Steve Kornacki Profile picture
Jan 14 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
 
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
Half of Haley’s voters self-ID as independents or Dems, and 77% of them have an unfavorable view of Trump. Possible that her own unfavorable spike w/ caucus-goers is tied to her increasing consolidation of anti-Trump vote

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More from @SteveKornacki

Dec 11, 2023
New NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP caucus poll:

Trump 51% (+8 since October)
DeSantis 19% (+3)
Haley 16% (—)
Ramaswamy 5% (+1)
Christie 4% (—)
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:

Trump 63%
DeSantis 12%
Haley 11%
Ramaswamy 5%
Christie 2%
And there continues to be a significant enthusiasm gap between Trump and the others:

Supporters who say minds are made up:
Trump 70%
Haley 34%
DeSantis 30%

Supporters who say they are "extremely enthusiastic" about choice:
Trump 45%
Haley 21%
DeSantis 16%
Read 5 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
New NBC News national poll (11/10-14)

General Election:
Trump 46%
Biden 44%

Biden Job Performance
Approve 40% (⬇️1% from Sept.)
Disapprove 57% (⬆️ 1%)

Biden Handling of Foreign Policy
Approve 33% (⬇️ 8% from Sept.)
Disapprove 62%(⬆️ 9%)
‘24 GOP nomination

Trump 58%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 13%
Ramaswamy 3%
Christie 3%
Hutchinson 1%
Burgum 1%
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16, 2023
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.

The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2416…
Meaning: she (+ Christie) is doing much better w/ independent/non-GOP voters (who play an unusually big role in NH) than with R's:

Self-ID'd R voters:
Trump 55%
Haley 18%
DeSantis 12%
Christie 6%

Independents/Dems
Christie 37%
Haley 28%
Ramaswamy 18%
Trump 7%
DeSantis 5%
In 2000, when McCain blew out W in NH, he won indies 3-1. It turned GOP race into a Bush/McCain battle, but what did McCain in was that W used McCain's indie/Dem support against him, saying that the race was between a real Republican and one propped up by "mischievous" non-R's
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8, 2023
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems:
newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu…
In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
And obviously a similar story in VA -- after a great '21, with Glenn Youngkin winning the governorship and his party flipping 7 House of Delegates seats to gain control of the chamber, Dems re-took the House while R's failed to flip the Senate.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
November 27, 1978: San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Dianne Feinstein announces that Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk have been shot to death and that the suspect is Supervisor Dan White.

A week later, the Board would elect Feinstein the new mayor.
Feinstein was seen as a relatively moderate mayor of a very liberal city. In 1984, under pressure to choose a female or nonwhite VP, Walter Mondale considered Feinstein.

She was asked about it on Meet the Press two weeks before Mondale chose Rep. Geraldine Ferraro instead:
"We have created a monster. It is called the absentee vote. It's the right kind of monster to have."

November 1990: Sen. Pete Wilson (R) is projected the winner of the tight CA Gov. race over former SF Mayor Dianne Feinstein due to his overwhelming strength with mail-in ballots:
Read 5 tweets
Aug 21, 2023
**New NBC News/Des Moines Register IA GOP Caucus poll**

Trump 42%
DeSantis 19%
Scott 9%
Haley 6%
Pence 6%
Christie 5%
Ramaswamy 4%
Burgum 2%
Hurd 1%
Here's how Trump's 23-point lead compares to other leaders in the Des Moines Register poll at this same point: Image
In 2016, evangelicals made up 64% of the IA GOP caucus electorate, with Ted Cruz carrying them 34-22% over Trump, and Marco Rubio at 21%.

But in our new poll, Trump leads by 27 among evangelicals: Image
Read 6 tweets

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