Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
Half of Haley’s voters self-ID as independents or Dems, and 77% of them have an unfavorable view of Trump. Possible that her own unfavorable spike w/ caucus-goers is tied to her increasing consolidation of anti-Trump vote
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One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.
The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00
In 2000, when McCain blew out W in NH, he won indies 3-1. It turned GOP race into a Bush/McCain battle, but what did McCain in was that W used McCain's indie/Dem support against him, saying that the race was between a real Republican and one propped up by "mischievous" non-R's
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems: newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu…
In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
And obviously a similar story in VA -- after a great '21, with Glenn Youngkin winning the governorship and his party flipping 7 House of Delegates seats to gain control of the chamber, Dems re-took the House while R's failed to flip the Senate.
November 27, 1978: San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Dianne Feinstein announces that Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk have been shot to death and that the suspect is Supervisor Dan White.
A week later, the Board would elect Feinstein the new mayor.
Feinstein was seen as a relatively moderate mayor of a very liberal city. In 1984, under pressure to choose a female or nonwhite VP, Walter Mondale considered Feinstein.
She was asked about it on Meet the Press two weeks before Mondale chose Rep. Geraldine Ferraro instead:
"We have created a monster. It is called the absentee vote. It's the right kind of monster to have."
November 1990: Sen. Pete Wilson (R) is projected the winner of the tight CA Gov. race over former SF Mayor Dianne Feinstein due to his overwhelming strength with mail-in ballots: