc command, more improvized than the usual makeshift OTU formation

For Marun's chief to outrank his commander meant here that he had political favor to perform a more distasteful job

Most demanding were his task's futility and unclear purpose Image
Ukraine's counteroffensive began amid intense debate, dispute and compromises

Military objectives changed beyond recognition in order to suit political pressures

A heady mix of hype overtook 'Crimea' into a yet more awkwardly reckless "attack and win various parts of the front" Image
The next thread will follow up to examine more closely how the AFU compromised its own counteroffensive

It will also consider in more depth just why it did so Image

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More from @MNormanDavies

Feb 14, 2024
🧵THE BAKHMUT CRUCIBLE
Part 3 - Shell Game: Ukrainian Ground Forces' Unstable Command Structure

Zaluzhny's replacement by Syrsky is a timely reminder to examine the AFU chains of higher command, which are extraordinarily flexible and irregular entities
TLDR: Syrsky SchmyrskyImage
A caveat first: this study is very limited in its source material so several details still need confirmation

A "rule of three separate confirmatory reports" can help with accuracy, along with recalibrating source scrutiny. Avoid spoon feeds, question all
The target is a difficult one because it deliberately minimizes its signature, while emitting much spurious signal detail

Just one person on the task? That is an overload and takes much more time. Ideally a team can better focus on separate stages of this complex process Image
Read 53 tweets
Feb 4, 2024
🧵UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE (GUR)
Child of NATO's Gladio

Recent intrigues around GUR Chief Budanov's rise compel some review of his organization
TLDR: It has both NATO (and Nazi) stamps literally all over itImage
And not just "NATO's stamp"

though it has that twice by way of direct branding Image
Symbols are important to depict and convey very clear even complex messages in an instant. Succinct messaging cuts through euphemism and denial by words (or Minsk agreements)

One need not be a geographer to see GUR's official hostility against Russia itself since at least 2016 Image
Read 36 tweets
Sep 6, 2023
🧵Ukrainian Counter-offensive
The Normandy Comparisons

As Kiev's Summer 2023 campaign faltered repeatedly, a whole chorus of Western apologia arose to help feed and bolster the failure

This was in direct parallel with Western largesse in continual supply of arms and ammunition
Image
The NATO-sourced Normandy analogies were clearly deliberate, pre-meditated and coordinated

Just as the offensive's obvious long-planned Main Effort - Tokmak-Melitopol - was timed exactly to the anniversary of the Normandy D-Day landings i.e.,

6 June

Image
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It seemed to be another effort too to counter vast evidence that many of Kiev's troops would actually rather sympathize and work with those SS formations among Normandy's Axis occupiers

An obvious magical date may confound those westerners complaining NATO is on the wrong side Image
Read 17 tweets
Sep 3, 2023
🧵Ukrainian Nazis
or 'the Rise and Fall of the Weird Reich'

Pt 1
Not only Russians have long alleged that Kiev's post-coup regime not only tolerated Nazism but oversaw its revival to foment anti-Russian and other racist hatred and criminality

NB: original jpeg creator unclear Image
Wherever did critiques of Ukraine get that idea of a revived Nazi danger?

Are they exaggerated?

Here is some investigation to test Russia's allegations and complaint
The Region witnessed large-scale Nazi atrocities up close in World War 2

Just as it experienced the manipulation of ethnic identities - 'Ukrainian' prominent among them - to help carry out such atrocities
Image
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Read 21 tweets
Jun 14, 2023
🧵 UKRAINE’S ZAPOROZHYE OFFENSIVE
Operations Order (OPORD): ‘General Outline of Operations / Commander’s Summary’

It seems clear the Russian Army had explicit forewarning of plans for the AFU’s plans main recent attack

That would all but guarantee disastrous failure for the AFU Image
Text released appears to be quite genuine as part transcription and translation of an AFU OPORD summary

It posted quite early to this URL, but doubtless elsewhere too >

thedreizinreport.com/2023/05/08/dre…
Whether via Russian sources, NATO dissidents or (likely) both, intent and effects would be the same

The above feed here was by US veteran-commentator Jacob Dreizin, no ignoramus himself in these matters

Text detail, although sanitized, seems too specific to have been his alone Image
Read 45 tweets
May 26, 2023
🧵UKRAINE’S ARTILLERY. An Order of Battle study

The AFU’s main indirect fire arm has an unusual “deconstructed” quality which defies normal military organization (like much of the AFU)

TLDR: AFU artillery brigades have not deployed as actual brigades

Some background first... Image
The Russia-Ukraine War shows a prevalence and importance of artillery, a term usually meaning mortars, howitzers, rocket tubes, precision-guided munition and some long-range missile strike

This thread discusses mostly the 2nd & 3rd above, but not exclusively

It’s institutional ImageImage
Artillery assumed high status in military cultures since its birth. The destructive technology of indirect fire nearly always dwarfed and out-ranged that of main rival arms infantry and cavalry

It attracted huge investment

and loathing: overrun gun crews could expect no quarter ImageImage
Read 30 tweets

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