Clément Molin Profile picture
Jan 10, 2024 26 tweets 10 min read Read on X
« The Donbass Line🇺🇦 »

Since 2014, 2022 and more recently winter 2023, Ukraine has been building a huge defensive system. The multilayered “Donbass Line” composed of many trench network is quite similar to Russian Surovikin system.

🧵THREAD on Ukrainian in depth defenses⬇️
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When we talk of defensive trench network, the huge Surovikin line is the first thing we think about: trenches, bunkers, mines, dragon teeths…

This particular system, sometimes compared to the Maginot line was one of the assets that stopped Ukrainian summer counteroffensive.

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Since it is already mapped by many, it is not useful to talk about it.
However, I’ve also mapped pre-2022 Russian defenses. It is interesting to see that these particular trenches system can still be used in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

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Let’s talk about Ukrainian defensive lines I called “Donbass line”.

Donbass line is quite different and more complex than Russian Surovikin system: it is composed of highly defended fortified system, separated by fields.

Zoom in⬇️
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If we take the example of Ukrainsk-Muraka line (facing south near Kourakhove), we can see on this Sentinel-2 imagery that each system is separated by a kilometer at least.
Each fort can defend itself from every direction: you have to take all of them to advance.

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Contrary to Russian line, Ukrainian one is composed of many forts that are defending each other.
The 2014-15 Popasna-Luhanske line is a good example: to breakthrough, you have to assure that no other fort has fire control on you. (This particular line was however abandoned)

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The line 0:
This was the 2014-2022 line, it was composed of 2 systems near Marioupol (overrun in a few days because of the lack of personal), 2 lines near Popasna (Ukr retreated to the city) and one line between Marinka and Horlivka, with some part still standing.

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The really first line built from February to June 2022, preparing the retreat of Sievierodonetsk was built from southern Bakhmout to Siversk, passing through Soledar
This defensive system had 2 lines, both were overrun in Bakhmout and Soledar but are still standing in Siversk.
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At the same time, Ukrainians built lines 1, 2 and 3 in northern Donbass. Today, they are still building these lines.
Line one: Siverski-Donets river/Tchasiv Yar/Toretsk.
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Line two and three are the defenses of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: 2 lines are protecting Sloviansk from the North, an anti tank ditcj and 1 line protecting the twin cities from the west.
+ 2 lines protecting Kostiantinivka/Droujkivka.

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Now, as some may ask themselves, the defenses after Avdiivka are already prepared but non-sufficient: main line is 17km from the city.
This line is however behind a river and lakes, making it a natural barrier.

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The final objective of the Russian offensive may be to reach Pokrovsk, the last big city and industrial center of Ukrainian Donbass (with Kramatorsk).
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have built a two layered trench system all around the city.
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Support lines:
Donbass is a thing, but there are 3 other fronts: Kherson, South (Zaporijia) and Louhansk/Kharkiv.

Apart from Mykolaiv defense network and old Russian Kherson defenses, I haven’t found any Ukrainian line in the oblast.
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In Zaporijia oblast, there are at least 2 main defensive lines, plus a line defending the city itself. In Louhansk frontline, we have the Lyman-Borova line quite impressive. There is also a line near Izioum.

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Currently, I’m investigating Ukrainian defenses on Russian border: the Koupiansk-Vovtchansk line, the Kharkiv defenses and border defenses in Sumy and Tchernihiv oblast.
For now I havn’t find many things, suggesting it is just the beginning.

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How does those systems look like? This image is a high resolution one (from google earth pro): you can see part of the western Sloviansk defense.
A Ukrainian trench is never linear, and it is not always linked to avoid loosing a whole line if one part has fallen.

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Ukrainians made fun of Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon teeths, but they are now using it. You can also see this new basement to protect soldiers from artillery and FPV shells.

18/


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To geolocalise these trench network, I used 4 elements:
-Google earth updates (from June to august 2022)
-Sentinel-2 imageries, most of them until may-july 2022 (since it is the best time to see trenches)
-Geolocated Videos showing trenches (Kreminna forest)
-Esri Imageries

19/


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Since some may ask, this work is not helping Russia. Why?
-We mapped Russian positions and defenses before
-Russia has satellites, and IA that can detect these lines
-For most of it, it is now nearly 6-month-old
-The map is indicative and non-exhaustive

20/
I’ve been mapping Ukrainian and Russian defensive lines since nearly 2 years, this is the first part of my final project, it will be updated and improved many times in a row.
Here is the link to have it on your computer. Please credit me when using it!
21/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Keep in mind that when I’m using Sentinel-2, I can’t be precise, and there may be errors since it is sometime really difficult to know if there is a trench or not.

I will improve the map with updates of Maxar imageries in Google Earth.

22/
Here you can find the link for my interpretation of the lines. Since it is not a continuous defensive system, it is only an interpretation of hundreds of trenches. As tweet #21, you can download both trenches and defensive lines.
23/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Since some people have already asked me, if you want to buy me a coffee for my volunteer work (tens of hours of work in my free time), you can here:
Thank you
24/buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin
This is the end of the thread
If you like it, you can repost the first tweet. Make sure to follow both my account @clement_molin and my think tank @atummundi
I will do a French version soon.

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@escortert @Pouletvolant3 @frog_of_war @wolski_jaros @guillaume_ancel @Michel_Goya @ObsDelphi @CartesDuMonde @AudrandS @Black_BirdGroup @emilkastehelmi @GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Stevius21 @Danspiun @Tatarigami_UA @NOELreports @IntelCrab @egea_blog (some that may be interested)
@escortert @Pouletvolant3 @frog_of_war @wolski_jaros @guillaume_ancel @Michel_Goya @ObsDelphi @CartesDuMonde @AudrandS @Black_BirdGroup @emilkastehelmi @GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Stevius21 @Danspiun @Tatarigami_UA @NOELreports @IntelCrab @egea_blog @jdomerchet @DefMon3 @Tendar @Thinker_View @ChrisO_wiki @AndrewPerpetua @COUPSURE

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More from @clement_molin

Nov 25
We often talk about russian 🇷🇺 losses but little about ukrainian 🇺🇦 ones

Holding into Myrnohrad and continuing to send troops inside Pokrovsk has proven to be very costly.

A small update on Pokrovsk, the strategic front and "peace talks" :

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️
Russian soldiers have been seen throughout the city of Pokrovsk for 1 month and half.

According to my research, they still control the majority of the city and are continuing their consolidation. The area south of the railway is +/- under Russian control. (old map) Image
The main area of ​​interest is further east. As the video in the first tweet shows, dozens of Ukrainian armored vehicles and pickup trucks were destroyed on the Rodynske-Myrnohrad road. In Myrnohrad, the Ukrainians still control most of the city. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 23
Poland 🇵🇱 started the construction of part of its "eastern shield" on the border with Kaliningrad 🇷🇺.

After 4 years of war in Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states are however barely starting to prepare defensive lines on their eastern borders...

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
It should already be a reality, it is however still a plan.

After announcing they would prepare fortifications on their eastern border, Poland, the Baltic countries and Finland barely started to build them. The area is only covered by anti-migrants barricades. Image
For now, I only found 3 small areas where we can see fortifications, all in Poland, on the border with Kaliningrad, a Russia oblast.

On the eastern border of the EU, we can only see preparations for fortifications and road blocks on the borders. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 22
Cette vidéo des forces ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 a bientôt 4 ans, plus jamais nous ne verrons ce type d'image.

Pourtant, bon nombre d'armée occidentales fonctionnent encore comme si la guerre en Ukraine n'avait pas lieu.

Il est URGENT de se mettre à jour :

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️
Les armées ukrainiennes et russes ont un avantage technologique massif sur les armées occidentales. Les leçons apprises d'Ukraine seront importantes à prendre en compte ailleurs.

Sommaire :
-drones
-pertes
-blindés
-tranchées
-déploiement de troupes
1- Le drone de reconnaissance

L'utilité principale du drone étant la reconnaissance, celle-ci est massivement utilisée. C'est une chose que nos armées commencent à bien intégrer.

Aucune unité ukrainienne ou russe n'est sans moyen de reconnaissance. Image
Read 22 tweets
Nov 19
L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a pris le contrôle de la ville de Pokrovsk, les combats se poursuivent dans la ville voisine de Myrnohrad.

Dans le même temps, les bastions urbains de Siversk et Houlialpole qui tiennent depuis 3 ans sont désormais menacés.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️Image
C'est la plus grande ville prise depuis Bakhmout en mai 2023 (80 000 habitants), la chute de Pokrovsk (65 000 habitants) est désormais quasi-confirmée par les nombreuses vidéos géolocalisées.

C'est une victoire symbolique, mais également stratégique pour l'armée russe. Image
Après une très longue campagne dans le sud de l'oblast de Donetsk, qui a commencé par le dégagement de la banlieue de Donetsk en 2023-2024 (Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Marinka...), l'armée russe a poursuivit sa progression à l'ouest, encerclant progressivement Pokrovsk. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 18
Second day of a large offensive launched by the SAF 🟢around El Obeid in central Sudan 🇸🇩

After the failure of yesterday's attacks, the army pushed back the RSF 🟡 during massive pick-up fightings today.

A thread to know what is happening in Kordofan ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/14⬇️Image
Once more, the videos are crazy, hundreds of Sudan Army pick-up pushing through the Sahel, north-west of El Obeid.

With the summer season and the failure to push during April-August attempts forced a new strategy.
The SAF lost control of Al Fashir, Darfur capital city last month. The main fightings are now concentrated in the Kordofan region of central Sudan.

The RSF are pulling massive reserves from Al Fashir, with a lot of new supplies given by the UAE, going through Libya.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 16
Un camp de formation des FSR dans l'est de l'Ethiopie 🇪🇹

Pendant que l'armée soudanaise 🇸🇩 forme et entraine les rebelles tigréens du TPLF opposés à Addis Abeba, l'Ethiopie va ouvrir un camp de formation des FSR financé par les Emirats.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Pour bien expliquer :

L'armée soudanaise soutien les rebelles tigréens contre le pouvoir central, elle héberge même l'armée 70 du Tigré (plusieurs milliers d'hommes qui combattent avec l'armée soudanaise).

L'Armée 70 s'entraine et recrute dans l'est du Soudan.
Pour le moment, il n'y a pas de combats entre l'Etat central éthiopiens et le Tigré, même si une frappe de drone a eu lieu, la première depuis les accords de Pretoria contre des soldats tigréens qui avaient avancé dans la région voisine d'Afar.
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