Thread by @greg_travis

Excess deaths from disease in those aged 18-44 through September of 2023

Excess is calculated relative to a monthly linear trended baseline from 2015-2019

Q: Why only through September 2023?

A: These are calculated from death certificates where death from disease (ANY disease) is coded on the death certificate as the UNDERLYING cause of death (UCD).

I.e. deaths FROM disease not deaths WITH disease

UCD determination takes time to

finalize. And the younger the demographic the longer it takes

In my experience determining UCD for those under age 45 take an average of three to four months after death

Q: What's that big spike starting in September of 2021? Is that deaths caused by vaccines?

A: No. Less than half (50%) of the under 45 year old demographic had received both initial vaccinations by Sept 2021

The deaths in Sept 2021-Feb 2022 are due to massive infection in the under-45 demographic with both the "Delta" and "Omicron" strains

Note also that after

Feb 2022, deaths per month fall back to their same elevated level as before the Sept 2021-Feb 2022 infection surge

Q: If everyone has either already been infected or already been vaccinated, why are deaths continuing at a 26% higher rate than normal now?

A: Very few (< 10%) of the 18-44 year old demographic has had a recent (w/in last year) vaccination against COVID

Furthermore, prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 does not provide significant protection against death from reinfection

The deaths we see now are in individuals who

have already been infected at least once and in many cases are now on their third & fourth infection

There is no such thing as herd, hybrid or "natural" immunity

Preventing transmission through ventilation improvements, masking, distancing, working & schooling from home are key

@PeterHotez @EricTopol @EvanBlake17 @mehdirhasan @DrEricDing