🧵About a year ago while attending the @MunSecConf I wrote a comment on twitter that Europe increasingly felt to me like something straight from history books. The comment was picked up by @MKarnitschnig and included here in his @POLITICOEurope piece.1/7 politico.eu/article/munich…
At a risk of over-rationalizing history, I feel we are at a point akin to 1938. Back then, Germany and Japan were aggressive and rapidly arming, while the US was stubbornly isolationist and while leaders in Europe believed that diplomacy would avert war and preserve peace. 2/7
Today, Russia and China are arming at speed and scale, assisted by Iran and N. Korea in their bid to relitigate the post-Cold War settlement. And leaders across the West seem unwilling to accept that the prospect of a general war is real. As in 1938, we are simply unready. 3/7
Had Western leaders in 1938 responded differently, war could have been avoided. Instead, it did take place, exacting a huge cost in lives and treasure and fundamentally changed power structures across the world. Today I hope against hope that this time it will be different. 4/7
To avert the looming crisis, the West needs to revisit the fundamentals of hard power, starting with the imperative of reshoring our manufacturing base, reducing our dependence on our adversaries when it comes to energy and key supply chains, and rebuilding our militaries. 5/7
We need to stop talking in normative terms, and refocus on geopolitics, geoeconomics, military power, energy, information, social cohesion and national identity--they are all interrelated and mutually reinforcing. They are the pillars of national resilience should war come. 6/7
Democracies have assets no dictatorships can command--they are unbeatable when mobilized around a common goal. But for this mobilization to take place we need to speak clearly about the nature of the threat we face, and what must be done to confront it. We need it today. 7/End
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