Ron Butler Profile picture
Jan 11 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Property Taxes Go Nuts Across Canada: Cities & Towns Can NEVER Reduce Spending

Mayor Chow announces a 10.5% Property Tax increase & unless her attempt to Blackmail the Feds into a $250M payment works she says she will need to bump the increase to 16%

Even in low tax Alberta

2/
Is up 7.5% to 10% in Calgary

God help the people of little Osoyoos BC where property tax jumped 38%

All Canadian cities will see big bumps

Naturally Mayor's across Canada blame inflation & other levels of Government

Bank of Canada Governor Maclem tears up a bit

3/
As both the US CPI Report & all these huge Canadian Municipal Tax increases prove inflation isn't dead yet

It's interesting NOT ONE Mayor discussed aggressive ways to reduce spending to reverse these huge increases

Why is that never a topic? It never crosses their minds

4/
Today Governments at every level believe the public will just accept endless deficit spending & tax increases

Politicians believe Canadians have stopped caring & let's face it there's endless protests in the streets about war in other countries but zero pushback on taxes

5/
Canadians are completely complacent on ridiculous government waste, payroll increases & endless headcount growth

There is a cost to not caring about how inefficient, ineffective, wasteful & careless government are with taxpayer's money

It's crazy really: zero accountability

6/
The Toronto Crosstown LRT is so screwed up: its Billions over budget, multiple years late & NO ONE can tell you if or when it will ever finish

And the guy in charge of that insanity didn't get fired he got his contract EXTENDED

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Jan 5
Young People Are Leaving Canada: Can Their Be Any Bigger Indictment Of Our Policies?

I spoke to a young woman in her 20's this week & it was kinda heartbreaking

She's well educated, has a good job she is striving to get better at & believes she had no economic prospects

2/
Most poignantly, she believes she will never own a home in Canada: her parents are renters so there's no huge gift coming

And although she lives outside the GTA proper her rent is too high to achieve any meaningful level of savings that might form a down payment

Like never

3/
When I asked if any of her friends had left Canada she said several had: NOT for travel: to live permanently

2 couples: one who moved to Latin American one to South America

Both couples continue to do Digital work in Canada or the USA

And they LOVE where they are now

4/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 27, 2023
Canada's Housing Foreign Buyer Ban: Pointless Political Theater

I posted this was a waste of time when the policy was announced let's review:

It's NOT about Foreign Buyers It's about Foreign MONEY

And there's likely $400B already here stored with Permanent Residents

2/
Its money storage in Canadian RE & it's ONLY perfectly safe if the title of the property is with a recent Canadian citizen or, most often a Permanent Resident

Let's say you're a Multi-Millionaire in a country that's a Totalitarian Dictatorship & don't trust that government

3/
You would want a method to move money offshore & simultaneously want your family to be safe if your Government takes an unwanted interest in your wealth so a spouse is sent to Canada under a Business Ownership Program but most likely a child is sent as a University Student

4/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 20, 2023
Appraisal Problems Growing Fast: What's Happening?

Because it can be a disaster

Today New Construction Purchases are vulnerable to appraisal problems mainly in Low Rise: Single Family Detached, Semi's, Townhouses

In Ontario problems are growing & it can be devastating

2/
We looked at a 35% less than purchase price appraisal last week (almost $800K less) since confirmed by a second appraisal

One came in 10% less than purchase price yesterday ($100K) and on Monday a 7% less value which didn't effect the transaction because 35% down payment

3/
New Construction purchased in May / June 2022 all coming to completion now

Essentially purchased at a price peak & now closing in a trough

Big Deposits $150K to $450K which could be at Risk

People who cannot find solutions: $700K - $1M losses on value can be life altering

4/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
Should We Ban Huge Companies From Owning Individual Homes? YES We Should

They are trying to that in the USA

A bill has been introduced to prevent Hedge Funds & similar organizations from buying up massive numbers of individual homes

This is NOT about Multi-family Rentals

2/
We WANT far more Purpose Built Rental in Canada it should be a cornerstone of policy at all levels of Government

Today it was reported that Core Development Group wants to buy 10K single family homes to convert to Rentals

Core has made this announcement before

3/
Core announced the plan to aquire 4K Single Family Units in 2021

It owns about 550 today, almost exclusively older homes in small cities that were renovated

Even a huge corporation realized Canadian House Prices were Batshit Crazy

This idea has really not caught on here

4/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 14, 2023
Mortgage Rates Are Headed Down: How Far & How Fast?

In the aftermath of the US Federal Reserve Chairman's complete capitulation on interest rates Canada Bond Yields continue to DROP TODAY

Next week we will see all sorts of 5 - Yr Fixed Rates in the 4% range

Big changes

2/
As posted here before a fall in mortgage rates won't match the speed of the rise

Many reasons: high swap costs (which will likely dip) Seasonality: banks like to compete for new home buyers in the Spring Real Estate Market, credit tightening which = higher gross margins

3/
But lower rate are absolutely coming: just not Variable or HELOC pricing because because reductions in the BoC Rate are still months away

And if history is a guide it starts slowly 0.25% reductions each Date

These Bond Yield drops are NOT linear, there will be bumps

4/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
The Day That A Whole Pre-construction Condo Building Building Cannot Close May Come Next Year

The real expert on Pre-Con Condos is @ScrinkoCa & everyone interested in this subject should follow him

In our own business we do observe worrying trends

What the story?

2/
Condo Projects take 5 or 6 years to complete, they are sold to future owners way back before building commenced generally 75% sometimes more of the building MUST be sold and deposits gathered BEFORE a hole starts to be dug to in order to receive financing

Values should go up

3/
In 5 years, the Condo should theoretically be worth a lot more than what it originally sold for

This is a why for the last decade or more a vibrant "Assignment Sale" Market existed: the original buyer profited by reselling the Condo before completion

Times have sure changed

4/
Read 6 tweets

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