Clément Molin Profile picture
Jan 10, 2024 26 tweets 10 min read Read on X
« The Donbass Line🇺🇦 »

Since 2014, 2022 and more recently winter 2023, Ukraine has been building a huge defensive system. The multilayered “Donbass Line” composed of many trench network is quite similar to Russian Surovikin system.

🧵THREAD on Ukrainian in depth defenses⬇️
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When we talk of defensive trench network, the huge Surovikin line is the first thing we think about: trenches, bunkers, mines, dragon teeths…

This particular system, sometimes compared to the Maginot line was one of the assets that stopped Ukrainian summer counteroffensive.

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Since it is already mapped by many, it is not useful to talk about it.
However, I’ve also mapped pre-2022 Russian defenses. It is interesting to see that these particular trenches system can still be used in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

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Let’s talk about Ukrainian defensive lines I called “Donbass line”.

Donbass line is quite different and more complex than Russian Surovikin system: it is composed of highly defended fortified system, separated by fields.

Zoom in⬇️
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If we take the example of Ukrainsk-Muraka line (facing south near Kourakhove), we can see on this Sentinel-2 imagery that each system is separated by a kilometer at least.
Each fort can defend itself from every direction: you have to take all of them to advance.

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Contrary to Russian line, Ukrainian one is composed of many forts that are defending each other.
The 2014-15 Popasna-Luhanske line is a good example: to breakthrough, you have to assure that no other fort has fire control on you. (This particular line was however abandoned)

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The line 0:
This was the 2014-2022 line, it was composed of 2 systems near Marioupol (overrun in a few days because of the lack of personal), 2 lines near Popasna (Ukr retreated to the city) and one line between Marinka and Horlivka, with some part still standing.

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The really first line built from February to June 2022, preparing the retreat of Sievierodonetsk was built from southern Bakhmout to Siversk, passing through Soledar
This defensive system had 2 lines, both were overrun in Bakhmout and Soledar but are still standing in Siversk.
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At the same time, Ukrainians built lines 1, 2 and 3 in northern Donbass. Today, they are still building these lines.
Line one: Siverski-Donets river/Tchasiv Yar/Toretsk.
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Line two and three are the defenses of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: 2 lines are protecting Sloviansk from the North, an anti tank ditcj and 1 line protecting the twin cities from the west.
+ 2 lines protecting Kostiantinivka/Droujkivka.

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Now, as some may ask themselves, the defenses after Avdiivka are already prepared but non-sufficient: main line is 17km from the city.
This line is however behind a river and lakes, making it a natural barrier.

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The final objective of the Russian offensive may be to reach Pokrovsk, the last big city and industrial center of Ukrainian Donbass (with Kramatorsk).
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have built a two layered trench system all around the city.
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Support lines:
Donbass is a thing, but there are 3 other fronts: Kherson, South (Zaporijia) and Louhansk/Kharkiv.

Apart from Mykolaiv defense network and old Russian Kherson defenses, I haven’t found any Ukrainian line in the oblast.
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In Zaporijia oblast, there are at least 2 main defensive lines, plus a line defending the city itself. In Louhansk frontline, we have the Lyman-Borova line quite impressive. There is also a line near Izioum.

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Currently, I’m investigating Ukrainian defenses on Russian border: the Koupiansk-Vovtchansk line, the Kharkiv defenses and border defenses in Sumy and Tchernihiv oblast.
For now I havn’t find many things, suggesting it is just the beginning.

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How does those systems look like? This image is a high resolution one (from google earth pro): you can see part of the western Sloviansk defense.
A Ukrainian trench is never linear, and it is not always linked to avoid loosing a whole line if one part has fallen.

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Ukrainians made fun of Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon teeths, but they are now using it. You can also see this new basement to protect soldiers from artillery and FPV shells.

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To geolocalise these trench network, I used 4 elements:
-Google earth updates (from June to august 2022)
-Sentinel-2 imageries, most of them until may-july 2022 (since it is the best time to see trenches)
-Geolocated Videos showing trenches (Kreminna forest)
-Esri Imageries

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Since some may ask, this work is not helping Russia. Why?
-We mapped Russian positions and defenses before
-Russia has satellites, and IA that can detect these lines
-For most of it, it is now nearly 6-month-old
-The map is indicative and non-exhaustive

20/
I’ve been mapping Ukrainian and Russian defensive lines since nearly 2 years, this is the first part of my final project, it will be updated and improved many times in a row.
Here is the link to have it on your computer. Please credit me when using it!
21/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Keep in mind that when I’m using Sentinel-2, I can’t be precise, and there may be errors since it is sometime really difficult to know if there is a trench or not.

I will improve the map with updates of Maxar imageries in Google Earth.

22/
Here you can find the link for my interpretation of the lines. Since it is not a continuous defensive system, it is only an interpretation of hundreds of trenches. As tweet #21, you can download both trenches and defensive lines.
23/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Since some people have already asked me, if you want to buy me a coffee for my volunteer work (tens of hours of work in my free time), you can here:
Thank you
24/buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin
This is the end of the thread
If you like it, you can repost the first tweet. Make sure to follow both my account @clement_molin and my think tank @atummundi
I will do a French version soon.

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@escortert @Pouletvolant3 @frog_of_war @wolski_jaros @guillaume_ancel @Michel_Goya @ObsDelphi @CartesDuMonde @AudrandS @Black_BirdGroup @emilkastehelmi @GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Stevius21 @Danspiun @Tatarigami_UA @NOELreports @IntelCrab @egea_blog (some that may be interested)
@escortert @Pouletvolant3 @frog_of_war @wolski_jaros @guillaume_ancel @Michel_Goya @ObsDelphi @CartesDuMonde @AudrandS @Black_BirdGroup @emilkastehelmi @GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Stevius21 @Danspiun @Tatarigami_UA @NOELreports @IntelCrab @egea_blog @jdomerchet @DefMon3 @Tendar @Thinker_View @ChrisO_wiki @AndrewPerpetua @COUPSURE

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More from @clement_molin

Jan 18
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces continue to prepare important obstacle lines everywhere on the frontlines.

In the Donbas, we now have multiple "New Donbas Lines", as well as tens barbed wire lines, In Zaporizhzhia, there is now more and more of those barbed wire. Every progress will be costly.

▪️East and South of Kramatorsk, we can count numerous small obstacle lines. West of the city, we can count 3 large lines (the third one is being expanded north), each cut every 10km by a parallel line (I can count around 4 right now), forming small 10/5km rectangles.
▪️In the south, the Novomykolaivka line is now continuous, it is 100km long. East of it, it seems too late to build new lines, but ukrainian forces started to prepare multiple barbed wire lines west of their current defense, the Haichur river.
▪️North of the two defensive lines built in 2024 (the big lines looking south), we can see the first preparations for a third reinforced line that will probably join the Novomykolaivka and the Vilniansk ones, offering a retreat line north of Orikhiv.
▪️In the Pavlohrad direction, a third line in front of Vassylivka is being prepared. The first one is the unfinished line in front of Pokrovsk'e which continues in front of Prossiana, the second is the nearly finished one, which is the longest continuous line Ukraine has (it goes from Ternuvate to Kramatorsk, that's the big one going behind the main cities) and this third line is being prepared south of Vassylivka and west of the second.
▪️Despite the snow, a lot of construction is ongoing everywhere in Ukraine and new lines are getting ready. Every week Russia is waiting means more time and men to get through those lines.Image
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Here those "kill rectangles", the new portion we've been waiting for to connect Veliky Burluk line with Karkhiv one, the multiple barbed wire in front of Prossiana and a map of all Ukraine. Image
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Here a simplified view, with in yellow the main lines and in white secondary lines. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
En #Syrie 🇸🇾, les Forces Démocratiques Syriennes (dirigées par les Kurdes) se sont effondrées

Les milices arabes locales et l'armée syrienne sont entrées dans Raqqa et la région, avec une population syrienne en liesse.

Ce soir un cessez-le-feu est annoncé.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
C'est presque un tiers du pays qui échappait encore au contrôle de Damas un an après la chute d'Assad.

Dans le nord-est syrien, les Forces Démocratiques Syriennes, dominées par les Kurdes (YPG/YPJ) contrôlaient un vaste territoire allant jusqu'à l'Euphrate et au delà. Image
Il faut dire que dans les 4 gouvernorats sous contrôle des FDS, tous sont à majorité arabe, en particulier ceux de Deir-Ez-Zor et Raqqa.

Les Kurdes, concentrés dans le corner du Nord-Est et à Kobané ne formaient qu'une minorité. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jan 16
The Dnipro campaign, from Kalanchak to Vosenssensk, 2022-2025 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

With this series of 42 historical maps, let's revisit one of the most unique military campaigns of the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦.

PART 1 : Analysis of Ukraine's southern front, february-march 2022

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
Feburary 23rd, 2022. More than 20 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers amass themselves on the border, facing around 500 ukrainian 🇺🇦 defenders.

Russian 58th, 49th and 22nd army are facing ~1 300 soldiers from the 58th motorized brigade (including 1 000 of whom are at the training ground of Oleshky sands).

This unit is the only one facing the russian invasion south of the Dnipro river. The closest reinforcements are in Mykolaiv (35th Marines), in Zaporizhia, Odessa or Mariupol (they are quite busy). A day before the invasion, 300 soldiers from the 58th motorized are repositioned to Henichesk and Chaplinka, to support the 137th Marine bataillon and border guards (200 soldiers in total).

Why so few men ? Because Ukraine thought Russia would attack in the Donbass, usually, 3 brigades should have been positionned in front of Crimea (the 93rd mechanized brigade was redeployed a week before to Kharkiv, and managed to save the city), only one was there and was not occupying border positions.Image
On the morning of the 24th, Russia launched massive air and missile strikes on ukrainian positions, radars, airport and air-defense.

The 58th motorized brigade moved from Oleshky sands to meet the russians while the 137th and border guards started fleeing to the bridges.

Russia strikes on to directions, with the 58th army attacking Henichesk and the 49th Kalanchak. Both armies were supported by numerous helicopters and planes.Image
Read 25 tweets
Jan 13
La Moldavie🇲🇩 entre danger à l'est face à la Transnistrie et perspectives de réunification avec la Roumanie 🇷🇴

De l'autre côté de la frontière, l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 se tient prête face à la menace de l'état séparatiste et de ses soldats russes.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️Image
La question moldave est revenue dans l'actualité, comme très régulièrement depuis 4 ans, avec cette fois une déclaration choc de la président Maia Sandu, qui "voterait pour la réunification avec la Roumanie s'il y avait un référendum". Image
Si près de 85% de la population du pays se dit moldave ou roumaine (très similaires, histoire commune, les moldaves sont plus nombreux en roumanie), il y a environ 15% de minorités (ukrainiens, russes, gagaouzes, bulgares, allemands, roms...) et la réunification fait 50/50.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 11
Turkiye 🇹🇷, Chad 🇹🇩, UAE 🇦🇪, Kenya 🇰🇪, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦... who supports who in the Sudan war ?

The Sudan 🇸🇩 war opposing SAF and RSF is no longer a local war for power but rather a regional confrontation between multiple countries.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
Disclaimer : mapping which country supports the RSF and FSR does not mean everything is correct. Russia and Ukraine are not allied, Ethiopia is closed to Turkiye and Saudi Arabia and multiple countries are barely involved or neutral so I kept them in white.

The borders you can see is not the recognized border map but the actual control lines. In black stands djihadist groups, in green SAF allies and in red RSF allies.

Feel free to give me informations on the countries that I mapped as "neutral".Image
Countries supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces :

The SAF was during a long time without serious allies, but the situation recently changed after they liberated the capital Kharoum.

Here, we'll see the main SAF allies and foreign proxies : Image
Read 24 tweets
Jan 8
The United-Arab-Emirates 🇦🇪 foreign policy : divider of countries, ally of Israel and the Western world, resolute fighter against Islamism...

Today, let's dive into the UAE foreign policy to understand why it is that much aggressive and contested ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ Image
They lost in Yemen during these last days, but it was previously a victory for the UAE :

-created a pseudo separatist state of South-Arabia
-took control of Aden city in 2018
-invaded and occupied the strategic and touristic Socotra island
-annexed other islands Image
Let's get back to the history of the UAE foreign policy :

After gaining independence in 1971, the UAE pursued a foreign policy that was:

▪️Discreet and defensive
▪️Closely aligned with Saudi Arabia and the United States
▪️Focused on the survival of the young federal state Image
Read 24 tweets

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