Since 2014, 2022 and more recently winter 2023, Ukraine has been building a huge defensive system. The multilayered “Donbass Line” composed of many trench network is quite similar to Russian Surovikin system.
🧵THREAD on Ukrainian in depth defenses⬇️
1/25
When we talk of defensive trench network, the huge Surovikin line is the first thing we think about: trenches, bunkers, mines, dragon teeths…
This particular system, sometimes compared to the Maginot line was one of the assets that stopped Ukrainian summer counteroffensive.
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Since it is already mapped by many, it is not useful to talk about it.
However, I’ve also mapped pre-2022 Russian defenses. It is interesting to see that these particular trenches system can still be used in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.
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Let’s talk about Ukrainian defensive lines I called “Donbass line”.
Donbass line is quite different and more complex than Russian Surovikin system: it is composed of highly defended fortified system, separated by fields.
Zoom in⬇️ 4/
If we take the example of Ukrainsk-Muraka line (facing south near Kourakhove), we can see on this Sentinel-2 imagery that each system is separated by a kilometer at least.
Each fort can defend itself from every direction: you have to take all of them to advance.
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Contrary to Russian line, Ukrainian one is composed of many forts that are defending each other.
The 2014-15 Popasna-Luhanske line is a good example: to breakthrough, you have to assure that no other fort has fire control on you. (This particular line was however abandoned)
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The line 0:
This was the 2014-2022 line, it was composed of 2 systems near Marioupol (overrun in a few days because of the lack of personal), 2 lines near Popasna (Ukr retreated to the city) and one line between Marinka and Horlivka, with some part still standing.
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The really first line built from February to June 2022, preparing the retreat of Sievierodonetsk was built from southern Bakhmout to Siversk, passing through Soledar
This defensive system had 2 lines, both were overrun in Bakhmout and Soledar but are still standing in Siversk. 8/
At the same time, Ukrainians built lines 1, 2 and 3 in northern Donbass. Today, they are still building these lines.
Line one: Siverski-Donets river/Tchasiv Yar/Toretsk. 9/
Line two and three are the defenses of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: 2 lines are protecting Sloviansk from the North, an anti tank ditcj and 1 line protecting the twin cities from the west.
+ 2 lines protecting Kostiantinivka/Droujkivka.
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Now, as some may ask themselves, the defenses after Avdiivka are already prepared but non-sufficient: main line is 17km from the city.
This line is however behind a river and lakes, making it a natural barrier.
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The final objective of the Russian offensive may be to reach Pokrovsk, the last big city and industrial center of Ukrainian Donbass (with Kramatorsk).
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have built a two layered trench system all around the city. 13/
Support lines:
Donbass is a thing, but there are 3 other fronts: Kherson, South (Zaporijia) and Louhansk/Kharkiv.
Apart from Mykolaiv defense network and old Russian Kherson defenses, I haven’t found any Ukrainian line in the oblast. 14/
In Zaporijia oblast, there are at least 2 main defensive lines, plus a line defending the city itself. In Louhansk frontline, we have the Lyman-Borova line quite impressive. There is also a line near Izioum.
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Currently, I’m investigating Ukrainian defenses on Russian border: the Koupiansk-Vovtchansk line, the Kharkiv defenses and border defenses in Sumy and Tchernihiv oblast.
For now I havn’t find many things, suggesting it is just the beginning.
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How does those systems look like? This image is a high resolution one (from google earth pro): you can see part of the western Sloviansk defense.
A Ukrainian trench is never linear, and it is not always linked to avoid loosing a whole line if one part has fallen.
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Ukrainians made fun of Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon teeths, but they are now using it. You can also see this new basement to protect soldiers from artillery and FPV shells.
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To geolocalise these trench network, I used 4 elements:
-Google earth updates (from June to august 2022)
-Sentinel-2 imageries, most of them until may-july 2022 (since it is the best time to see trenches)
-Geolocated Videos showing trenches (Kreminna forest)
-Esri Imageries
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Since some may ask, this work is not helping Russia. Why?
-We mapped Russian positions and defenses before
-Russia has satellites, and IA that can detect these lines
-For most of it, it is now nearly 6-month-old
-The map is indicative and non-exhaustive
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I’ve been mapping Ukrainian and Russian defensive lines since nearly 2 years, this is the first part of my final project, it will be updated and improved many times in a row.
Here is the link to have it on your computer. Please credit me when using it!
21/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Keep in mind that when I’m using Sentinel-2, I can’t be precise, and there may be errors since it is sometime really difficult to know if there is a trench or not.
I will improve the map with updates of Maxar imageries in Google Earth.
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Here you can find the link for my interpretation of the lines. Since it is not a continuous defensive system, it is only an interpretation of hundreds of trenches. As tweet #21, you can download both trenches and defensive lines.
23/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Since some people have already asked me, if you want to buy me a coffee for my volunteer work (tens of hours of work in my free time), you can here:
Thank you
24/buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin
This is the end of the thread
If you like it, you can repost the first tweet. Make sure to follow both my account @clement_molin and my think tank @atummundi
I will do a French version soon.
25/25
@escortert @Pouletvolant3 @frog_of_war @wolski_jaros @guillaume_ancel @Michel_Goya @ObsDelphi @CartesDuMonde @AudrandS @Black_BirdGroup @emilkastehelmi @GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Stevius21 @Danspiun @Tatarigami_UA @NOELreports @IntelCrab @egea_blog (some that may be interested)
After 11 days of war in the Middle East, here is a new MAP UPDATE 🇮🇷/🇮🇱🇺🇸
The Hormuz Strait remains closed, Iran and Hezbollah continue to launch strikes, while the US and Israel intensify their campaign in multiple Iranian cities.
🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️
This is THE breaking news for today. Multiple Iranian made Shahed drones reached for the second time southern Oman, hitting the oil facilities of Salalah Port.
Oman 🇴🇲, which remains neutral, was one of the only state congratulating the new Iranian Ayatollah...
Today's strikes against Oman are a clear signal Iran will not stop targeting oil infrastructures in the region until the war ends.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE have also been recently targeted and hit, mainly by Iranian drones.
Ces dernières semaines, l'armée russe a redéployé le 68ème corps d'armée, la 40ème brigade et la 55ème division d'infanterie navale et la 39ème brigade motorisée dans le secteur d'Houlialpole.
After 10 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, the economical situation is worsening
Here is a new MAP UPDATE with the military situation, the economical situation, some analysis and some prospects :
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
The war has been going on for now more than 10 days and the repercussion are felt worldwide.
Iran held despite constant strikes which obliterated its navy and airforce and still continues to launch important drone and missile strikes across the region.
The death of Ayatollah Khamenei which was quickly replaced within ten days by his son didn't have the expected results.
The Iranian president and part of the leadership is still alive, while the IRCG individuals now understood that their bases are not safe.
Quelles implications pour chaque Etat du Moyen-Orient dans la guerre ?
Chacun des ~19 Etats de la région est touché de manière plus ou moins profonde par la guerre, voici un petit résumé Etat par Etat.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
(Partenariat qui peut vous servir) :
L'histoire et la géopolitique de la région étant complexe, pour ceux qui n'ont pas eu de cours dessus ou veulent se remettre à niveau, voici une formation :
La Turquie a abattu un missile iranien au dessus de son territoire, des débris sont retombés dans le Hatay.
🔹Armée : Ankara a massé des troupes à sa frontière sud-est, non pas pour intervenir en Iran, mais pour empêcher un afflux massif de réfugiés et surveiller les mouvements kurdes qui pourraient profiter du chaos.
🔹Politique : Erdogan adopte une posture de condamnation de l'offensive américaine, tout en laissant les radars de l'OTAN sur son sol fournir des données cruciales aux alliés. Il joue la médiation pour ne pas perdre son influence sur le marché énergétique.
🔹La Turquie est dans une mauvaise posture. La guerre pourrait créer une crise des réfugiés massive à sa frontière, sa politique basée sur l'entente entre les pays musulmans se voit impactée et le renforcement d'Israël est un mauvais signal pour Ankara. La Turquie surveille de près les kurdes d'Iran (qu'elle considère comme une menace) et les azéris d'Iran, de potentiels alliés turciques.
🔹En cas de chute du régime, Ankara perdra le rôle qu'elle joue actuellement dans la région, notamment sur l'aspect commercial et sécuritaire. La Turquie n'a aucun intérêt à avoir un Iran pro-américain et puissant à sa frontière.
After 8 days of war between Iran 🇮🇷 and the USA/Israel 🇺🇸🇮🇱, here is a new MAP UPDATE
In total, the US and Israel conducted around 4 500 strikes across Iran, while Iran retaliated with 3 500 vectors, including ~905 missiles.
🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️
Despite facing significant challenges due to Israeli-American air supremacy over Iranian territory, Iranian retaliatory strikes continue across the Middle East, while the United States continues to accumulate damage to its bases.
After initial strikes that had few results (except in Bahrain and Kuwait), Iran used more precise missiles to strike four AN/TPY-2 (THAAD) radars, blinding the region's air defenses and limiting response time.
The massive consumption of Patriot missiles also raises concerns about a potential shortage.