Alonso Gurmendi Profile picture
Jan 12, 2024 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I think it's important to situate the Genocide Convention and South Africa's case within socio-legal context in which they operate. I think it will help explain the dissonance between people's excitement at South Africa's arguments and my more cautious view🧵
For starters, we talk about how difficult it is to prove "intent". This is not "natural". It is the result of political processes that made genocide difficult to prove. I've said before: genocide is common; findings of genocide are not. That's not "good"
Genocide is how the world order was (is) created. Most national foundational myths involve genocide. US's "Wild West", Argentina's "Conquest of the Dessert", European "mission civilisatrice" - all genocide. (And all would be hard to prove under the Genocide Convention)
This is bc when the term "genocide" was created states were careful to make sure it would cover the Holocaust (and now Rwanda), but not Jim Crow, and not colonialism in Africa, etc. Only the most obvious genocides could be genocide, not my national mythos!
So this brings us to South Africa's case. It needs to prove that genocide is the "only reasonable inference" from Israel's actions. This is difficult no matter what, because, like South Africa said in its presentation, most genocides are not pre-announced and advertised
This is why Israel made sure today to argue that 1) its genocidal statements were misconstrued and 2) it is taking measures to safeguard civilian wellbeing. It specifically asked "would a genocidal state would go to these lenghts if what it wanted was to destroy the group?"
So, South Africa's job is more difficult than just saying "look, just *look* at what's happening". It needs to convince the Court to deduce this intent from the overall context of the operation. That even these humanitarian measures are part of the genocide
In essence that if you know that 2 million people are starving and you knowingly give them insufficient food/water, while your soldiers kill them on sight and bomb them in "safe places", then you should conclude that your intent is to destroy them despite these measures
But is that the "only reasonable inference"? Israel will argue it is not. At some point, if it gets desperate, it may even concede that the other reasonable inference is an intent to comit war crimes, but not genocide - that is enough: there is no jurisdiction for war crimes...
This is why South Africa has also claimed Israel is not trying to prevent its soldiers from comitting genocide or punishing its officials who incite genocide. Because Israel winning the main claim sort of means Israel will lose the other two
Of course, there is a scenario where South Africa prevails. But it is not a scenario a colonial and Eurocentric international law was created for. South Africa's case is sort of subversive of the sysem in this way
To be clear: this is not bc ICJ Judges are just realpolitik agents of their states. They are serious competent jurists. But they do operate within the socio-legal context of an int'l law that conceives genocide a "once in a lifetime" crime that ought to be very difficult to prove
Int'l law is not an "even playing field", not because there is any kind of conspiracy, but because it was born out of colonialist principles, not to enable liberation. South Africa is challenging this, and they may succeed, but they don't have it "in the bag"
So I guess, don't be pessimistic, but be cautiously hopeful rather than confident

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More from @Alonso_GD

Jun 24
I think Ahmed misunderstands my point. Nothing in my tweet defends Iran’s atrocious human rights record or justifies/minimises 7/10. What it does is break the actual simplistic narrative of the Middle East, that he supports, that ontologically Israel is good and Iran is evil
The more complex reality is that the brutalities Israel has subjected Palestinians to are always held at a different standard than the atrocities committed by Iran against its own population. Something @afalkhatib himself does, as shown by his recent @jubileemedia
In other words, @afalkhatib can’t really show that I minimise atrocities. In fact, I would gladly join him in condemning Iran’s violations against Iranian women, their support of armed groups that directly target civilians, and the authoritarianism of its government.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 23
Lol not me learning through Canary Mission that Zohran Mamdani is the son of Mahmood freaking Mamdani

Mamdani’s work is just excellent. Highly recommend. Here’s some recommendations 🧵
See for instance his postcolonial analysis of the Rwandan Genocide, where he dissassembles the argument that Hutus simply hated Tutsis and reframes it as a result of Belgium’s colonial policies Image
Then of course is his excellent Neither Settler nor Native, an exploration of how the nation state is inherently a colonial entity that creates “permanent minorities” Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 20
When the story of the Israeli genocide of Palestinians is told, it will tell the story of how it cut electricity, food and water from the “human animals” and how Israelis mocked the starving thirsty children with videos of running water taps and lit lightbulbs 🧵
It will tell the story of how Israel used unreliable technology and massive collateral damage - bombs “focused on destruction, not accuracy” - to bomb sleeping children next to their sleeping parents, accused by some algorithm of being Hamas
It will tell how families were forced to flee their refuges once, twice, three even four times, fleeing due to evacuation orders that made no arrangements for them and pushed them into areas that were then bombed by the IDF in a perverse theatricality of insincere “humanity”
Read 16 tweets
Jun 19
I really like it when Zionists try to turn the tables of coloniality on me so to speak because I’m a white Peruvian, because it gives me the opportunity to explain how coloniality works in Latin America - you know, the thing I used to tweet most about before the genocide started
I’ve said this many times before: this isn’t about Israel per se. Israel is not important or relevant as a place or location. The reason why it matters is Zionism is a 19th C remnant of extreme coloniality in the 21st C and I oppose coloniality on principle -and genocide ofc
If Israel were not a colonial apartheid state subjugating and colonising Palestinians and bombing Lebanon, Iran, etc and it were a democracy instead I would frankly not care about its politics
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
Shooting a missile…

- at a hospital...

- that you can’t aim properly, at a military target, but hitting a hospital instead...

- at a military target and causing disproportionate harm on a hospital…

…is a war crime

It doesn’t matter who does it
The problem is this has been normalised for 20 months by Israel and now the cat is out of the box. International Hasbara Law has severely harmed International Humanitarian Law
(I don’t think we have enough information to make a complete determination of the legality of the Iranian strike that damaged/hit the Soroka hospital yet, so read this tweet as me setting out the applicable legal standard for when we do, not as me making a determination already)
Read 5 tweets
Jun 18
Israel’s Letter to the UNSC is interesting in that it accuses Iran of being “substantially involved” in the funding, arming, training and guidance of a “network of terrorist proxies”. To the trained eye, use of this terminology is interesting because of what it *doesn’t say* 🧵 Image
Under int’l law, there are essentially two standards to determine when the actions of an armed group are “attributable” to a state - meaning that the group acts on behalf of the state or as part of its forces: the ICJ’s Effective Control and the ICTY’s Overall Control Test
The Effective Control Test arises from what is perhaps the ICJ’s most famous case: Military & Paramilitary Activities in & against Nicaragua, more commonly known as the “Nicaragua Case”. In this case, Nicaragua accused the US of intervening in its territory through paramilitaries
Read 18 tweets

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