Kyrylo Budanov's very interesting interview with Le Monde.
A long but gripping thread:
- Russian missile attacks stem from the desire to declare 2023 "victorious". The Russians did not have real military successes. 1/14
- Russian missiles have a number of shortcomings. They often miss targets. We immediately responded to their missile attacks, targeting military objects. 2/14
- If compared with previous years, from the end of the summer of 2023, we are observing an increase in the number of ammunition produced by Russia. At the same time, we noticed a decrease in the quality of these shells. 3/14
- The intensive use of drones on both sides made it impossible for both Russia and Ukraine to conduct offensive operations. Another factor is the density of minefields, which have not been seen since World War II. 4/14
- We know the solution for drones - electronic countermeasures. Mines require specialized equipment. 5/14
- The northern part of the Black Sea is under the control of Ukraine, as are the gas production platforms. Maritime export corridors, which are very important to our economy, are functioning again, despite the risks. 6/14
- We regularly attack the enemy's military fleet and port facilities, so the Russians had to rush everything to the southeast. They are trying to create a naval base in Ochamchire on the occupied territory of Georgia. 7/14
- In 2023, the first Ukrainian landings on the temporarily occupied Crimea happened, although some considered them impossible. 8/14
- This gives hope - especially to Ukrainians on the peninsula, who have been living under Russian occupation for 10 years, and many of them have already begun to give up. 9/14
- Everyone thought that Moscow had a strong army, but a weak economy. It turned out to be the opposite. The army is weak. Russian economy may be weak, but the country is by no means starving. At this rate, it can last quite a long time. 10/14
- Current Western sanctions are not enough. They should affect the main sectors of the Russian economy: energy, metallurgy and the financial system. 11/14
- More shells and artillery systems are needed. It is not only about modern technologies. We are interested in everything, including old systems that are no longer in use. The issue of quantity is significant. 12/14
- Those who think abroad that they are "tired" of Ukraine will have to take care of the Muscovites when they come to occupy their own territories. 13/14
- The aggressor state of Russia is waging war not only against Ukraine. It is waging a war against NATO, as their propaganda claims from the very beginning. 14/14
Insightful comments from Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR):
A spokesperson for HUR Andriy Yusov reiterated that 462.000 Russian troops are currently fighting against Ukraine. He added that it is not sufficient for a repeated large-scale offensive. 1/9
Earlier, HUR's Deputy Vadym Skibtskyi stated: "462,000 Russian troops are now fighting against Ukraine. 35.000 Rosgvardia soldiers are tasked to ensure regimes in temporarily occupied territories" 2/9
“The number of troops on our territories allows the Russians to carry out rotation: to withdraw those units and subunits that have lost their combat capability - where the number of personnel is less than 50% - to the rear areas." 3/9
Key points from General Zaluzhnyi's press conference:
On Mobilization
- Whom the state will mobilize is not my competence. I need people and weapons to continue the war. 1/
- Everyone must defend Ukraine. This law is precisely for the sake of justice.
- I am not satisfied with the work of the enlistment services, otherwise there would be no need for the new bill on mobilization. 2/
On Mariinka & Avdiivka
- The city of Marinka no longer exists. Ukrainian troops retreated: in some places they dug in on the outskirts of the city, and in others a little further. 3/
Vladimir Putin signed the law on the Federal Budget for 2024-26 and for the first time since the Soviet Union, Russia intends to allocate almost a third of all expenditures to maintaining the army and the military-industrial complex. A quick 🧵1/4
For the next year, spending for "national defense" will be 10.775 trillion rubles (121.5 billion USD) - 70% more than in 2023 (6.8 trillion), 2.3 times more than in 2022 (4.7 trillion), and three times higher than the pre-war 2021 indicators (3.5 trillion). 2/4
Another 3.338 trillion rubles (37.5 billion USD) will be spent on Siloviki - the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the RosGvardia, the special services and the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN). 3/4
A very insightful piece by @MoscowTimes about Prigozhin's plans to win back Putin's favor hours before the mutiny.
At around 5 p.m., a few dozen people gathered for a roundtable in the State Duma’s Minor Hall. 🧵1/12
Sergei Mironov, the head of the A Just Russia – Patriots – For Truth party and a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin, opened the session with a pre-recorded video message that was followed by remarks from several other MPs and functionaries. 2/12
In their speeches, the MPs criticized Moscow’s insufficient support for mobilized and volunteer soldiers fighting in Ukraine, suggesting introducing government bonds and a state monopoly on alcohol to boost the military’s funding. 3/12
Estonians are always on point. "We cannot be tired of the war" says Jonatan Vseviov, Estonian MFA Chancellor. A long🧵
On War fatigue:
Vseviov believes that the narrative of war fatigue is misleading. 1/10
Estonia, like other allies of Ukraine, feels the impact of the war on its economy and social sphere, but it is only a shadow of the impact felt by Ukrainians themselves. 2/10
"If Ukraine were to stop fighting, if the West were to stop supporting Ukraine, there would be no Ukraine, there would be no European security architecture. If Russia were to stop fighting, there would be no war. 3/10
HUR's insights on Ukraine's preparations for Russian attacks on the energy system. A 🧵
ON TACTICS:
- The weather is relatively favorable for us. It is relatively warm outside. so launching rockets in advance, as Russia did last year is not rational for them.
1/14
- The adversary has learned from this. It is most likely that they will begin when there is a higher load on our energy system, and therefore more favorable conditions for attacks. 2/14
- This could happen during the onset of cold weather when electricity consumption reaches peak levels during the autumn-winter period. The Russians are waiting for temperatures to drop below zero. 3/14