Clément Molin Profile picture
Jan 10, 2024 26 tweets 10 min read Read on X
« The Donbass Line🇺🇦 »

Since 2014, 2022 and more recently winter 2023, Ukraine has been building a huge defensive system. The multilayered “Donbass Line” composed of many trench network is quite similar to Russian Surovikin system.

🧵THREAD on Ukrainian in depth defenses⬇️
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When we talk of defensive trench network, the huge Surovikin line is the first thing we think about: trenches, bunkers, mines, dragon teeths…

This particular system, sometimes compared to the Maginot line was one of the assets that stopped Ukrainian summer counteroffensive.

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Since it is already mapped by many, it is not useful to talk about it.
However, I’ve also mapped pre-2022 Russian defenses. It is interesting to see that these particular trenches system can still be used in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

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Let’s talk about Ukrainian defensive lines I called “Donbass line”.

Donbass line is quite different and more complex than Russian Surovikin system: it is composed of highly defended fortified system, separated by fields.

Zoom in⬇️
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If we take the example of Ukrainsk-Muraka line (facing south near Kourakhove), we can see on this Sentinel-2 imagery that each system is separated by a kilometer at least.
Each fort can defend itself from every direction: you have to take all of them to advance.

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Contrary to Russian line, Ukrainian one is composed of many forts that are defending each other.
The 2014-15 Popasna-Luhanske line is a good example: to breakthrough, you have to assure that no other fort has fire control on you. (This particular line was however abandoned)

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The line 0:
This was the 2014-2022 line, it was composed of 2 systems near Marioupol (overrun in a few days because of the lack of personal), 2 lines near Popasna (Ukr retreated to the city) and one line between Marinka and Horlivka, with some part still standing.

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The really first line built from February to June 2022, preparing the retreat of Sievierodonetsk was built from southern Bakhmout to Siversk, passing through Soledar
This defensive system had 2 lines, both were overrun in Bakhmout and Soledar but are still standing in Siversk.
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At the same time, Ukrainians built lines 1, 2 and 3 in northern Donbass. Today, they are still building these lines.
Line one: Siverski-Donets river/Tchasiv Yar/Toretsk.
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Line two and three are the defenses of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: 2 lines are protecting Sloviansk from the North, an anti tank ditcj and 1 line protecting the twin cities from the west.
+ 2 lines protecting Kostiantinivka/Droujkivka.

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Now, as some may ask themselves, the defenses after Avdiivka are already prepared but non-sufficient: main line is 17km from the city.
This line is however behind a river and lakes, making it a natural barrier.

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The final objective of the Russian offensive may be to reach Pokrovsk, the last big city and industrial center of Ukrainian Donbass (with Kramatorsk).
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have built a two layered trench system all around the city.
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Support lines:
Donbass is a thing, but there are 3 other fronts: Kherson, South (Zaporijia) and Louhansk/Kharkiv.

Apart from Mykolaiv defense network and old Russian Kherson defenses, I haven’t found any Ukrainian line in the oblast.
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In Zaporijia oblast, there are at least 2 main defensive lines, plus a line defending the city itself. In Louhansk frontline, we have the Lyman-Borova line quite impressive. There is also a line near Izioum.

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Currently, I’m investigating Ukrainian defenses on Russian border: the Koupiansk-Vovtchansk line, the Kharkiv defenses and border defenses in Sumy and Tchernihiv oblast.
For now I havn’t find many things, suggesting it is just the beginning.

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How does those systems look like? This image is a high resolution one (from google earth pro): you can see part of the western Sloviansk defense.
A Ukrainian trench is never linear, and it is not always linked to avoid loosing a whole line if one part has fallen.

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Ukrainians made fun of Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon teeths, but they are now using it. You can also see this new basement to protect soldiers from artillery and FPV shells.

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To geolocalise these trench network, I used 4 elements:
-Google earth updates (from June to august 2022)
-Sentinel-2 imageries, most of them until may-july 2022 (since it is the best time to see trenches)
-Geolocated Videos showing trenches (Kreminna forest)
-Esri Imageries

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Since some may ask, this work is not helping Russia. Why?
-We mapped Russian positions and defenses before
-Russia has satellites, and IA that can detect these lines
-For most of it, it is now nearly 6-month-old
-The map is indicative and non-exhaustive

20/
I’ve been mapping Ukrainian and Russian defensive lines since nearly 2 years, this is the first part of my final project, it will be updated and improved many times in a row.
Here is the link to have it on your computer. Please credit me when using it!
21/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Keep in mind that when I’m using Sentinel-2, I can’t be precise, and there may be errors since it is sometime really difficult to know if there is a trench or not.

I will improve the map with updates of Maxar imageries in Google Earth.

22/
Here you can find the link for my interpretation of the lines. Since it is not a continuous defensive system, it is only an interpretation of hundreds of trenches. As tweet #21, you can download both trenches and defensive lines.
23/google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…
Since some people have already asked me, if you want to buy me a coffee for my volunteer work (tens of hours of work in my free time), you can here:
Thank you
24/buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin
This is the end of the thread
If you like it, you can repost the first tweet. Make sure to follow both my account @clement_molin and my think tank @atummundi
I will do a French version soon.

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@escortert @Pouletvolant3 @frog_of_war @wolski_jaros @guillaume_ancel @Michel_Goya @ObsDelphi @CartesDuMonde @AudrandS @Black_BirdGroup @emilkastehelmi @GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Stevius21 @Danspiun @Tatarigami_UA @NOELreports @IntelCrab @egea_blog @jdomerchet @DefMon3 @Tendar @Thinker_View @ChrisO_wiki @AndrewPerpetua @COUPSURE

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More from @clement_molin

Nov 5
I agree, Ukraine had established its strategy in the defense of cities by retreating into them (Sievierodonetk, Sumy, Kyiv…)

Since Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army is no longer able to defend inside cities, examples : (Avdiivka, Selydove, Kourakhove, Pokrovsk…)

🧵THREAD🧵1/13⬇️ Image
The core of ukrainian strategy in 2022 was to retreat from the countrysides into large cities, this happened in the north, Nyzhin, Chernihiv, Konotop, Romny...

During the movement warfare, cities were the base of the defense, and Ukraine tryied to keep it later.
In 2023, Ukraine also based its defense on major cities, the main example is Bakhmut, for which the urban battle was one of the biggest and longest (talking about fightings inside, not in the flanks).

-> Bakhmut was the last battle fought during long time inside a city
Read 13 tweets
Nov 4
Seen from Kyiv 🇺🇦, the last Donbas fortress

Most maps of the war in Ukraine are showing the same perspective and the same informations. Here, you will see rivers, railways, fortifications, forests...

20 surprising maps on the war in Ukraine

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️⬇️⬇️Image
1- The frontline in december 2022

Days after the end of the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensive, russian army was controling less than 50% of the Donetsk region. The battle for Bakhmut just started and Donetsk was still threatened.

This map may seem old or out of context, but it actually helps to better understand the evolution of the Russian offensives in the Donbas.

One must put oneself in the shoes of the political and military decision-makers in Moscow: they had failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa, to force Ukraine to capitulate, they had been humiliated in Kharkiv, and had to retreat from Kherson. It was therefore the full force of Soviet firepower that was deployed in the east of the country and became ruthless in the ensuing battles, sometimes at the cost of very heavy losses, as at Bakhmut and Avdiivka.Image
2- Three years in Donbas

The last 3 years of war have mainly been fought in Donbass.

After very slow and costly advances for the Russian army in Bakhmut and Avdiivka in 2023, the offensive towards Pokrovsk accelerated in 2024, with the Ukrainian army surrendering the best fortifications in the Donetsk suburbs.

The main Russian victory took place in South Donetsk, now completely under Russian control, but many months of campaigning remain, at the current pace, between one and two years to capture the last strongholds in North Donetsk. These three years have seen a constant offensive, the gradual depletion of Ukrainian reserves, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a relentless war of attrition. On paper, the Ukrainian army has held its ground and not yielded, despite local setbacks. It remains to be seen whether it will maintain its endurance.Image
Read 23 tweets
Nov 3
L'Armée Soudanaise 🇸🇩 continue d'offrir une base arrière pour les rebelles Tigréens 🔴🟡en réaction au soutien Ethiopien 🇪🇹 aux FSR.

Sur cette vidéo, 500 recrues de l'Armée 70 du TPLF participent à une cérémonie de remise des diplômes dans l'est du Soudan.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8⬇️
En tout, l'Armée 70 compterai plus de 5 000 hommes basés dans l'Etat du Gédaref, à l'est du Soudan.

Ces hommes ont fuit le Tigré en 2020, lorsque l'Ethiopie, l'Erythrée et les forces de l'Amhara avaient coupé la rébellion Tigréenne de la frontière soudanaise. Image
La région de Welkait, à l'ouest du Tigré (annexée par la région tigréenne à l'Amhara dans les années 1990) a été prise et annexée par l'amhara en 2020, coupant l'accès au Soudan, crucial pour les tigréens. Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 1
🇷🇺/🇺🇦2026: Kramatorsk and Zaporijia?

With two months to go before the end of 2025, the Russian army continues to lay the groundwork for major battles in 2026.

With Pokrovsk falling, Putin will not stop his war before conquering Kramatorsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️Image
The capture of Pokrovsk is drawing closer, culminating a two-year offensive to first clear the outskirts of Donetsk and then assault this strategic city.

Situated on a hilltop and boasting a significant rail and road network, Pokrovsk will give the russians a major advantage. Image
The capture of Pokrovsk is not yet a done deal, and I estimate that the battle, particularly in the suburbs, will continue for several more months.

The Ukrainian army still holds the strongholds of Udachne and Rodynske, preventing any overrun on its flanks. Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 31
Un lent génocide est en cours au Soudan 🇸🇩 et personne n'en parle

Le massacre à caractère génocidaire de milliers de Zaghawas à El Fasher n'est qu'une étape qui a débuté à la fin des années 1980.

Un génocide par étapes dans l'ouest du Soudan :

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
A El Fasher, plus de 2 500 civils ont été tués dans les massacres des derniers jours après la prise de la ville.

Ce chiffre ne reflèterai cependant pas la réalité et la taille des massacres. On se rapprocherai plus d'un ordre de grandeur d'environ 10 000 morts au vu des vidéos. Image
Qu'est ce qui me fait venir à ce chiffre ?

Les témoignages, les images satellites, les vidéos et les données de l'arrivées des réfugiés permettent d'en douter.

Sur cette vidéo, il y a facilement plus de 1 000 hommes rassemblés avant d'être massacrés.
Read 24 tweets
Oct 26
A El Fasher dans l'ouest du #Soudan 🇸🇩, les FSR s'emparent de la base de la 6ème division, encerclée depuis 2 ans.

Des milliers de civils, principalement des Zaghawas (noirs) réfugiés dans la ville fuient vers le désert, poursuivis par les FSR (arabes).

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️
El Fasher, 4ème (?) plus grande ville du Soudan, capitale de l'ouest du pays était la dernière ville a résister aux forces de soutien rapide, les FSR.

A l'intérieur, en plus des habitants traditionnels, des réfugiés des guerres précédentes, environ 1.5 millions d'habitants.
Les FSR sont une milice arabe du Darfour (l'ouest du Soudan). Ils se battent depuis la fin des années 1990 contre les peuples africains du Darfour, dont les Fur, Zafgawas et Massalit.

Depuis 2023, les FSR tentent de renverser le pouvoir à Khartoum en se battant contre l'armée. Image
Read 12 tweets

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