Young people (those under 45 years of age) are continuing to die of SARS-CoV-2 infections ("COVID") at a very high rate

Yet the increase in mortality among the young gets virtually no notice in the media

Why is that?

@joho @BenjaminMateus7 @dwallacewells @RadCentrism @justin_hart How do we better measure the impact of a disease when it is widely acknowledged that traditional methods of measuring disease mortality are inaccurate?

One tool is "excess death" analysis

This is simply a comparison of current mortality to a historic baseline

IMPORTANT

The US CDC has announced that, going forward, reported SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels will be normalized to an endemic baseline

"Zero" on this baseline will be levels in the previous year

@EvanBlake17 @BenjaminMateus7 @arijitchakrav What this means is that the level of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the environment will be reported as the difference between current readings & the readings of a year ago

If Jan of 2024 reading was 1,000 & Jan 2025 it's also 1,000, Jan 2025 wastewater levels will be reported as 0 (zero)

Luigi Mangione’s manifesto is remarkable in its banality
I say banal because anyone who encountering our health care system has the same experience as Mangione

The same cruelty-for-cruelty’s sake, the same rapaciousness, the same desert of empathy

To wit 1.Unsatisfied pleas to fix his mother’s and his ailments

2.Endless cycles of incompetence and repetition of failed processes that have not succeeded in the past

And have no promise of succeeding in the future

COVID: The Children's Pandemic

January of 2024 was the deadliest January in the last decade and a half for school-aged children Paradoxically, February of 2021 was the least deadly February of the last decade and a half for school-aged children

This is the difference between trying to control viral transmission (February 2021)

And not trying at all (January 2024)

It's measured in children's lives

Two things on this graph

First (blue) are the number of deaths from disease in those aged 18-44 that are in >excess< of what is to be expected

Based on the 2012-2019 deaths from disease in this age group

Second (red) are deaths from COVID as reported on death certificates Whenever the blue area is above the red area it represents deaths from disease above what is expected that are not officially COVID deaths

The question then is: what caused these deaths, if not COVID?

Let's look at the same thing, this time for 5-17yos (school children)

I wrote about this earlier -- this is a video of a wing during the Boeing 777 test program and its failing at 154% of the "design limit load"

154% sounds impressive and it is in a way but perhaps not in the way you might think...

@sameo416 @moetkacik @MCCCANM

https://twitter.com/webflite/status/1800241526729027607

Aircraft structures are designed to meet (or exceed) three different kinds of loads, or stresses, imposed on them:

Design Load: The load the structure is expected to endure in everyday use

Design Limit Load: The load the structure must bear without any type of permanent damage

A friend asked in in a private chat:

"@greg_travis what is the USA covid body count ATM, and how many of those have occurred since January 20th, 2021?"

Since it took me some time to put together my response:, I'm going to amortize my time by sharing it here As of last week there had been a total of 1,192,436 deaths where COVID was listed as having contributed to the death on the death certificate

Of those 702,498 (60%) have occurred since February 1st, 2021

This is a sniper on the rooftop of the Indiana University Memorial Union in Bloomington, Indiana today

I live approximately 10 miles from this spot now. I graduated from IU in 1988

Let me tell you a little bit about this place This is the central campus of Indiana University.

The red arrow points to the sniper's location atop the memorial union.

The memorial union (known as IMU) is the largest university college union in the United States. It is also famous for legionnaire's disease

If you're looking for something fun to do on Eclipse Monday, saddle up to your favorite death minimizer and say:

"You know, influenza's seasonality is driven by the migratory behavior of seasonal waterfowl, not people getting together for office parties during the holidays" Be sure to be wearing a full face shield when you do both to protect yourself against SARS-CoV-2 but also because there's about to be a lot of foaming at the mouth

Because, you see, suggesting that influenza's prevalence is due to circumstances that are entirely predictable as

How SARS-CoV-2 infections are killing children and young adults

They're killing them by in creasing mental disorders including dementia, mania and stress)

They're killing them by triggering death from liver and kidney disease

Yesterday I posted this graph showing that there is a very large excess death burden from disease continuing in young adults in the United States

It generated some controversy The minimizers did not like that I drew a causal inference between SARS-CoV-2 infections (COVID deaths) and excess deaths from disease

"Correlation is not causation" and all that rot

Instead, they insisted the rise in excess deaths were due to ABC (Anything But COVID)

Death certificates listing death from disease other than respiratory disease vs. death certificates listing death from COVID

There is an almost perfect correlation between the two

This should put to rest nonsense that COVID deaths are over-reported

The data shows the opposite Same chart except showing only the 18-44 year old demographic

Here the undercount of COVID's impact on this demographic is even more stark

Excess deaths from non-respiratory disease in this demo are running over 700 per month while reported COVID deaths are just over 100

I've been living (temporarily) in San Francisco for the past month+

I have had the opportunity to spend considerable time at UCSF's Parnassus, Mission Bay & Mt. Zion facilities

Contrasting the behavior of the residents of SF with those of my home in the Midwest it is not hard



To understand the vast gulf between what comes out of UCSF and what the rest of us consider our lived experience, consider:

Of the 593 counties in the United States with a population of 100K or more, San Francisco County is #22 in having the lowest per-capita COVID fatality

I see posts declaring that excess deaths from "age adjusted all-cause deaths" in 2023 are negative popping up

Let's talk about that

First, it is true that all-age, all-cause excess deaths in 2023 are much lower than 2020/2021/2022

I calculate just a 1% increase in 2023 Note that I do not use the statistical trick of "age adjusting" deaths

I consider age adjustment morally reprehensible (it discounts deaths the older the person is who died)

Instead I prefer to list mortality rates by age bands

That's problem #1

Deaths showing COVID as contributing to death vs. excess deaths from disease

Currently the 45-74 year old demographic shows the least amount of excess death relative to COVID deaths

Since this age group sets the national narrative, the narrative is COVID is over

Unfortunately, COVID for other age groups is not over

In particular, the youngest age group (children) show a very large gap between ongoing excess deaths from disease and their "official" COVID deaths

Conclusion?

Deaths from SARS2 infection under-reported in children

Well six months of 2023's data is now final and, unfortunately, past trends are holding steady with regard to excess deaths from disease in children and young adults

2023 will likely close with:

12% increase in deaths from disease in those aged 18-44
14% increase in those 0-17 As of July, the 18-44 demographic was experiencing a surge in deaths from disease with the preliminary incomplete data supporting an intensification of that surge

1/In the USA, what you're experiencing and what you perceive are largely driven by geography and age

This "big picture" chart shows the ongoing progression of the pandemic by HHS regions

It's way too cluttered to be useful as-is so come join me for a deeper dive... Right now we're looking at total excess deaths for all age demographics. That produces a pretty cluttered picture as we saw.

But what happens if we zoom in by Variant?

Let's start with Wuhan...

The initial (spring 2020) Wuhan wave was

Exciting news for my Excess Death Explorer (best excess death explorer on the planet)

1. New signal processing routines (I knew being a licensed HAM radio operator would come in handy)
2. Now has Health and Human Services Regions 1-10

Check it out at: gregorytravis.com/SARS-CoV-2/Cor…
Here are HHS regions 1,2 and 3 (New England, New York, Mid Atlantic)

You can really see different patterns of the pandemic in the YAH (18-44yo) demographic (more at the excess death explorer)

In a normal year:

55% of deaths happen in those over the age of 75
37% happen in those aged 45-74
6% in those 18-44
2% under 18

This is what we mean when we say "children aren't supposed to die"

@Loretta_Torrago @arijitchakrav @19joho In 2021 that changed

51% of deaths happened in age 75
41% in 45-74
7% in 18-44

Be aware that people who are wealthy and powerful are that way because of the status quo (hence the "urgency of normal")

The status-quo aligned forces are underwriting a relentless campaign to relabel "Long COVID" as generically "Long Anything"

This is dangerous The emerging narrative is that >ANY< viral infection can be expected to produce long-term, possibly lifelong, effects

Whether or not that viral infection is SARS2 virus or influenza or the common cold

And that "long" is not only common, it's mild

So stop complaining

1/Watching the senate testimony on Long COVID and I am overwhelmed by the recurrent theme of LC victims and their struggles with simply being believed

My late wife began exhibiting "flu-like" symptoms in January of 2012 of which the primary manifestation was easy exhaustion and 2/a lack of stamina. In the first few months of her illness she was repeatedly told that they could not find anything obviously wrong and that she probably "just had the flu" (literally)

In September of 2012 -- nine months after her symptoms had begun -- I took her to the