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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Jan 8, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Achievement gaps do not simply reflect geographic sorting.

This fact has been known for more than a century now, but some people still don't get it.

Short🧵

First: achievement gaps exist within the same schools.Image
This is not just true for race, it is also true for class. Image
When it comes to district-level family incomes by group, we see that intercepts differ.

In other words, even when lower-performing groups are wealthier, they tend to do worse than higher-performing groups. Image
If you're reading this, you probably know that this replicates the results for rearing household income (1/3):
Parental education (2/3):
And attained education (3/3):
Consider Reardon, Kalogrides & Shores (2019). They found that even in districts where lower-performing groups had higher SES than Whites, they still tended to perform worse.

In this picture, 79% of the mean Black-White gap is independent of SES. At the metro level, 62% was. Image
It is a pernicious myth that test scores and achievement gaps are mere reflections of geography and that geography plays a major causal role in test scores.

The truth is that their association primarily reflects selection.
Sources:



randomcriticalanalysis.com/2016/05/09/my-…
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/70…
I neglected to mention this: results from Moving to Opportunity suggest no significant effects on test scores.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 26
Have you ever noticed that hospitals and insurers aren't exactly transparent about their prices?

No longer!

The President has just signed a new executive order mandating transparent price—not estimate!—reporting within 90 days. Image
That means

- Employers can shop around to save money on health plans

- People can finally figure out if they're priced out of a procedure or provider

- You no longer have to guess whether you're going to pay an arm and a leg for the doctor to save your arms and legs
The savings from this order will accrue not just to consumers, but to employers and insurers.

The losers here will primarily be healthcare providers, because stuff like I discussed in this thread can't happen with transparent pricing:
Read 5 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 26
Compared to men who, on paper, committed similar crimes, women tend to receive shorter criminal sentences. Image
On paper does a lot of work.

We know, for example, that sentencing gaps by race among males largely dissipate when accounting for severity and better measures of criminal priors, so I don't doubt the same might be true for women.

But a pro-female bias seems likely too.
But a revealing fact is that there are still substantial male-female sentencing gaps today.

But contrarily, the race-related gaps in sentencing have largely disappeared due to minimums, sentencing guidelines, etc.

Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 24
The President just released a new policy that does some big things:

- It makes it easier for friendly nations to invest in the U.S.
- It makes it harder for hostile nations to invest in the U.S.
- It makes it harder for hostile nations to steal American technology

And more🧵 Image
To understand why this Order is so big, you'll need a little bit of background.

First, you'll need to understand what the CFIUS, or the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., does. They review foreign investments that might be of national security interest. Image
Second, people have been worried for a while about China buying up U.S. farmland and land near U.S. military bases.

Whether this is a real issue or not, it has prompted policy and endless articles. Image
Read 14 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 23
Gould famously claimed that Samuel Morton lied about the sizes of various skulls in his extensive collection the American Golgotha in a way that was biased in favor of Whites.

So some people went and remeasured the skulls in 2011 and they found Gould wrong, Morton was accurate.Image
The degree to which Morton's measurements held up is so extreme that there is just no room for him to have been a biased measurer.

And this is true for all of the ancestry groups he classified the skulls into, indicating that Gould's criticism was totally off-base. Image
Gould also claimed Morton equated intelligence and cranial capacity and that his calculations were biased by failing to account for sex and stature.

There's no evidence for the former, and the latter was impossible for him due to how his collection was gathered.
Read 6 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 23
This study is being investigated since it includes results by convicted fraud Stephen Breuning.

Without his huge, fake estimates, the meta-analysis is riddled with publication bias. Correcting for it makes the meta-analytic estimate practically and statistically nonsignificant. Image
It is also just unserious to think that a meta-analysis including obvious rubbish should overturn much better established facts.

For example, one of the cited studies claimed to show IQ scores improving by 3.64 g (55 IQ points) when kids (n = 10) were offered a $5 cash prize.
You reveal a lot about yourself if you take nonsensical and unreplicable results seriously.

This meta-analysis never should have been published because of the included fraudulent work, the included garbage work, and the failure to consider psychometric bias explaining results.
Read 8 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Feb 21
People across the political aisle engage in conspiracy theorizing at markedly similar rates, just about different things. Image
Q: Does each side do this to the same extent?

A: Probably not! In the case above, to get the appearance of total symmetry, you have to include a lot of different conspiracies that are very Trump-related.
Q: What about general conspiracist intent and ideation?

A: That's plausibly higher on the right in the U.S., even after accounting for measurement non-invariance. It's not globally higher, but few correlates of politics are globally consistent. More on this soon.
Read 11 tweets

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