Russia probably preparing another big attack on Ukraine soon:
IL-76 military transport plane seen landing at Seshcha airfield, Bryansk Oblast, likely carrying Shahed attack drones.
Tu-22M3 bombers redeployed 5,000 km, from from Belaya airfield, Irkutsk, to Shaykovka airfield.
IL-76 military transport plane seen landing at Seshcha airfield, Bryansk Oblast, likely carrying Shahed attack drones.
Tu-22M3 bombers redeployed 5,000 km, from from Belaya airfield, Irkutsk, to Shaykovka airfield.
Air alert just declared in Kyiv city an all eastern and central oblasts - threat of ballistic missile attack. Launcher activity likely spotted. 
It's already been four days since the last big Russian attack, so we're entering the next attack window - for mass attack No.4 of Russia's current campaign.
Response to last big Russian attack by West was muted compared to the Dec. 29 attack - there's already a danger they'll just be seen as routine.
They're not, and in the absence of aid, each big attack depletes Ukraine's defenses, making the next one potentially more dangerous.
They're not, and in the absence of aid, each big attack depletes Ukraine's defenses, making the next one potentially more dangerous.
Tu-22M3 strategic bombers spotted taking off from Shaykovka air base in Russia's Kaluga Oblast - only about 210 km north of Ukraine's northern border with Russia (Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts).
Only two Tu-22s in the air so far.
Tu-22s now over Russia’s Oryol Obalst, heading southeast. Present air alerts in north-central and eastern Ukrainian oblasts are connected to threat of ballistic missile launches, however.
Air alert over in Kyiv city. It’s a bit early for a big Russian attack anyway: they usually kick off in the late evening with waves of Shahed flying bombs, followed up by one or more waves of cruise missiles in the early morning, and then a ballistic missile attack.
Small attack by 3 Shaheds, Sumy, Chernihiv oblasts. One Shahed that was headed toward Poltava Oblast has been shot down, another shot down in Chernihiv oblast, a third yet to reach Nizhyn, Chernihiv oblast, is not yet threatening Kyiv oblast and city, so no air alert here.
Slept through air alert in Kyiv city - one Shahed moved through Kyiv Oblast to south of capital, toward west, other looped round north to approach Kyiv suburb of Irpin from northwest. Both seem to have been shot down. Ballistic missile threat earlier on Kharkiv, but all quiet now
Shahed seems to have made it right across northwestern Kyiv before being shot down - slept blissfully through it.
Meanwhile Kharkiv Oblast had SIX air alerts on Jan. 12 alone - and one already today.
Meanwhile Kharkiv Oblast had SIX air alerts on Jan. 12 alone - and one already today.
11 Tu-95ms strategic bombers have taken off from Olenya air base, north Russia.
ETA Saratov Oblast and Caspian-Volgodonsk region firing line estimated at 0400-0430, and if launches made, then missiles will be in Ukrainian airspace at 0600-0700.
ETA Saratov Oblast and Caspian-Volgodonsk region firing line estimated at 0400-0430, and if launches made, then missiles will be in Ukrainian airspace at 0600-0700.
Each bomber can carry up to 8 cruise missiles, so this could be a heavy attack. Possible there will also be Tu-22 raids out of Shaykovka air base, Kaluga Oblast, followed by ballistic missile attacks, and maybe more Shaheds - if Russians follow attack plan similar to recent ones.
If Ukraine had more long-range weapons and air defenses from its allies US and Germany, it could set about disrupting such Russian mass attack plans - but it doesn’t.
Instead, we just have to watch as the Russians wind up to strike a blow, and hope we can take the next punch.
Instead, we just have to watch as the Russians wind up to strike a blow, and hope we can take the next punch.
Tu-95s not showing signs of attacking so far, according to Ukrainian Air Force- it looks like there won’t be a big attack after all - back to sleep!
Spoke too soon! This on Telegram: “🚀 Kh-101/555/55-type cruise missiles launched from 6 Tu-95MSs. Estimated time of entry of missiles into the airspace of Ukraine is 0600 - 0700.”
Current air alert status in Ukraine.
Air alert just started to sound in Kyiv city.
Air alerts spreading to west.
Preliminary reports that five Russian Tu-22 strategic bombers have taken off (they launch Kh-22 “shopping-mall buster” anti-ship missiles with 1-ton warheads).
Also expected: More threats of ballistic missile launches.
Preliminary reports that five Russian Tu-22 strategic bombers have taken off (they launch Kh-22 “shopping-mall buster” anti-ship missiles with 1-ton warheads).
Also expected: More threats of ballistic missile launches.
About 30 missiles incoming that were fired by the Russian Tu-95s over the Caspian earlier. Some already in UA airspace. Explosions heard in Kropyvnytskyi, missiles in Cherkasy airspace, now MiG-31Ks have taken off from Skaykovka air base, Tu-22s nearing firing positions.
Russians look to be making another attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s sir defenses with a simultaneous attack using various types of weapons.
I don’t get the impression they’re using as many missiles as in the Dec. 29 or Jan. 2 attacks, however.
I don’t get the impression they’re using as many missiles as in the Dec. 29 or Jan. 2 attacks, however.
More launches of missiles in south- Kh-31R radar-seeking (2 missiles) towards Berislavsky District of Kherson Oblast.
Missiles over Cherkasy Oblast changed course to Poltava.
Explosions in Kremenchuk. Probably air defenses.
Missiles over Cherkasy Oblast changed course to Poltava.
Explosions in Kremenchuk. Probably air defenses.
Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles fired at Dnipro, UA Air Force says.
Cruise missiles over Poltava have now changed course to Kyiv.
Cruise missiles over Poltava have now changed course to Kyiv.
Three, maybe four Kinzhals fired at Dnipro. Explosions heard in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Dnipro city.
Kh-101/555 cruise missiles now in Kyiv Oblast airspace, approaching from east toward Bilotserkva district in direction of Berdychiv district, Zhytomyr Oblast.
Another Kinzhal launched: 4-5 launches so far.
Some cruise missiles already shot down.
Group of missiles-> Kyiv.
Another Kinzhal launched: 4-5 launches so far.
Some cruise missiles already shot down.
Group of missiles-> Kyiv.
Cruise missiles heading across Zhytomyr Oblast (west of Kyiv) in direction of Starokostyantiniv (air base) Khmelnytskyi Oblast - favorite Russian target.
UA Air Force says Kinzhal fired at Kyiv.
UA Air Force says Kinzhal fired at Kyiv.
Kinzhal at Kyiv may have been false target - nothing on radar just now. Enemy electronic warfare systems operating, probably.
Cruise missiles headed for Rivne- whole country on alert now. Cruise missiles look to have bypassed capital Kyiv and its very effective air defenses. All quiet in Kyiv just now, no sound of air defenses operating.
Six Russian Tu-22 strategic bombers are still in the air.
No Kh-22 missile launches yet, however.
Another two MiG-31Ks have taken off, so another two potential Kinzhal aeroballistic missile launches.
No Kh-22 missile launches yet, however.
Another two MiG-31Ks have taken off, so another two potential Kinzhal aeroballistic missile launches.
Khinzhal(s) fired at Dnipro again.
Two cruise missiles over Rivne Oblast changed course to Lutsk.
One Kinzhal fired at Kryviy Rih.
Cruise missile headed in direction of Chernihiv.
Two cruise missiles over Rivne Oblast changed course to Lutsk.
One Kinzhal fired at Kryviy Rih.
Cruise missile headed in direction of Chernihiv.
Another report of Kinzhals fired in direction of Kyiv, 2 Kinzhals now heading for Rivne.
Cruise missiles now in Volyn, Ternopil and Rivne oblast airspaces, Ternopil missiles heading for Lviv Oblast to west.
More Kinzhals incoming from north.
More Kinzhals incoming from north.
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